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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Can we stop with the "this doesn't belong here" comments? If it's a waste of time to post information which might be relevant, then surely it's even more of a waste of time to spend a page arguing about whether or not something belongs here. If you don't like it, just ignore the post and move along.
Yes I realize I'm guilty of the same right now with this very post. But the last couple weeks I've seen this same argument happen many times and it's a complete waste. Mods feel free to move my post to the "bickering about what should and shouldn't be included in the investor thread" post. Because that's what mods are for, not people complaining in the thread itself. Discussing what belongs in this thread is a waste of time, discussing the possible ramifications of a news event for the stock is not.
Gtoffo said:
Ah, well, that is more interesting then. There are still many reasons the car could be there, though, and I think jumping to conclusions might be unwarranted.
Just want to share my two cents about TSLA's price movement for the last week.
TSLA crashed from 184 on Monday. It had about an $11 range on Tuesday ranging from 166-177 but finishing in the red for the day. It hit the bottom hard at 160 on Wednesday and finished at 164.50. Thursday we saw a relief rally where it managed to make up most of the losses from Tuesday and Wednesday. On top of that, it had great price action after hours where the last trades were above 177. Today, pre-market trading began at 176 but dropped to 174 by the time the market opened and from there kept dropping only to give back most of yesterday's gains. The intraday saw some buying from the lows and it managed to edge up to finish the day just below 170.
We're obviously seeing support and resistance levels tested along with the moving averages. On the low end, we're seeing higher lows. But at the same time, we're seeing lower highs. Going out into the next week, it appears that we're seeing the formation of a pennant, at least at in the very short term. Going further though, the pennant seems to point exactly to the day of earnings. Coincidence?
Just based on what we're seeing develop, I don't think TSLA will be back above the 180s until after earnings due to the amount of resistance we're seeing on the high end. I doubt we'll see TSLA dip below 160 considering how hard it hit that level. So we'll probably be in the 170s going into earnings, barring anything that comes out that swings us in either direction in a big way.
With that said, I think the Q3 earnings report will make or break TSLA in the short term. It's the deciding factor to break the resistance above 180 and ushering us into the 200s and beyond or dragging us below 160.
Thoughts?
TSLA crashed from 184 on Monday. It had about an $11 range on Tuesday ranging from 166-177 but finishing in the red for the day. It hit the bottom hard at 160 on Wednesday and finished at 164.50. Thursday we saw a relief rally where it managed to make up most of the losses from Tuesday and Wednesday. On top of that, it had great price action after hours where the last trades were above 177. Today, pre-market trading began at 176 but dropped to 174 by the time the market opened and from there kept dropping only to give back most of yesterday's gains. The intraday saw some buying from the lows and it managed to edge up to finish the day just below 170.
We're obviously seeing support and resistance levels tested along with the moving averages. On the low end, we're seeing higher lows. But at the same time, we're seeing lower highs. Going out into the next week, it appears that we're seeing the formation of a pennant, at least at in the very short term. Going further though, the pennant seems to point exactly to the day of earnings. Coincidence?
Just based on what we're seeing develop, I don't think TSLA will be back above the 180s until after earnings due to the amount of resistance we're seeing on the high end. I doubt we'll see TSLA dip below 160 considering how hard it hit that level. So we'll probably be in the 170s going into earnings, barring anything that comes out that swings us in either direction in a big way.
With that said, I think the Q3 earnings report will make or break TSLA in the short term. It's the deciding factor to break the resistance above 180 and ushering us into the 200s and beyond or dragging us below 160.
Thoughts?
I think more weak longs and fund managers have exited over the past weeks, and bad news have given many opportunities for shorts to do their damage on TSLA. Although a lot of the bad news/ negative sentiment has waned (and hence some recovery of the stock) we still have no real catalyst to get the price in the $180 + region going into ER just yet. I sincerely think we would have been closer to the 180 region today if it hadn't been for the incessant mis-guided panic articles about Elon's opinions on TSLA valuation. And that sentiment was actually started by Reed Hastings of Netflix earlier this week with NFLX valuation, and it inevitably had an effect on the 4 key high-multiple stocks, including TSLA to a degree. Thanks to Curt Renz who actually told the true story in comment section for the CNN article that brought out one of those BS stories this morning: Elon Musk: Tesla's stock price is higher than we deserve - Oct. 25, 2013 . Let's see what developments the weekend brings, especially any upgrades or comments by analysts late Sunday night or early Monday and that will set the tone for next week. I do expect to hear from analyst(s) next week who have been largely quiet the past few weeks throughout the turmoil. Guessing TSLA will trade between high $160's and $175 next week,absent any major news like you say.
