Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[aznt1217]

Multiple days like this shows that the market is not for everybody. Manage your risks, be nimble with your profits, and understand your investment horizon.

 

[FANGO]

I didn't think it would happen today but 120 was broken. Intraday low so far is 119.81. The bear pennant is in full force. If the pennant continues to play out, the pole ends around 108.

I think I would count that as a bounce off 120...barely dipping below it for one or two trades then heading back up to 121 seems bouncy to me.

Of course, who knows if it holds.

 

[mnx]

Bought some $130 calls here (when the stock was ~$120). Quite a move today!

 

[Sunnyday]

I've been saying this for awhile, but not many seemed to agree with me. I have seriously considered writing a letter to Elon to offer him my services at a discount because I believe in the company and in him, but he is shooting himself in the foot. I said it before and I'll say it again: he is a fantastic leader, but this is a war for the future of the Earth against an entrenched and formidable enemy (big oil), and no General can win a war without good junior officers. He needs reinforcements badly, and he needs to recognize his "growth edges," let go of PR, and focus on the things he does best.

Until he does, I see PR as a vast, gaping liability that will continue to extract value from Tesla's brand in the marketplace. It's like a political campaign -- when you say nothing, your opponent controls the conversation. They need an ad budget and a holistic marketing campaign other than "word of mouth," not to generate demand for the product, but to protect general perception of the brand.

So, I'm literally praying for Elon to hire some smart reinforcements because I truly want this company to change the world my son will live in for the better, and they can do it, but not just with a great product. Elon is a brilliant guy, but he can't do everything. He needs to build a real PR team that exists outside the self-centered Silicon Valley bubble that none of the world cares anything about, a team that is capable of reacting in real-time with relative independence from oversight by Elon. That requires trust and delegation.

None of this has anything to do with underlying fundamentals of cashflow / margins / cost / supply structure of Tesla, which are strong as ever. I don't give a crap about battery factory costs, they just do not matter at this point in time.

Also, I'm still ordering my Model S next month.

Cheers,
Flux

Edit: Also since someone asked about the 200-day Moving Average, here you go:

View attachment 35858

Do you come from PR as well? Luckily, I've been out of the business for a few years after doing it for about 20 yrs. I'd offer my counsel to Elon gratis because I too want to see him succeed. I'm a fan. I don't know if it's fair to pin all the blame on the current PR team. I don't know them and don't know the circumstances they're operating under. Often, when PR teams are ineffective, it's not the fault of the PR people but instead is often the fault of their managers or the executives, or of the executives taking bad advice. Ultimately, the buck stops with the CEO. The CEO is the one who should set the strategy and approach and then the PR team implements.

 

[Twiddler]

I would be really, really surprised if there is not a statement/news out of Tesla HQ today, however it will likely not occur until after the market closes (which has been their style in past). Not literally betting on it with short term options, but tempted.

 

[TSLAopt]

Thanks. If things play out as I expect, I'll have an opportunity to reenter at a point that will give me a higher long term expected value. But yes, I recognize that the self-kicking could start much earlier than 1-2 years. It could be 1-2 weeks if things magically turn around. Good luck all. I think those who continue to hold long and strong will still enjoy higher prices 2 years from now than we see today.

Yeah, somehow I think the low was reached just below 120 and we will never see that mark again. I'm not one for predictions but I just have a weird feeling this was the absolute bottom and shorts will begin covering with the circuit breaker being triggered.

 

[FANGO]

I would be really, really surprised if there is not a statement/news out of Tesla HQ today, however it will likely not occur until after the market closes (which has been their style in past). Not literally betting on it with short term options, but tempted.

Statement about what?

 

[justthateasy]

I think I would count that as a bounce off 120...barely dipping below it for one or two trades then heading back up to 121 seems bouncy to me.

Of course, who knows if it holds.

True about the uncertainty of 120 or 121 holding, there is still a lot of distance to go until the length of the pole completes in the bear pennant. According to the trend line, TSLA could easily climb back up to the 127 and slowly trade downwards to 120 again.

