Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Norbert]

One can see that this is a classic day trader's test pattern.

Interesting also since I noticed what seemed somewhat like the opposite pattern, over longer periods: trades in the 7k -20k range, every 4-5 min or so, driving the price down, in the midst of many smaller volume trades increasing the price. It felt like the natural tendency was up, except for these periodic larger trades. SO now this larger increase felt like balancing that out (to some degree).

 

[Norbert]

didn't look at the seconds. Maybe we should do tick by tick and interpret a different result. Who got level 3 and can see where the orders were coming from?

To which degree can "Level 3" see where orders are coming from? The exchange (like Level 2), or to an even finer degree?

 

[Snoopie]

It seems to me if it was a day trade test pattern then the ave buy price was lower than the ave sell price and they collected a premium rather than paying one ( neglecting transaction cost.) Am I missing something here???

 

[Causalien]

It seems to me if it was a day trade test pattern then the ave buy price was lower than the ave sell price and they collected a premium rather than paying one ( neglecting transaction cost.) Am I missing something here???

Yep. The subsequent sell order is at a price higher than the buy so it was a net positive for the test. I don't see net 100k difference. I only see 20k difference in volume for the full 5 minutes. So some other people followed the trade. Level 3. 4 letter abbreviation of participating MM. I think luvb2b has that if I remember correctly from one of his previous posts. Which means you have to be very cozy with one of the MM.

 

[Norbert]

Level 3. 4 letter abbreviation of participating MM. I think luvb2b has that if I remember correctly from one of his previous posts. Which means you have to be very cozy with one of the MM.

I suppose that is assuming the order came from a market maker, since the orders from retail investors seem to go to an exchange, not to an MM ? Wish luvb2b was still around...

 

[Causalien]

We are assuming that the same person would route the same order through the same exchange dominated by the same market makers who has to take on the opposite bid and that there's only this particular trader on this particular exchange. Only in this condition can we analyze whether or not it is a day trader test. But for normal purposes, judging the volume for me is enough, I'll never make a decision fast enough if I wait for absolute 100% certainty on the information.

 

[redharel]

TSLA going down while volume going up(not a good sign) and that in spite of the huge spike today(still no clue why)
probably 150 on the horizon this week

 

[clmason]

My broker says "on the news wire" there is news of insiders selling and that is the 650,000 trade today. I don't see this validated by other news sources. Anyone seeing this?

 

[Cameron]

Thoughts on why it was down today?
Usually I'm not too fazed by the volitility but with the whole market being up and no real negative news effecting it, I'm quite confused.

 

[uselesslogin]

My broker says "on the news wire" there is news of insiders selling and that is the 650,000 trade today. I don't see this validated by other news sources. Anyone seeing this?

Selling would drive the price down as it tries to find matches from potential buyers. Only buying would drive it up like that.

- - - Updated - - -

On another note that giant trade to me looks like either a typo or a bug in a computer program. No one is going to buy that much stock on a market order on purpose. All he had to do was have a broker run an algo that executes without moving the price. Remember, most the volume on the market comes from computers, not humans.

 

[bonaire]

Could that spike have been an underwriter of the notes (US Bank) "propping it up" to push up again past 162 temporarily? One day slightly below 161.88 is nothing - let's see how the rest of the month shakes out. I now they have sold some of the notes as bonds so they are trading under the pps. Holders will not want to see it go down much more than this point.

 

[MikeC]

There was a trade in AH for 49,300 shares:

 

[Convert2013]

Rough day, but still off the lows. Other than Mr. Party Pooper NYU Professor's comments, someone may know something we don't know.. could be manipulation of the sorts to get ready for news... hopefully positive. One thing for sure I keep seeing more and more Tesla's in my area each week. Another superstar LNKD got hit today, albeit less than TSLA, if it makes ya'll feel better. Cheer up we are still in the 160's!

 

[mershaw2001]

So many of the trades in after hours are 100 share lots, driving the price down by 1.70 right now to 159.00. That, to me, is just computer trading. The lot that was 217 was prob someone real.

 

[fjm9898]

this continued fall AH has me worried.
many of you know much more then i do. But you never know what this stock is actually going to do.

 

[fjm9898]

How much more of a pull back are you guys all expecting? This guy thinks it will come down to the 50 day at $140
Tesla Shares Could Be in Line for Technical Beating - MoneyBeat - WSJ

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

FYI - Dougherty & Co updated estimates for Tesla. more bullish near term outlook now.

 

[Gwgan]

Today was more bizarre tham most but I fear that no new news or announcement shy of Q3 results will stymie the valuation argument and meanwhile detracting news, like problems with battery production—even if it does not relate directly to Tesla—will continue to chip away at the price.
EPA questions chemical at LG Chems Chevy Volt battery plant
Too pessimystic?

 

[Norse]

FYI - Dougherty & Co updated estimates for Tesla. more bullish near term outlook now.

Link or Source?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

this continued fall AH has me worried.
many of you know much more then i do. But you never know what this stock is actually going to do.

How much more of a pull back are you guys all expecting? This guy thinks it will come down to the 50 day at $140
Tesla Shares Could Be in Line for Technical Beating - MoneyBeat - WSJ

Ignore the noise. Even if Tesla looses half or more of its value in the short term for no apparent reason, it won't matter.

The big money won't be here for years. Look at how long it took AAPL to really take off, and note that there were huge bumps along the way. If you believe that Tesla can execute, enjoy the roller coaster ride and the Wall Street people tripping all over themselves.