Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[ckessel]

It is too early to buy options to play Q3 earnings, IMO.

I asked this in the n00b investing thread a while back and this reminded me I hadn't seen an answer . If you were 100% long (e.g. all stocks purchased over a year ago), would you think it's worth it to sell a portion and buy options? Given the tax hit to sell and the fact further gains if you just held are all at the capital gains rate, is there enough upside with options to make it worth selling part of that long term holding?

I'd like to consider buying options, but I've got zero free cash and that's not going to change anytime soon, so my only way to buy options would be to sell my stock.

 

[Gtoffo]

Guys lets not get carried away. FACT: 1-2 weeks back the production was around 550 cars weekly. Best case scenario they are at around 600 cars a week now.

Sleepy you are a machine! Tell us on what you based your prediction! How did you know exactly WHICH bank!? Do they release estimates on given dates?

Today was just what my bull call spread 170-175$ expiring next friday needed!

 

[Convert2013]

I think this is the first of more catalysts to come leading into Q3 results. Guessing we will probably see $200 sooner than later in the year.

 

[farzyness]

I would be surprised if TSLA isn't >$200 after Q3 ER. As many have pointed out prior, the estimates look to be very conservative, and with the GM% nearing 25% without ZEV credits, increasing demand, increased production, rave reviews in Europe, Asian market potential, and anything Model X related will send this stock to $250 territory before year's end.

I really, really think TSLA has LOTS of room left to run for the rest of the year.

 

[Cameron]

Nice to see it keep chugging along today. I think over the next month we will see one of the following scenarios play out..
1. We see it keep climbing up till maybe 200, with everyone sort of anticipating a blowout earnings, but then have earnings maybe not be as explosive. (45%)
2. We see it stabalize around 175-185, with a combination of a lot of + and - reports keeping it fairly flat, then at earnings have it blast through 200. (45%)
3. Something bad happens and it doesn't go anywhere.. still don't think it would pull back much though. (10%)

 

[sleepyhead]

Guys lets not get carried away. FACT: 1-2 weeks back the production was around 550 cars weekly. Best case scenario they are at around 600 cars a week now.

Sleepy you are a machine! Tell us on what you based your prediction! How did you know exactly WHICH bank!? Do they release estimates on given dates?

Today was just what my bull call spread 170-175$ expiring next friday needed!

Where did you get your "FACT" from? It looks like they were already producing above 600/week a couple of weeks ago. How do you know 550 is fact?

As far as which bank, I just make educated guesses and banks do not release estimates on given dates. It was just logical in my opinion for DB to do so, since their last PT upgrade was prior to Q3. And what better time to release a bullish research report than after the Fed said that the Party has been extended. If that wasn't enough then you also have TSLA in a technically bullish consolidation pattern, and the stock price happened to be at the bottom of the channel.

It is all educated guesses on my part, but that is exactly what I would have done.

Well, except that DB's numbers are way too conservative and quite frankly wrong.

 

[aznt1217]

Man I should've bought those 180 October calls lol

 

[Convert2013]

I would be surprised if TSLA isn't >$200 after Q3 ER. As many have pointed out prior, the estimates look to be very conservative, and with the GM% nearing 25% without ZEV credits, increasing demand, increased production, rave reviews in Europe, Asian market potential, and anything Model X related will send this stock to $250 territory before year's end.

I really, really think TSLA has LOTS of room left to run for the rest of the year.

Now now, let's not get irrationally exuberant.. Let's give some of us time to get the dough to plunk down before the next big leg run-up

Although I was secretly hoping for Tesla to reach $250 before year end..

 

[redharel]

those who have long calls or stocks not for the long run need to think about PT now.
tommorow we have options expiration and only god knows what will happen.

BTW the volume is very disappointing for new highs

 

[aznt1217]

I'm sticking with my EOY target of $200, like I wrote on Aswath Damodaran's blog. But this recent movement is making me reconsider my strategy. There are still an extreme amount of hurdles to consider for the rest of the year.

 

[sleepyhead]

BTW the volume is very disappointing for new highs

Absolutely horrible volume. In the first two and a half hours of trading it only managed to exceed the total full day volumes of the last seven consecutive trading days.

 

[Norbert]

Just bought a small number at $177.55 and sold them at $177.77. Thought that would be neat thing to do.

 

[Convert2013]

I swear that guy Cramer has fried his brains doin crack with all that money he made in the market pimpin companies, I mean pumping companies. The guy can't sit still... He just called Jim Mcnerny (CEO of Boeing) one of the best CEOs in the world. NOT. I hope no investor takes this guy seriously, especially with any TSLA calls.

 

[sleepyhead]

Just bought a small number at $177.55 and sold them at $177.77. Thought that would be neat thing to do.

Be careful doing this, because if you are trading with unsettled cash then you are in a good faith trading violation and may be forced to trade with settled cash for the next 90 days if you get 3 good faith violations in a 12 month period. Fidelity did this to me a while back, haha. Because I was scalping pennies like you did here. It takes 3 days to settle cash, so watch out.

 

[Norbert]

Hey, does it want to go to $200 today? I need to replenish my supplies...

 

[redharel]

Absolutely horrible volume. In the first two and a half hours of trading it only managed to exceed the total full day volumes of the last seven consecutive trading days.

when you taking new highs you're not looking to compare the volume of previous days but previous record days

 

[Norbert]

Be careful doing this, because if you are trading with unsettled cash then you are in a good faith trading violation and may be forced to trade with settled cash for the next 90 days if you get 3 good faith violations in a 12 month period. Fidelity did this to me a while back, haha. Because I was scalping pennies like you did here. It takes 3 days to settle cash, so watch out.

Does this also apply to margin accounts? I did in fact intend to make a gain, and wasn't expecting it to go much higher...however just touched $179.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

After Sleepyhead made his predictions I bought a Dec 180 call just to have some rally material if the stock does start to move up pre-Q3. Now that it has gone to $179 I've set a trailing sell order on Dec 200 call as it's almost at the same price my original 180 call was to construct a delayed call spread that will be virtually risk free and is about 600 in the profit right now. This way I do limit my maximum profit to $2000, but at close to no risk that's a bargain. If the stock moves down tomorrow or early next week I might buy back the 200 at a discount and have effectively reduced my 180 purchase price

 

[SuryaDham]

If you were 100% long (e.g. all stocks purchased over a year ago), would you think it's worth it to sell a portion and buy options? Given the tax hit to sell and the fact further gains if you just held are all at the capital gains rate, is there enough upside with options to make it worth selling part of that long term holding?

Instead of selling your stock you could sell very deep in the money calls against your stock. For example Jan2015 40s. They have a delta of 0,985.
That would free up most of your money for buying other options.
It depends on the country in which you live whether it makes sense or not (tax-considerations) and on the type of account you have. In some countries you are taxed in the year in which you sell an option for the whole amount you sold the option for. In others you are taxed on the difference when the option expires or you buy the option back.

 

[sleepyhead]

when you taking new highs you're not looking to compare the volume of previous days but previous record days

Volume is very high. It was around 5 million the past few days and it is already at 10 million; looks to be 15 - 20 million today. Were you expecting 50 million?

There is absolutely nothing wrong with the volume today. Are you trying to do your best Debbie Downer impression today?