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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Citizen-T
Active Member
Wow, that was a nice small gain and broke the previous all time high. I put in a sell order at $174 and that was gone real quick when I saw it was in the $172 range. Now to wait for a pull back if any to get back in. If history is any indication of the previous DB upgrade, there would be a slight pull back before going higher.
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Citizen-T
Active Member
Good question. At the moment I feel like I'll let the rest ride. If there is a dip sometime today I may buy some longer dated stuff. Maybe Dec calls? I think a run to $200 by year end is pretty likely given the way that Q3 is shaping up. At the least I want to capture more of the run to the top of this channel. So maybe even just calls for next week.
I have some thinking to do, but since I put some chips in my pocket, I feel like I can take some time to figure it out.
kevin99
Member
It feels the TSLA as we know it is back! It has been absent for about 3 weeks. I sense this is a start of rally for a couple of weeks.
Too bad the mistake of not being able to close out the 100% of short call does limit my gain today. When it was in the $165 range for a long time, I do have the urge to switch to full speed. Everything was done correctly except only 10% get executed. Too big a order so I was not going to let the price slip too much. Does comes back and bit me.
Can't complain though. In any 3 days time frame, I beat the market comfortably.
Too bad the mistake of not being able to close out the 100% of short call does limit my gain today. When it was in the $165 range for a long time, I do have the urge to switch to full speed. Everything was done correctly except only 10% get executed. Too big a order so I was not going to let the price slip too much. Does comes back and bit me.
Can't complain though. In any 3 days time frame, I beat the market comfortably.
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I also see that TSLA can hit $200 by year end. It might be able to do that sooner though, especially if it's a good Q3 report. What I'm trying to anticipate from now until Q3 report is when GS would release another "upgrade" that would drop the stock to get in lower prior to Q3. DB's analysis came after the infamous GS analysis (July 26 vs July 16). So, 10 days away for a flip flop analysis?
Looks like TSLA is making higher highs now and make my $174 sell look too early. Oh well, I'll wait for a pull back still.
Looks like TSLA is making higher highs now and make my $174 sell look too early. Oh well, I'll wait for a pull back still.
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You guys are funny selling out your calls. I am holding, this is the time when you have the highest probability to make a lot of money. Not to say that TSLA won't fall back down by the end of the week, but the odds are definitely favorable for the stock to go up even higher. Breakout trade!!!
Looks like someone has been paying attention:
Tesla Q3 estimates likely conservative, says Northland Securities
Northland said vin numbers have increased to 7000 since the beginning of the quarter, making 6,000+ deliveries likely in Q3. The analyst said Q3 pro-forma earnings estimates look conservative and reiterates its Outperform rating and $230 price target.
Looks like someone has been paying attention:
Tesla Q3 estimates likely conservative, says Northland Securities
Northland said vin numbers have increased to 7000 since the beginning of the quarter, making 6,000+ deliveries likely in Q3. The analyst said Q3 pro-forma earnings estimates look conservative and reiterates its Outperform rating and $230 price target.
Hi guys and thanks for all your contributions. Even though I'm very new to options and don't understand everything you write about, I still enjoy reading it. So anyhow, I was wondering if anyone could share some of his/her knowledge when it comes to using options. I think we will see an increase in TSLA price and especially around the Q3 ER. Let's say that I forecast that stock will be around 210 or so, what option shall I buy if I belive that the Q3 ER is a positive one and I expect the stock to keep going up. Would that be covered calls DEC13 or JAN14 and which is best suited for capturing a positive Q3 ER?
Thank you and happy trading :smile:
Thank you and happy trading :smile:
The best time to buy options in a company like TSLA is when the implied volatility (IV) is low. IV was low over the past week and at its lowest point yesterday. Now might now be that great of a time to buy. If you are trying to play Q3 earnings then wait for the next consolidation/pullback to buy in when IV is low.
I started buying calls last week and kept buying more every day as they got cheaper and cheaper. Yesterday I bought some March14 $250s for $5.90 and they are up 30% today at about $7.50. I would not be buying those same options for $7.50 today, because TSLA is up only 5% and the options are up 30%.
