Good
Too late to buy puts, but you never know that is why I'm holding on to half the puts. It is house money so I don't care but I wouldn't be buying more tomorrow.
I might be buying calls tomorrow though, depending on the situation.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Good
Too late to buy puts, but you never know that is why I'm holding on to half the puts. It is house money so I don't care but I wouldn't be buying more tomorrow.
I might be buying calls tomorrow though, depending on the situation.
I did the same thing except on the reverse side. I got the calls with SOME house money. I was going to go all in, but really wanted to wait for this fire to shake out.
I was saying IF, as in assuming that's true (not saying it is), the natural question would be why did it get a 5.4? And so some logical person would compute that this fire isn't a big deal and selling the stock down to $170 or $160s like some on this forum are suggesting would be a stupid move. Instead I would be buying at $175-$178...
sundaymorning
Active Member
Sleepy, congrats on your play and as always, good analysis. However, one thing I do want to point out is that despite the fire incident, it goes to show how much faith investors have in TESLA and its CEO. Even during today's darkest hours, investors flocked in to stop the stock from dipping below $175. This is not a regular car company and Elon is not your average Joe CEO. Good luck to everyone. I have my money where my faith is--with Elon and TESLA.
InTheShadows
Active Member
@sleepyhead - I have to admit this is the first one of your megapost that made me somewhat sad. However I am extremely glad you shared it because it is noted and I will know next time how to play an incident like this. It's great seeing how seasoned investors handle situations like this.
What is your take on the bounce at the end of the day? It seemed to me like it was a really strong bounce and had loads of volume and being that it was off the 20 day MA, really strengthened my thoughts that this was the bottom and that it would go up from here. Could you elaborate on why you don't think the bounce will carry momentum to take us back to the upper 180's?
Edit: ... back to the upper 180's this week?
What is your take on the bounce at the end of the day? It seemed to me like it was a really strong bounce and had loads of volume and being that it was off the 20 day MA, really strengthened my thoughts that this was the bottom and that it would go up from here. Could you elaborate on why you don't think the bounce will carry momentum to take us back to the upper 180's?
Edit: ... back to the upper 180's this week?
Sleepy - thanks a lot for generously sharing your insight and even plan! I've bought some Oct11 and Dec $190 calls just before the close. Probably I should sell them off the first thing tomorrow morning and buy in some puts.
I'm just a newbie to options and TA and larned a lot from this thread. Please keep sharing your strategy here.
I'm just a newbie to options and TA and larned a lot from this thread. Please keep sharing your strategy here.
That's why he only kept half his put position. Good sense if you are a day trader type.
Not trying to answer for sleepy..he is much more savvy than I. But my two cents: GS will be coming out any time with their 'report' which will downgrade the stock but raise the price level to say
$145. In addition, while people on wall street know about this the main street media may start reporting it so all the 'people on the street' could see Matt Lauer tomorrow saying ....'Changing subjects....Tesla Motors in the news again....One of their cars caught on fire'.....Ouch. Neither of these things may happen...but if they do.....
I think if the Boeing 787 can have its APU start battery housing assembly redesigned, re-tested, re-certified, and retrofitted in 4 months for ~100 airplanes in service (after two Lithium-ion fire incidents), a worst-case (technical solution to address this fire incident) scenario for Tesla - a car with much less safety implications on a per unit basis- should be much easier. Question is: In the worst case situation for Tesla what is the technical solution if any and what will be the cost for implementation of this solution for the 15k + cars delivered if needed to be recalled and for implementing the new design changes for production vehicles? This may have an impact on future earnings. Tesla is still a fledging company and does not have deep pockets (like Boeing or GM when this happened to the Volt). Best case scenario is no action needed (we are all hoping here). Until Tesla finishes their analysis jointly with NHTSA the stock will probably be highly volatile, regardless of early release of earnings and other positive news. I think.
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Didn't really get the logic here. Could you please elaborate? In what kind of situation buying calls would become an option?
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Can anybody shed a light pls how I can get rid of this annoying Yahoo! Finance stuff from my post?
I really don't get it when people say not to buy calls b/c IV is so high right now. This was also said earlier in the week when IV was in the 50's and now it's in the 60's. In the past around ER, IV was close to the 90's. So I agree, it's not super low but does anyone really expect the stock price to be stable for a few days to allow IV to come down? Especially now that we're getting closer ER?
I asked this earlier in the day and will ask again. How do analysts choose the timing of releasing their upgrades/downgrades? I agree that they aren't trying to manipulate the stock price, but they obviously have a motive for releasing when they do. For example, DB upgraded after the no taper announcement. And if we're expecting GS to downgrade in the next few days while the stock is already vulnerable then they have to have some motive.
