Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Citizen-T]

Yea I don't see how they do it. I can't follow every little up and down movement on a daily basis or it drives me crazy. So far I've done more harm than good trying to predict weekly movements with options.

Heh, the guy that gets #10,000 doesn't even mention it.

 

[kevin99]

Yea I don't see how they do it. I can't follow every little up and down movement on a daily basis or it drives me crazy. So far I've done more harm than good trying to predict weekly movements with options.

Oh and WAHOOOO post 10000!

Man I was trying to be post #10000, but then it append to my post #9999!

Timing is a difficult thing. However If you get one correct, the streak tend to continue.... until inevitably it breaks. That why I let my instinct take over today once I got both bottom and top correct, but not letting my guard down, though.

Hard to do it consistently.

 

[joefee]

Robert…welcome to the 1M page views club!

Joe Fee
Model S Delivery Update

 

[Larken]

It does seem to be tracking the market pretty closely. The fact that it began the day with an uptrend does signal strength. As long as it can hold the green line by the end of the day, I think it will be a good sign for the rest of the week.

This is what I am thinking too. When it was at 187 I'm kicking myself for not selling half of my weeklies after seeing it plunge to 180, but then again my idea behind buying the call on friday was that I thought this is going to be a good week for TSLA. Trying to profit from weekly options seems to be quite stressful and requiring tons of luck. Maybe I shouldn't be greedy and sell one of the contracts and let the other one ride for free on the house, seems like that's a common strategy amongst the experienced here.

 

[kevin99]

Wow, strong moving pass $183! I am perfectly in sync low-high-low-high so far today! How many total days of action we will see in just one morning?

Very likely we will see $185 again today.

Alright, too good to be true. At $184.5, getting in the price zone that I reestablished the hedging position for my longer term (multi-weeks) options. Feeling less nervous now.

When I don't have hedge, I feel naked.

Still waiting a bit more up move to established my very short term weekly hedge.

Only if I can repeat this power of moving the market .... I capture a $10+ (!) move today: $181-> 186 ->181-> $185.

 

[Gtoffo]

Alright, too good to be true. At $184.5, getting in the price zone that I reestablished the hedging position for my longer term (multi-weeks) options. Feeling less nervous now.

When I don't have hedge, I feel naked.

Still waiting a bit more up move to established my very short term weekly hedge.

Only if I can repeat this power of moving the market .... I capture a $10+ (!) move today: $181-> 186 ->181-> $185.

How are you hedging your weeklies Kevin? I have some 180$ weekly calls....didn't hedge earlier today but If it gets too good to be true again I might do it now.

 

[kevin99]

Alright, Don't want to wait till $185. I pull the trigger reestablish the all the hedges. I am done for a while unless market again begging me for more trades.

 

[Gtoffo]

BTW: TSLA's graph today is almost an exact mirror of the Nasdaq composite index...

 

[kevin99]

How are you hedging your weeklies Kevin? I have some 180$ weekly calls....didn't hedge earlier today but If it gets too good to be true again I might do it now.

I sold Oct1 @190 for $2.7 this time. Last time sold for $3.1.

 

[farzyness]

Here's a daily chart of TSLA with its price channel and parallel channels through today 2:00 PM.

Fixed!

 

[kevin99]

I have the duplicate chart issue too.
How to fix:
Make sure you are in "Advance Edit" mode. There should a section that list all the attachments. Delete one them.

- - - Updated - - -

Alright, Don't want to wait till $185. I pull the trigger reestablish the all the hedges. I am done for a while unless market again begging me for more trades.

Hmm, would this be a jinx that it won't hit $185? Anyway glad that I did what I need to do and be peace. $184.75 is good enough for me.

- - - Updated - - -

I sold Oct1 @190 for $2.7 this time. Last time sold for $3.1.

At $184. Ironically I look at my Day P/L, my profit from selling the weekly calls is more than the weekly long calls!!

 

[farzyness]

I have the duplicate chart issue too.
How to fix:
Make sure you are in "Advance Edit" mode. There should a section that list all the attachments. Delete one them.

Thanks Kevin!

 

[FredTMC]

$186! Faster than I thought but just as I expected, at least some panic cover buying. And is a short squeeze coming?

- - - Updated - - -

I am all set up full speed today. No hedging.

I am still expecting GS "upgrade" soon... Then we will have a really big opportunity before early nov earnings call. Thoughts?

 

[Norbert]

The previously mentioned note by GS may already have been it. They might become more careful.

We keep approaching $185...

 

[Cameron]

I am still expecting GS "upgrade" soon... Then we will have a really big opportunity before early nov earnings call. Thoughts?

+1 on hearing everyone's thoughts on GS since it keeps being mentioned.

 

[sleepyhead]

+1 on hearing everyone's thoughts on GS since it keeps being mentioned.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see GS raise its price target to $250 and put a buy rating on the stock. Probably will not happen, but you can't be wrong forever and keep your job (although you can be wrong for a very long time).

 

[surfside]

i agree sleepy. i know folks here have been hoping that another goldman announcement would lead to a buying opportunity pre-earnings; i personally don't think that is likely at this point. i think a new goldman report pre-earnings would likely be to adjust their price target up...

 

[redharel]

you have to be damn stupid(or a motive driven) to publish a report just before earning especially on a tricky company like tesla

 

[kevin99]

We keep approaching $185...

It is a jinx. We may not see it today.

Consolidating in the $185-183 range. It is actually healthy. I haven't read into much of the government and debt ceiling stuff. Baring major surprises from the broad market, I am optimistic about this week.

Even if we just be bounded here, it provide a solid level for continued rally in the next few days.

The stock seems exhausted from the 2 swings today.

 

[Cameron]

That's what I was wondering. If they came out with a ridiculously low PT of 125 or something <100 it might cause the stock to dip, but I doubt it would stay down, especially going into earnings. On the flip side if they came out with a positive report with a 250 PT I think it would have a lot stronger effect. I mean I have no idea how GS works, or what they're trying to accomplish but if they are trying to make money, using Teslas momentum to their advantage seems like the obvious choice. Just my .02