Be greedy when others are fearful. Also, remember that you have to see where the puck is going to be...
I see TSLA at $200 year end as well.
This is why I bought today:
Dec. 175/200 bull-call-spread for $8. Will be 3x by December if Tesla is >=$200. Break even at $183. Toast below $175.
I made the trade on the following assumptions:
75% TSLA at or over $200 post Q3 by December.
15% TSLA somewhere between $175 and $200
10% TSLA below $175
Disclaimer: These are my personal assumptions. They may not be related to reality whatsoever… J
Excellent chance/risk imo. I only used money that I can afford to lose, so I’m ok with the risk of losing out on this trade.
This is why I bought today:
Dec. 175/200 bull-call-spread for $8. Will be 3x by December if Tesla is >=$200. Break even at $183. Toast below $175.
I made the trade on the following assumptions:
75% TSLA at or over $200 post Q3 by December.
15% TSLA somewhere between $175 and $200
10% TSLA below $175
Disclaimer: These are my personal assumptions. They may not be related to reality whatsoever… J
Excellent chance/risk imo. I only used money that I can afford to lose, so I’m ok with the risk of losing out on this trade.
Thanks for your reply Sleepy. I see what you mean, but what I'm not so sure about is if we'll see a considerable pullback. I think at worst we'll see a flatline and or +/- 3% fluctuations. So what that in mind, would you a purchase still be that unwise?
Citizen-T
Active Member
Flatline would be good. Options lose value if volatility decreases (flatline is worst case) and with time. So the longer you wait and the more flat TSLA trades, the cheaper options will get.
It is too early to buy options to play Q3 earnings, IMO.
It is not about a big pullback, but about volatility going down. If TSLA flat lines and trades +/- 3% for a couple of weeks then IV will go down. This is exactly what happened over the past 3 weeks:\
TSLA reached a high of $173.70 about 3 weeks ago and the Dec $200s were sold at $15.00 at the peak. When TSLA was around $167 2 days ago (or 3%-4% below ATH) I was buying the same options for $8; almost a 50% discount (well there is some less time value as well). These options were worth $7.30 yesterday (you can see how much lower they went compared to my $8 even though TSLA finished flat that day). Now they are worth $11.50; they are up 50% today even though TSLA is only up 5%.
That is why I kept talking about buying calls over the last week or so; and have bought many myself.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Well I bought a march call spread of 180-220 a week back (it's been losing value due to IV drop, but is back in green today) and then earlier this week I bought Dec 180 call hoping for a pre-earnings rally (i.e. today). It's up from $14 to $18.4 already and while I'd prefer to keep it going I've set a trailing stop order with $2 as trail amount that should be immune to most short fluctuations, but would net me still 20% or more profit if Tesla comes back down to 165 region.
I sometimes play daily options if there's a dip and yesterday I had two TSLA 165 weekly calls that I put out once it was in green with trailing orders to catch some upside. Ended up being mostly flat market after that so the orders triggered and I made a "whopping" $35 on it
Had I forgotten to put those sells out today they'd be worth $2.1k or so (from initial investment of $520) Anyway, that was never meant to work as a multi day play, but was pure day trading, got my Dec and March calls/spreads for the longer run-up play. Not sure if I'd buy anything today as the jump up probably has already increased IV. Also too bad I didn't go through with selling next weeks 160 put yesterday that I contemplated, but forgot to press send
I sometimes play daily options if there's a dip and yesterday I had two TSLA 165 weekly calls that I put out once it was in green with trailing orders to catch some upside. Ended up being mostly flat market after that so the orders triggered and I made a "whopping" $35 on it
Had I forgotten to put those sells out today they'd be worth $2.1k or so (from initial investment of $520) Anyway, that was never meant to work as a multi day play, but was pure day trading, got my Dec and March calls/spreads for the longer run-up play. Not sure if I'd buy anything today as the jump up probably has already increased IV. Also too bad I didn't go through with selling next weeks 160 put yesterday that I contemplated, but forgot to press send 
sub
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I think TSLA has a shot at 200+ by years end, but short term I think that it will drift back down after the excitement of this upgrade dies down next week. I sold some calls last week so of course i'm hoping this happens, ouch.
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