One last but not least point: With so many bulls on this forum that see 99% eye to eye and outside of this forum as well, the TSLA bull has gotta continue. The world is onto something new, something big.
900 vehicles per week?
My first post after months of reading daily. Got my Model S in December and started buying the stock 2 weeks later!
Yesterday I was in Fremont at the factory Super Chargers and talked to a very nice employee of Tesla.
I asked him how many cars are being made per week and he gave the prepared answer of 550.
I next asked how many shifts are being used. He told me THREE.
Is this news? When I took a tour of the factory in August I was told only 2 shifts were being used and I saw their goal was 60 cars per shift.
The employee yesterday also said that although they are using 3 shifts the factory is shut down for a few hours each day.
So I can't help but assume the shifts are 7 hours each and hope the production is 3 shifts @ 60 per shift @ 5 days/week.
900 cars per week?!
Any comments or corrections will be greatly appreciated.
My first post after months of reading daily. Got my Model S in December and started buying the stock 2 weeks later!
Yesterday I was in Fremont at the factory Super Chargers and talked to a very nice employee of Tesla.
I asked him how many cars are being made per week and he gave the prepared answer of 550.
I next asked how many shifts are being used. He told me THREE.
Is this news? When I took a tour of the factory in August I was told only 2 shifts were being used and I saw their goal was 60 cars per shift.
The employee yesterday also said that although they are using 3 shifts the factory is shut down for a few hours each day.
So I can't help but assume the shifts are 7 hours each and hope the production is 3 shifts @ 60 per shift @ 5 days/week.
900 cars per week?!
Any comments or corrections will be greatly appreciated.
Like many on here, I am definitely bullish with TSLA for the long term and see it blasting past $220 before the end of the year. But this is the short term thread after all and I am looking to protect and lock in profit in the short term.
I see a few scenarios that happening for the next week. 1) Assuming no negative analyst/GS news comes out, we can see TSLA consolidating in the mid-170s with a possible pop to the upside the closer it gets to the narrow end of the pennant. 2) If negative analyst/GS news comes out, we'll be catching falling knives which leads to 3) Based on the chart and current channel, any negative news can bring tremendous selling pressure that will leave us revisiting the 150s.
As far as earnings goes, I'm not confident about seeing a run up into earnings this time around. This is a gut feeling but if we see TSLA up big before the close on the day of earnings and Tesla just meets analyst guidance or barely beats for Q3 and under promises for Q4 and beyond, I think after hours that day will be a blood bath that will continue into the next day.
Being long term and very bullish, I know that Tesla is going to change the world in a big way which will leave the other autos in the dust, I am a believer. At the same time however, I like to make money with the short term movements of the stock and the difficulty with TSLA is how volatile it is and honestly, it is extremely difficult to time because of how much of a rule breaker it is.
Found this bit of news browsing this morning. Elon apparently says Tesla will sell 10K cars in Germany alone before 2015. I don't see him quoting 10k cars in the article. If true, the "1/4 factory floor space already being used" comment he has made in London truly indicates clearing the way for production readiness for 100K to 125K cars for 2014.
My guestimate for 2014:
US: 35 K
Germany: 10K
Rest of Europe: 15K
China: 20K +
Other regions: 2K
Total: 82K +/-
The "Other regions" would be really part of the total margin of error. And the "+/-" could be in the 10% to 25% with slight bias on the + side. If he guides towards these type of numbers, stock will react strongly.
