Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Norbert]

After hours trading peaked at about $65 and is now above $63...

Here a few quotes I found most interesting:

U.S. demand expected to exceed 15,000/year; global demand likely 
above 30,000/year

We are pleased with the strong global demand for Model S and are currently receiving orders at a rate greater than 20,000 per year worldwide.

From Q4 to Q1, total gross margin rose from 8% to 17%,

we are reaffirming our prior guidance of a gross margin of 25% in Q4 2013, assuming zero ZEV credit revenue.

For the full year of 2013, we expect to exceed our prior target of 20,000 worldwide deliveries and feel comfortable raising guidance to about 21,000 deliveries.

Tesla is now a successful company! Congratulations Tesla!

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I just read the quarterly report. Do I understand that they are CASHFLOW positive for Q1? They mention that cash is at 231 M$, 10 M$ more, even with the DOE payment of 13 M$ !!!

They were profitable.

 

[MikeC]

How much better is this than we were expecting? What happens tomorrow?

 

[ckessel]

What happens tomorrow?

Prediction: I feel a bit of a hangover from one too many celebratory bourbon toastings to Tesla's Q1.

 

[Citizen-T]

What happens tomorrow?

The streets in Shortville run red with the blood of those that did not heed the Tsunami sirens...

 

[brianstorms]

Where is the earnings report published?

I see this news, but no official Tesla report:

Electric Earnings: Tesla Earnings Blow Past Expectations; Shares Surge

 

[avatar]

The streets in Shortville run red with the blood of those that did not heed the Tsunami sirens...

Yes. Tomorrow might be a day for the history books. I wonder if we will see a squeeze tighter than the VW squeeze? There have got to be major margin calls going on at brokers.

 

[CyberDutchie]

What happens tomorrow?

Maybe we'll start to see the first few upgrades and/or target price increases? One by Morgan Stanley seems appropriate, with their current target price at $47.

 

[Enadler]

Looks like I missed my entry point!!! I am still long but was hoping to add to my position! It looks like i will have to keep waiting!

 

[Causalien]

I feel so vindicated after defending Tesla for the past 5 years. Having nothing but dream and rainbows to retort with. I can now finally tell people. Tesla is a legitimate business that makes money. Except, those who took pleasure in destroying me will probably hide now instead of giving me the satisfaction of a win. Oh well. Good Game to all with the foresight.

 

[Russell]

According to JP, Apr 25 2103: Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank

"When you eliminate the combined impact of the warrant liability reversal and the non-recurring ZEV credit sales, Tesla's Q1 net loss from recurring business activity will be about $30 million, as opposed to the anticipated GAAP net income of roughly $2 million."

Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank - Seeking Alpha


Actual Q1 GAAP income was $11.2million!

 

[Teslawisher]

Looks like I missed my entry point!!! I am still long but was hoping to add to my position! It looks like i will have to keep waiting!

Me too.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Great report. Their guidance is basically for an average production rate of ~420/week for Q2, but only about ~375/week deliveries because of the delay to ship cars to Europe.

~4,900 deliveries in Q1 means that April was ~1550 built cars and ~1450+ cars delivered to customers (depending on how many of the 100 loaners they built in April).

Total hours are down as much as I modeled. Gross Margins not as high as I hoped though. They have a lot of work to do on the supplier side to bring down costs.

Regulatory credits is well within the range I modeled.

But with the so/so margins EPS is a bit less than I hoped (as opposed to expected).

Revenue was quite a bit higher than I modeled, indicating the underlying margins are the real problem here. Their supplier costs might be the problem if they are running massive overtime while achieving the required flows. No way to delve that deep that I can see.

 

[jeffro01]

Great report. Their guidance is basically for an average production rate of ~420/week for Q2, but only about ~375/week deliveries because of the delay to ship cars to Europe.

~4,900 deliveries in Q1 means that April was ~1550 built cars and ~1450+ cars delivered to customers (depending on how many of the 100 loaners they built in April).

Total hours are down as much as I modeled. Gross Margins not as high as I hoped though. They have a lot of work to do on the supplier side to bring down costs.

Regulatory credits is well within the range I modeled.

But with the so/so margins EPS is a bit less than I hoped (as opposed to expected).

Revenue was quite a bit higher than I modeled, indicating the underlying margins are the real problem here. Their supplier costs might be the problem if they are running massive overtime while achieving the required flows. No way to delve that deep that I can see.

For better or worse I have been using your analysis as part of my guidance. So... My question is, were you happy or neutral with the Q1 numbers overall? I know you said great report, which it was, but I'd like to get your gut reaction compared to your analysis.

Jeff

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

The big news is the increased guidance. To make 21,000 sales in 2013, they are going to need to ramp up deliveries in the second half to an average of maybe ~450/week.

- - - Updated - - -

For better or worse I have been using your analysis as part of my guidance. So... My question is, were you happy or neutral with the Q1 numbers overall? I know you said great report, which it was, but I'd like to get your gut reaction compared to your analysis.

Jeff

The biggest thing is the increased guidance for 2013, and the current reservation rate being in excess of 20k per year. I don't see how that doesn't move the stock higher. They are profitable even without underlying margins hitting their targets, and they are being pessimistic with the regulatory credit guidance. It might go down, but it wont go away.

 

[Enadler]

I think the big key from here on out is the continued margin improvements. If they can keep that moving in the right direction this year will be amazing. I think demand will take care of itself and the factory seems to have hit its stride.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Starting to wonder about my credits model. It predicted ~$33m in credits in Q4 excluding Section 177 states and CAFE credits, vs ~40m actual.

If we assume that the ratio remains the same, the $57m in non-177/CAFE credits projects to ~$69m, with ~$68m being actual.

 

[wts13]

Brand new investor (disclaimer: car in sig is my parents, I drive a Taurus :smile: )

Bought 4 shares of TSLA yesterday. Looks like that was a good idea.
The question is if I buy a bunch more now that we know Tesla is a good, sustainable company (as if we didn't know that already)?
Questions, questions, but there are no real answers when it comes to stocks, just opinions

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

According to JP, Apr 25 2103: Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank

"When you eliminate the combined impact of the warrant liability reversal and the non-recurring ZEV credit sales, Tesla's Q1 net loss from recurring business activity will be about $30 million, as opposed to the anticipated GAAP net income of roughly $2 million."

Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank - Seeking Alpha


Actual Q1 GAAP income was $11.2million!

Yep, $0.00 EPS excluding the one-time warrant liability reversal, but including the $68M ZEV credits. So without those you are looking at a $68M GAAP loss. They will have to work hard at those margins and deliver more cars (with lower ASP, both because mix and fewer ZEV credits) just to keep around $0.00 EPS in Q4.

Not to say I am unsatisfied by the earnings or the market reaction, just that you posted that $30M number without even questioning what it's worth.

 

[DonPedro]

Brand new investor (disclaimer: car in sig is my parents, I drive a Taurus :smile: )

Bought 4 shares of TSLA yesterday. Looks like that was a good idea.
The question is if I buy a bunch more now that we know Tesla is a good, sustainable company (as if we didn't know that already)?
Questions, questions, but there are no real answers when it comes to stocks, just opinions

It doesn't help knowing that Tesla is a good, sustainable company when the rest of the market knows, too. So the question you must ask after seeing what the stock price goes to tomorrow is: Does the market still underestimate Tesla? A much harder question to answer.

I know my answer will probably still be "yes", because I have bought the share to hold for 5-10 years while Tesla grows into the next Apple or Amazon (or GM if you will). But there is no certainty in that.