 

[dm33]

I would be really, really surprised if there is not a statement/news out of Tesla HQ today, however it will likely not occur until after the market closes (which has been their style in past). Not literally betting on it with short term options, but tempted.

Why is today a day of particular importance? I am really really surprised they haven't released a statement so far. I have no reason to think today is the magic day they'll break their silence. I now subscribe to the theory that they're working with NHTSA and are afraid or restricted from releasing a statement until some conclusion is reached.

 

[Twiddler]

Why is today a day of particular importance? I am really really surprised they haven't released a statement so far. I have no reason to think today is the magic day they'll break their silence. I now subscribe to the theory that they're working with NHTSA and are afraid or restricted from releasing a statement until some conclusion is reached.

The NHTSA silence is a reasonable conclusion, but I really cannot believe that the suspension height issue is intentional. The debate regarding that rages on, but I doubt that communication about this to owners (i.e. an intentional change in the vehicle's functionality) would be restricted by the NHTSA. If intentional, it would have been in the release notes, as I am sure that they were aware that owners would rapidly discover this change. Bad PR to wait for the first business day, but I bet that is what is happening, with a delay until a suitable patch can be pushed out, which would likely be today.

 

[Causalien]

Everywhere I looked. People want to buy at $100 (people who are not TA) or $108 (200 day for TA people.)

If we don't hit the 200 SMA today, it'll be tomorrow and some announcement will happen. Whether NHSTA force a recall, or ELon saying they couldn't comment because of the investigation and everything's actually just muddle through, instead of the "all hell break loose" sentiment we are seeing.

Either way, straddle the heck out of this.

 

[justthateasy]

Everywhere I looked. People want to buy at $100 (people who are not TA) or $108 (200 day for TA people.)

If we don't hit the 200 SMA today, it'll be tomorrow and some announcement will happen. Whether NHSTA force a recall, or ELon saying they couldn't comment because of the investigation and everything's actually just muddle through, instead of the "all hell break loose" sentiment we are seeing.

Either way, straddle the heck out of this.

Funny, my buy limit order is set around 108 but I may lower it closer to 100 because I can see a scenario where TSLA will trade between 100-110 for a few days.

I think the most important question at this point is this, will TSLA go below 100? Personally, I doubt it because the fundamentals of Tesla Motors (the company) are sound. There's also the fact that GS's conservative analyst's price target isn't even below 100. Then again, TSLA is looking like it's well on its way of following what happened to NFLX. As much as I would like a bargain to buy back in, I really don't want to see TSLA dip all the way down to $50-60.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Im in a really pissed off mood right now, trying to neutralize with jamaican rum. You can call me a conspiracy theoritican but im smelling that the big boys are manupulating the tsla stock bigtime. First they made money by inflating the balloon. Now theyare making money again by letting air off the balloon. There isnt any SERIOUS reason for the nearly 40% dip in the last week. Without REAL bad news. Now im asking you guys: What happens if NHTSA comes out with a negative report for Model S undearneath, stating it HAS to be reinforced?? Will we dip below 100$ then??? What im trying to say here is. The RISE was too fast, and was an illusion, now the DIP will also be fast and illogical.

I will buy tsla stock again and only if it dips under 80$....

p.s.: im pissed off by tesla managements arrogant stubborness and making comments like "there is nothing in model s to be optimized. The car is safe enough." That art of commenting was amateurish and has room for improvement as ELON says...They should have calmed the market down, even if with a PLACEBO

 

[Causalien]

Funny, my buy limit order is set around 108 but I may lower it closer to 100 because I can see a scenario where TSLA will trade between 100-110 for a few days.

I think the most important question at this point is this, will TSLA go below 100? Personally, I doubt it because the fundamentals of Tesla Motors (the company) are sound. There's also the fact that GS's conservative analyst's price target isn't even below 100. Then again, TSLA is looking like it's well on its way of following what happened to NFLX. As much as I would like a bargain to buy back in, I really don't want to see TSLA dip all the way down to $50-60.