Tesla eyes annual sales of 10,000 cars in Germany: CEO in paper - Yahoo Finance
My guestimate for 2014:
US: 35 K
Germany: 10K
Rest of Europe: 15K
China: 20K +
Other regions: 2K
Total: 82K +/-
The "Other regions" would be really part of the total margin of error. And the "+/-" could be in the 10% to 25% with slight bias on the + side. If he guides towards these type of numbers, stock will react strongly.
Tesla eyes annual sales of 10,000 cars in Germany: CEO in paper - Yahoo Finance
Here is the original article quoting Elon selling 10K cars.
http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/artic...onier-Tesla-will-deutschen-Markt-erobern.html
The comments for this article shows its going to be an uphill battle for Tesla in Germany. Let's get started.
http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/artic...onier-Tesla-will-deutschen-Markt-erobern.html
The comments for this article shows its going to be an uphill battle for Tesla in Germany. Let's get started.
Norbert
TSLA will win
My attempt to translate the direct quote: "I bet that from the end of 2014 forward, we'll be able to sell 10,000 cars annually here."
A word of caution: while the context of the article's preceding sentence suggests "here" refers to Germany, I wouldn't completely exclude the possibility he could have meant Europe, unless there is another source confirming just in Germany.
My mother-in-law and her friend are visiting from the Netherlands. While they live in the Netherlands, they live close to the German border and have a wide circle of friends in Germany. I am taking them both to Century City on Sunday to Test Drive a Model S.
Thats all I have, but those test drives tend to make impressions.
Elon is convinced that once Tesla has built the 40 to 50 SC across germany, people will be ordering the Model S more easily. He mentions to produce and sell 250k/year cars worlwide.
The whole interview will be in tomorrows edition of "Welt am Sonntag", one of the well-known sunday papers. I will buy tomorrows edition at 10:30 am and get a translation on to the forum as soon as everybody gets up on the home turf of Tesla Motors. Could somebody please get me the best translating platform as a reply to this post. Thnx
The whole interview will be in tomorrows edition of "Welt am Sonntag", one of the well-known sunday papers. I will buy tomorrows edition at 10:30 am and get a translation on to the forum as soon as everybody gets up on the home turf of Tesla Motors. Could somebody please get me the best translating platform as a reply to this post. Thnx
Good point...but if he is actually talking 10,000 in all of Europe by end of 2014, then we're in trouble.
borat99
Member
Now Reuters is reporting it "Tesla eyes annual sales of 10,000 cars in Germany: CEO in paper" http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/26/us-tesla-germany-idUSBRE99P04320131026
also picked up by fly on the wall Stock Market & Financial Investment News: Educated Investors Get Live Stock Market News Feeds & Alerts at The Fly On the Wall
also picked up by fly on the wall Stock Market & Financial Investment News: Educated Investors Get Live Stock Market News Feeds & Alerts at The Fly On the Wall
The link to the interview by "Welt am Sonntag" under a seperate thread:
10/27 2013 Press Release in german newspaper
Fast Laner
10/27 2013 Press Release in german newspaper
Fast Laner
The Q3 estimates thread seems to be closing in on a sub-6000 cars delivered. The current 570/week production wouldn't seem to guide any dramatic rise in Q4 guidance and Elon has stated a couple times he'd like to be at 800/week by the end of 2014, so given production today and 800/week by the end of 2014, I'd guess that'd mean a best case guidance of around 35,000 for 2014.
All good numbers, but none particularly blowout numbers so I'm not sure there's any reason to think TSLA is going to budge much one way at earnings. Perhaps a long term flat channel is in our future?
All good numbers, but none particularly blowout numbers so I'm not sure there's any reason to think TSLA is going to budge much one way at earnings. Perhaps a long term flat channel is in our future?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Its all about guidance moving forward - 2014 and beyond. Are they raising guidance?
That was sort of the point of my estimating 2014 production at 35,000.
Somewhere, now waaaay back in the post count, someone mentioned 40k as being a blow the doors off guidance and 35k as probably eliciting more of a "meh" from the market. Given Elon said they're looking for 800/week at the end of 2014, I don't see any way for them to guide to 40k. Guiding even to 35k wouldn't be conservative since that's an average of 700/week over the entirety of 2014.
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