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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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CyberDutchie
Active Member
Volume doesn't seem to be that high for this much of a drop, I wouldn't call this a sell-off today. Maybe I'm wrong?
We can only hope. I have a feeling though that any significant piece of negative press is going to bust the $160 support wide open...
Gtoffo
Member
Today it feels like the perfect storm. I feel like those analysts were just waiting for a day in which the market went down 1% to drop a bomb and kill the stock. The have been wrong since the stock was at 45$ and have been probably taking massive flak for that price target. At this point all they can do is stick to it and hope they will eventually be right.
Right now we are in a sort of inverse short squeeze. Going up a lot of bulls went all in with TSLA pushed by the seemingly unending growth. Once the correction came because of external factors (debt ceiling + fire) all those longs started losing money....and eventually closing positions as things went bad. A lot of individual short term investors are paying dearly right now and nobody wants to touch the stock until things settle down. No buyers + desperate sellers = CRASH.
The good news is.... I think the Morgan Stanley note is very telling. Institutional investors have been waiting for something like this to happen for a long time and might be stepping in now to buy.
Right now we are in a sort of inverse short squeeze. Going up a lot of bulls went all in with TSLA pushed by the seemingly unending growth. Once the correction came because of external factors (debt ceiling + fire) all those longs started losing money....and eventually closing positions as things went bad. A lot of individual short term investors are paying dearly right now and nobody wants to touch the stock until things settle down. No buyers + desperate sellers = CRASH.
The good news is.... I think the Morgan Stanley note is very telling. Institutional investors have been waiting for something like this to happen for a long time and might be stepping in now to buy.
This is the first time I've thought of adding to my position since $45...
At $45 Tesla traded at an Enterprise Value of 2x 2013 Revenues.
If a ramp to 60K cars/year is achieved in 2014. Then at $18B EV, Tesla is trading at 3x 2014 Revenues. For comparison the established auto-makers, Toyota, Ford, etc have an Enterprise value of 1x revenues. I don't think we'll see 1x revenues valuation for at least 20 years. And probably not even 2x revenues for ten years.
At $45 Tesla traded at an Enterprise Value of 2x 2013 Revenues.
If a ramp to 60K cars/year is achieved in 2014. Then at $18B EV, Tesla is trading at 3x 2014 Revenues. For comparison the established auto-makers, Toyota, Ford, etc have an Enterprise value of 1x revenues. I don't think we'll see 1x revenues valuation for at least 20 years. And probably not even 2x revenues for ten years.
The volume to price drop ratio is what's bugging me too. I would have expected over 12 million shares by now to justify the price movement today alone. This holds true for the last 3 days as volume never hit 12 million. The last time we saw this big of a single-day selloff, volume was over 24 million.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Funny you say this. I actually considered buying common shares for the first time since $30 today. I didn't, I bought calls, but I considered it.
I haven't sold a single share, have been adding over past two weeks. TSLA has been trading too much like a tech company than an auto company. For large scale manufacturing companies (cars not laptops or phones) it takes time to grow sales. Elon can make huge improvements on production over other companies on processes and due to difference in the product, but he is no magician. There are physical limits due to reliance on a large supply chain. The tech-auto hydrid nature of Tesla has caused confusion in the market on valuation as its an experiment in being first of its kind. I'd take the rosiest price target ($240s) and the somewhat lower price target in the $90's (not BA's) and average the two for sanity's sake.. which makes TSLA around $165'sh as of today. Post ER I expect that to change for the better.
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TSLA is now below a $20B market cap... Please correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that certain funds have regulations on the size of the companies they can invest in (eg. can only buy into companies above a $20B market cap.).
If TSLA closes down blow these mark, does that mean they have to sell their holdings? If so, how long do they have to liquidate (or put another way, how many days does TSLA have to close below this mark before they are forced to sell at market orders?)....
If we stay around $160, wouldn't this cause another wave of selling to occur?
Also, as a side node, I want to buy but am completely out of money. I was thinking we would see a huge rally going into earnings, especially given the fire sale that gave people opportunities to buy below $170...
If TSLA closes down blow these mark, does that mean they have to sell their holdings? If so, how long do they have to liquidate (or put another way, how many days does TSLA have to close below this mark before they are forced to sell at market orders?)....
If we stay around $160, wouldn't this cause another wave of selling to occur?
Also, as a side node, I want to buy but am completely out of money. I was thinking we would see a huge rally going into earnings, especially given the fire sale that gave people opportunities to buy below $170...
kevin99
Member
Back at $163.5. It does feel much better than last time it was, which is what, 15 minutes ago?