My only gripe is that twitter is worth more than TSLA. Maybe TSLA should slap social on and offer dashboar ads and get a 40 bil valuation.

 

[FluxCap]

Do you come from PR as well? Luckily, I've been out of the business for a few years after doing it for about 20 yrs. I'd offer my counsel to Elon gratis because I too want to see him succeed. I'm a fan. I don't know if it's fair to pin all the blame on the current PR team. I don't know them and don't know the circumstances they're operating under. Often, when PR teams are ineffective, it's not the fault of the PR people but instead is often the fault of their managers or the executives, or of the executives taking bad advice. Ultimately, the buck stops with the CEO. The CEO is the one who should set the strategy and approach and then the PR team implements.

MBA in Tech Marketing / Entrepreneurship. Certainly PR's a tactical part of an overall strategy, but what I was trying to say is that Tesla Motors need a marketing strategy team that unifies their public messages in a cohesive plan other than "word of mouth," is empowered to react fast without Elon's direct involvement, and has talented management reinforcements beyond the engineering and product teams. My 2 cents.

Edit: so basically I was saying the same thing you were -- sorry typed before reading your whole note.

 

[PokerBroker]

I reenforced my long term position at 135.5 last week, my limit order executed today at 122. I set a new limit order for myself at 103. I welcome short term losses at this point as I'm comfortable putting plenty more into long term at the right price.

 

[gameon]

I think at one point it will stop sliding but who knows when...

Elon Musk should be careful with communication with media for many reasons discuss on the forum.

 

[Curt Renz]

A Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) retracement to a price that is 61.8034% of a record high often marks the bottom of a retracement, as noted in the book I wrote on technical analysis for McGraw-Hill. Of course I am far from alone in realizing that. The intra-day TSLA high price on September 30 was $194.50 and the close was $193.37. The theoretical Golden Ratio lows based on those prices would be $120.21 and $ 119.51. The intra-day low today was $119.61 and the close was $121.58.

So the TSLA price is currently near the level of an ideal Golden Ratio retracement. This may seem like numerology quite unrelated to fundamental valuations, but mass psychology is a big factor in share prices. The Golden Ratio is one that people find pleasing in many ways and is often found in artistic and architectural design. It has often proven to be the point where investors say “enough is enough” in a market decline. The bot trading algorithms used by hedge funds incorporate technical analysis. The Golden Ratio may be one of the indicators they are programmed to consider. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

A Golden Ratio (Fibonacci) retracement to a price that is 61.8034% of a record high often marks the bottom of a retracement, as noted in the book I wrote on technical analysis for McGraw-Hill. Of course I am far from alone in realizing that. The intra-day TSLA high price on September 30 was $194.50 and the close was $193.37. The theoretical Golden Ratio lows based on those prices would be $120.21 and $ 119.51. The intra-day low today was $119.61 and the close was $121.58.

So the TSLA price is currently near the level of an ideal Golden Ratio retracement. This may seem like numerology quite unrelated to fundamental valuations, but mass psychology is a big factor in share prices. The Golden Ratio is one that people find pleasing in many ways and is often found in artistic and architectural design. It has often proven to be the point where investors say “enough is enough” in a market decline. The bot trading algorithms used by hedge funds incorporate technical analysis. The Golden Ratio may be one of the indicators they are programmed to consider. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Thanks Curt, if 61% retrace doesn't hold then we have the 50% up next. Would you care to speculate the earliest we could expect TSLA to be added to the S&P 500?

 

[RobotGrease]

I've had trouble recently with charting TSLA. I wasn't able to find a satisfying trend to describe the recent movement... until today. See the big red channel, very telling. I was being thrown off by the outliers around the ER and the ATH. It looks so obvious now... Today's movement spanned the entire channel.