Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Kipernicus]

Okay, back on topic. What does a close at $173 mean? We aren't out of the channel by a lot, what are the probabilities of us seeing another $10 down day tomorrow?

I thought 173 was pretty good all things considered. So many doom and gloom news articles came out, and lots of people in the office joking about my car on fire.
I bought a few calls on the downswing yesterday and haven't decided if I'm going to try and buy more tomorrow. My gut tells me that we won't be down as much tomorrow. (but that's my gut, and not nearly as well trained as sleepy's gut)

 

[hershey101]

@Sleepy, DaveT etc. al, So my trendline (reposted below) shows slightly lower prices than what was posted here before... I'm still relatively a noobie at technical analysis, any ideas as to why the two charts differ slightly? I'm using the the bottom of the the price before the Q1 quarter, and then the dips (GS dip, and the other dip we had) to guide my drawings

 

[blakegallagher]

Sorry if this has already been asked, Is this getting news coverage in Europe? Surely not to the extent that it is here?

again sorry if this has been hit on I have read most of today's post but may have missed a few.

 

[gym7rjm]

Man I hate to feed the fire, but this video really has a similar feeling to a viral video marketing campaign. Except with the purpose of defamation.

The videos seem so authentic, but have some element that seems too good to be true.

1. Beer Faucet Prank: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEDw4w0_dZg - No way a group of guys would have access to thousands and thousands of dollars worth of spy camera equipment.
2. Jimmy Kimmel Twerking Fail: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CddMD3QqTFs - Broken glass, girl catching fire... too good to be true.
3. Cheating Wife's lover makes 2nd story window escape: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi-p7gdPSNE - again, too good to be true

Those are just a few videos among many others, but the all seem genuine at first. Until the truth ultimately comes out. These videos got a lot of media attention and were reported as truth for a while. While I won't bet the house on it being staged, it really wouldn't surprise me in this day and age. We're talking about billions of dollars on the line. While not everyone on Wall Street has bad intentions, there will always be greed, and people go to great lengths when a lot of money is on the line. Look at the incident involving the Fed tapering news and how trades happened in Chicago precisely at 2 pm, 7 milliseconds earlier than it is possible for the news to have reached Chicago http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ten-last-weeks-fed-news-7-milliseconds-early/

I've got my news tracking algorithm to alert me if anything about arson pops up!

 

[hershey101]

Here is my concern... This talk of a setup might actually give ideas to shorts etc. who have been burned to do something similar... Think about it, 2 model S's on fire in the same week? Now we are talking about a free fall in the stock price b/c it looks like a systematic problem. even if the 2nd one is later revealed to be a setup, the short term damage to the stock and the public image of the company is something very hard to recover from.

 

[Cameron]

Here is my concern... This talk of a setup might actually give ideas to shorts etc. who have been burned to do something similar... Think about it, 2 model S's on fire in the same week? Now we are talking about a free fall in the stock price b/c it looks like a systematic problem. even if the 2nd one is later revealed to be a setup, the short term damage to the stock and the public image of the company is something very hard to recover from.

Good point. I vote no more talking about the fire unless Elon releases a statement or a legitimate source proves it was a setup. We aren't helping the situation by discussing it more then it needs to be discussed.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Oh, I'm absolutely convinced that entrenched, powerful interests / potential enemies of Tesla Motors could go to this or greater lengths to combat a competitor that has the potential to revolutionize the entire planet and make the combustion engine extinct...but in this case I am highly skeptical.

However, the random poster on twitter just replied "local LEO's" meaning local law enforcement officers. Still no source = not trade-worthy info.

I agree. Several things bother me
1. You hit an object with your 90k car and don't immediately stop to see damage, no you keep driving until you encounter trouble. Not human nature to do this
2. Large metallic only description. Not flat fat round, tall square just large and metallic. I am sure it was looked for and not found
3. The driver is not available for any interviews to clarify
4. Filming the flaming wreck while driving and immediately identifying tesla from side, he is a lot better than most. Not looking to see if people escaped. I would have been drawn to flames and not been able to identify the car within a second even though I own it
5. What happened to this object the driver hit it was too large to pass under the car is there mechanical damage the whole length? Would he have heard a single bang or the object being dragged. I have gotten things could under cars and that is what I have heard
this could explain the delay in release of info

 

[Norse]

DaveT was pretty spot on as usual yesterday. Whats your thoughts for today?