Hope I don't breathe a sigh of relief too soon. A lot of emotions is mixed here so it will remain volatile.
I just think it is pretty cheap shoot for ML and BA to throw price target of $45 today. They are irrelevant and will remain so. Can't imagine how their clients looking at them. Dare to short this $163 stock all the way to $45? A lot of profit potential! Brilliant call! Or wait till $45 to get in? This is comical. How these analysts expect investors to act on their report????
Hope I don't breathe a sigh of relief too soon. A lot of emotions is mixed here so it will remain volatile.
I just think it is pretty cheap shoot for ML and BA to throw price target of $45 today. They are irrelevant and will remain so. Can't imagine how their clients looking at them. Dare to short this $163 stock all the way to $45? A lot of profit potential! Brilliant call! Or wait till $45 to get in? This is comical. How these analysts expect investors to act on their report????
My guess is that you are absolutely correct. Think of the timing of the release of these irresponsibly, overly negative analyst reports. Demand falling off for the Model S based on what facts or research? Everything we've seen points to massive pent-up demand for the car for the forseeable future. That is the most inane comment I have seen from a professional analyst in a while, and I've seen plenty. It's one thing to price a stock differently than the vast majority of the market, but to price it at almost 1/4 what the market said it was worth is just one thing:
An attack.
TSLA is under attack right now, make no mistake. This is the pouncing that the shorts who are very,very bitter about Tesla Motors *existence* let alone its success, and the institutions who make their living from the oil and ICE auto industry, have been waiting for. They smelled blood in the water two days ago, used algos to probe our defenses, and then launched a full on assault on the stock.
It's an attack, plain and simple.
I am regretting some of my Nov call option gambles which are now firmly in the red, but my common stock is largely a 3-5 year play and I will not be selling it.
Short-term? We're getting eviscerated by people with a lot of money, and a lot to lose from Tesla's success.
I also think that Elon showed a chink in his armor with this Germany reveal, which is turning out to be a PR fiasco. He should not have announced what he did there regarding market focus. He got a little cocky, and forgot his comments have material affect on the stock in any public setting. That's a goof I'm sure his PR team is reprimanding him for right now. I would be if I was on his staff.
It is never pleasant to be under attack like this. The choice is up to each investor whether to run for the hills or stick it out.
Good luck to all.
Yeah those analysts have probably been given their layoff notices already and are desperate. No logic whatsoever. With that said I think engineers would make better analysts ;-)
Can you elaborate on this? What exactly did he say that was bad for TSLA? I haven't listened to the entire video yet...
I'm not sure exactly what he's referring to, but I definitely had a (nationalistic?) reaction to some of what Elon said in Munich. More specifically, "we're investing a lot of time and effort in Germany" (which might suggest we're not doing so in the U.S. which still has lots of SC to get done, etc.).
Also, there's "Why do you have to 'spend all this time and effort'? Is the market not meeting your prior expectations and so you 'have to act'?"
Chickenlittle
Banned
i dont know how many here with options still but i took "advantage" of todays action to sell my calls for march with strikes between 150 and 210 for the same number of calls of jan 2015 at strike 200. actually pocketed cash. i dont know how long to recover but with longer time will make them more valuable with a recovery
This is just silly.
Merrill Lynch could say what ever they want, at the end of the day thats not going to effect Tesla making an incredible product and selling like mad. Nothing is wrong with Tesla right now, ironically I was just thinking the other day how they are stronger then ever. Earnings might not be a blowout, or maybe it will, regardless its not going to be bad. Like Fluxcap said, this is purely just an attack at weak longs, a reverse short squeeze per se. The fire incident was the first time I was ever truly worried as that was an actual event involving the company, but look how that resolved its self in a few days time. Same deal with the GS ordeal. This will blow over, just hang tight.
Merrill Lynch could say what ever they want, at the end of the day thats not going to effect Tesla making an incredible product and selling like mad. Nothing is wrong with Tesla right now, ironically I was just thinking the other day how they are stronger then ever. Earnings might not be a blowout, or maybe it will, regardless its not going to be bad. Like Fluxcap said, this is purely just an attack at weak longs, a reverse short squeeze per se. The fire incident was the first time I was ever truly worried as that was an actual event involving the company, but look how that resolved its self in a few days time. Same deal with the GS ordeal. This will blow over, just hang tight.
Huh? Germany is an important market. It'd be stupid not to acknowledge that. It'd be like not acknowledging the US market or the China market.
How on earth is Elon acknowledging reality a bad thing?
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