I asked this earlier in the day and will ask again. How do analysts choose the timing of releasing their upgrades/downgrades? I agree that they aren't trying to manipulate the stock price, but they obviously have a motive for releasing when they do. For example, DB upgraded after the no taper announcement. And if we're expecting GS to downgrade in the next few days while the stock is already vulnerable then they have to have some motive.
Citizen-T
Active Member
So, as I mentioned earlier, I unwound all my hedges (well, actually, nearly all of them, I forgot about a couple puts I had in a different account). At the time I was pretty pleased with myself, because, I not only completely side-stepped today's fall (which was the intention) I even made a little money thanks to the spike in volatility.
Now that I've had some time to reflect on this, I think that this was the wrong decision. The point of those hedges was not to make money, it was to lock in the massive gains that I had booked to date during a period where I didn't really know what the stock was going to do. I had a level at which I wanted to get more bullish and start preparing for the Q3 report. When I saw the stock dip below that level today, I wanted to capture those gains.
In the excitement of the moment, I had forgotten why I was hedged in the first place: I wanted to avoid the uncertainty of this pre-earnings void. Now, I'm just as uncertain as ever. I don't even know that the all powerful lower bar of the channel is going to hold, but worse I'm almost completely exposed to that uncertainty. This was a mistake.
I hope that it works out that TSLA rallies hard tomorrow, or that it at least shows strong support at the lower end of the channel. If it falls out of the channel on this news, then this trade is definitely going on my "bad trade" list.
I think my biggest mistake was that I tried to call the bottom. I know better than that. What I should have done is unwound at most half my hedges when we reached the bottom of the channel. Then I should have waited to see how things played out a little longer. I may not have captured 100% of the drop if Elon was able to fix everything with a tweet, but again that wasn't the point. The point was just to hold some insurance.
Plainly, I got greedy. I may get lucky tomorrow, but either way I need to learn from this bad trade.
Now that I've had some time to reflect on this, I think that this was the wrong decision. The point of those hedges was not to make money, it was to lock in the massive gains that I had booked to date during a period where I didn't really know what the stock was going to do. I had a level at which I wanted to get more bullish and start preparing for the Q3 report. When I saw the stock dip below that level today, I wanted to capture those gains.
In the excitement of the moment, I had forgotten why I was hedged in the first place: I wanted to avoid the uncertainty of this pre-earnings void. Now, I'm just as uncertain as ever. I don't even know that the all powerful lower bar of the channel is going to hold, but worse I'm almost completely exposed to that uncertainty. This was a mistake.
I hope that it works out that TSLA rallies hard tomorrow, or that it at least shows strong support at the lower end of the channel. If it falls out of the channel on this news, then this trade is definitely going on my "bad trade" list.
I think my biggest mistake was that I tried to call the bottom. I know better than that. What I should have done is unwound at most half my hedges when we reached the bottom of the channel. Then I should have waited to see how things played out a little longer. I may not have captured 100% of the drop if Elon was able to fix everything with a tweet, but again that wasn't the point. The point was just to hold some insurance.
Plainly, I got greedy. I may get lucky tomorrow, but either way I need to learn from this bad trade.
I agree with you. It is a good time to buy stock, but short term weekly options require impeccable timing.
+1 waiting for mega post here.
Every situation is different though so next time this strategy will not work.
I don't see tsla in high 180's because it was there post downgrade with no fire. Now with fire it is worth less.
I took a big bet on direction with way deep otm put options that are going to expire in two days.
I would not be selling calls and buying puts. I would actually do the exact opposite and sell puts and buy calls.
But it all depends, I trade on feel and I won't know my strategy until tomorrow and it changes by the minute. I invest 100% with my gut. I am really good at math, but never look at the Greeks, if or other junk stats that will make your head spin. I just buy some here some there. Whatever I am feeling at the moment. I like to wing it. As long as it works more than 50% of time, then I should win big. Key is to go with your guy every time and no exceptions. Don't think just trade.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
I find it remarkable that local firemen were able to extinguish the fire so easily. I believe there has been a large unknown on the table of what happens when a lithium ion pack is damaged badly enough to catch fire.
Well, it would appear we learned that today: A small town fire department with a single truck put it out before it engulfed the passenger compartment with no special training or equipment. Basically, it would appear dealing with an electric car fire is no big deal.
Honestly, I view that as a positive thing for the stock as it takes a big unknown off the table.
Well, it would appear we learned that today: A small town fire department with a single truck put it out before it engulfed the passenger compartment with no special training or equipment. Basically, it would appear dealing with an electric car fire is no big deal.
Honestly, I view that as a positive thing for the stock as it takes a big unknown off the table.
Thank you for this, you perfectly articulated how I feel. I also booked profits on my hedges at what turned out to be the day's bottom, but it was not worth the anxiety I feel about tomorrow and Friday.
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