 

[Cameron]

I agree. Several things bother me
1. You hit an object with your 90k car and don't immediately stop to see damage, no you keep driving until you encounter trouble. Not human nature to do this
2. Large metallic only description. Not flat fat round, tall square just large and metallic. I am sure it was looked for and not found
3. The driver is not available for any interviews to clarify
4. Filming the flaming wreck while driving and immediately identifying tesla from side, he is a lot better than most. Not looking to see if people escaped. I would have been drawn to flames and not been able to identify the car within a second even though I own it
5. What happened to this object the driver hit it was too large to pass under the car is there mechanical damage the whole length? Would he have heard a single bang or the object being dragged. I have gotten things could under cars and that is what I have heard
this could explain the delay in release of info

Actually disregard what I just said because chickenlittle brought up some good points..

Who is the driver of the car? Why wasn't he interviewed? Also what are the chances the one owner that gets involved in a highly publicized event with Tesla isn't part of this forum?
Also what did he hit exactly? Wouldn't that be one of the first things that people would check?

 

[NigelM]

Actually disregard what I just said because chickenlittle brought up some good points..

Who is the driver of the car? Why wasn't he interviewed? Also what are the chances the one owner that gets involved in a highly publicized event with Tesla isn't part of this forum?
Also what did he hit exactly? Wouldn't that be one of the first things that people would check?

I'm thinking that ckessel was right.....

Seriously, check out the main discussion thread. The driver was identified and interviewed by the authorities. Not surprised he didn't want to be interviewed by the press. Statistically more likely that he's not a forum member (TMC is popular but we have 9,455 members and there's double that number of Model S). He was driving on the highway at speed; it wouldn't have been a good idea to stop and walk back looking for what he hit.

 

[RobotGrease]

My chart says we closed right at the bottom of the channel. That is, if we extended the channel down to just about the lowest conceivable reference point (7/17, day after GS dip).

My take is that tomorrow's action, and more specifically its close, is critical. Any lower and retaining the channel will be very improbable, from a charting standpoint. We could of course still go lower, but then re-establish a new uptrend in a parallel channel. Lets hope we get back in the current channel tomorrow, closing above about 174.50 at the least or more ideally the next level at about 178.50.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I'm thinking that ckessel was right.....

Seriously, check out the main discussion thread. The driver was identified and interviewed by the authorities. Not surprised he didn't want to be interviewed by the press. Statistically more likely that he's not a forum member (TMC is popular but we have 9,455 members and there's double that number of Model S). He was driving on the highway at speed; it wouldn't have been a good idea to stop and walk back looking for what he hit.

Sorry have to disagree I would look atDAMAGE to my car. Unfortunately already in that position so I do know that

 

[JRP3]

Wow, how about the conspiracy nuts start their own thread of insanity? Thanks.

 

[kevin99]

Mercury news says there will be a story on the site this afternoon regarding the fire. I may be quoted there.

It is out:

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24233996/viral-video-burning-model-s-sends-tesla-stock

Will be on the print paper tomorrow as well.

It is an honor to be listed with our legendary Bonnie.:smile:

 

[Norse]

It is out:

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24233996/viral-video-burning-model-s-sends-tesla-stock

Will be on the print paper tomorrow as well.

It is an honor to be listed with our legendary Bonnie.:smile:

Nice work both you and Bonnie!

 

[ckessel]

Waited out the day despite having funds available because I had no idea what to do. Things seemed relatively stable this afternoon, so I suppose the Nov 16 options for after the conference call look good. Something shorter seems appealing for the rebound, but how short is shorter? 2 weeks? The drop was awfully quick, but it's hard to imagine it going up as quick without positive news rather than just the negative events like the fire slowly fading away.

 

[Citizen-T]

I must say, I've been really impressed by how level-headed the mainstream media has been about this. We've come a long way since the Volt battery fire. Writers just seem more educated.

 

[RobotGrease]

Citizen-T, you think we will hold the channel or break down? or...?

I think we will hold the channel or breakdown only to form a new parallel channel somewhat lower.

 

[Convert2013]

I am perfectly OK for TSLA being at these levels for a while. 190 + was pretty darn high. Analysts pumpin it up too much. I think we may cross 200 again after Q3. We have been too overheated. This event is a huge reminder that Tesla is more a car company (brick and mortar) than a tech company. Brings expectations down to earth.

 

[brianman]

Wow, how about the conspiracy nuts start their own thread of insanity? Thanks.

I already made it for them and got a frownie from a mod.

- - - Updated - - -

Nice work both you and Bonnie!

Oh sure, bonnie will talk to the press but not to the lowly TMC members.