Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[imherkimer]

we are moving in on 88!
squeeze baby, squeeze! Woo-hoo!
If you have had the patience to stay on, the ride keeps getting better!
Let's hold on and squeeze em tighter!

 

[mitch672]

Yup, you need a lot of patience, but it's being rewarded... I hope you are all holding out for 3 digits like I suggested a while ago... I know I am. And it could happen this week

 

[ShortSlaver]

What I love about this is that every day a bunch of new shorts jump in thinking they can call the top of this thing, just to get run over.

Think about the shorts that opened positions on Friday morning. That was a perfectly reasonable trade. The problem is, it's only two days later and that whole set of traders is going to be getting their margin calls in the morning. We don't even need to burn off the original backlog of shorts. This thing can be fed by the ones that are late to the pain party.

It's amazing anyone would even try and play a day trade short on this thing. It's just not stopping anytime soon. People want more and more of this thing. I thought it was over at 70, then 75 and then 80 and it keeps going. I bought the dip to $69 on Thursday AH and figured I was making a horrible play. I bought AH on Friday at $76 and knew I was in for it. Where does the insanity end?!

 

[deonb]

By end of trading today we would have traded nearly 70MM shares of TSLA since the earnings report. I suspect this is the peak. No way to know for sure. But I would be surprised if tomorrow is another 10%+ opening day.

The price generally tend to drift down on Tuesdays. But that was a lifetime ago with 20% of current trading volume.

I know there were lots of people who thought it was a great idea to short at $70 who will get a note from their broker tomorrow morning when they get in. So who knows what will happen.

With this high volume even the 3 stooges won't affect it anymore. (Well, unless they up their volume to 5 times).

Either way, tomorrow will be interesting.

A straddle would be a great play if it wasn't so insanely expensive.

 

[marvinat0rz]

I must say I'm a bit at a loss for what to do here. Bought Tesla from November-March expecting to hold the shares for a decade, under the assumption that Tesla had a great opportunity to become a major global carmaker. It also seemed quite obvious that very many analysts were wrong when being negative on the stock. The reasoning was a not unreasonable chance of something like getting a 5-10 return on investment after a decade.

Now, however, the stock has appreciated more than I assumed it would do in at least two years. The risk level relative to my comfort level has climbed a lot. I've made more money on paper on this stock in a couple of months than I would with over a year of saving in a high-interest account. This is my biggest speculative trade to date, and I went into it with the assumption that losing the whole investment in a bankruptcy would be an acceptable risk.

Now I'm getting scared of heights. Does anyone have any good suggestions?

(Hedging with options is not possible for me at this point - I am using a foreign broker that doesn't have access to the US options exchanges).

 

[FredTMC]

Yup, you need a lot of patience, but it's being rewarded... I hope you are all holding out for 3 digits like I suggested a while ago... I know I am. And it could happen this week

+1. I for one won't be selling any of my holding till next year. I will be holding most for many years as long as mgmt continues to execute the master plan.

 

[DRM]

Well it's been awhile since the IPO, and I just pushed the button to sell if/when the stock hits $100. It's been a great ride, but although I love my car and have great hopes for the company ... i just think the stock is pricing in a few more years of flawless execution rather than a realistic assessment of where the company is.

 

[Citizen-T]

I must say I'm a bit at a loss for what to do here. Bought Tesla from November-March expecting to hold the shares for a decade, under the assumption that Tesla had a great opportunity to become a major global carmaker. It also seemed quite obvious that very many analysts were wrong when being negative on the stock. The reasoning was a not unreasonable chance of something like getting a 5-10 return on investment after a decade.

Now, however, the stock has appreciated more than I assumed it would do in at least two years. The risk level relative to my comfort level has climbed a lot. I've made more money on paper on this stock in a couple of months than I would with over a year of saving in a high-interest account. This is my biggest speculative trade to date, and I went into it with the assumption that losing the whole investment in a bankruptcy would be an acceptable risk.

Now I'm getting scared of heights. Does anyone have any good suggestions?

(Hedging with options is not possible for me at this point - I am using a foreign broker that doesn't have access to the US options exchanges).

My usual advice (especially since you can't tap options):

Nobody ever got hurt taking profits. Go ahead and at least take your original investment off the table. Play this game with the house's money. If we come back down to earth you can put your original investment back to work and own even more of the company for that long term vision you have. If it doesn't, you'll only get slightly less filthy rich than you would have if you kept it all invested. That's a high-quality problem.

 

[mitch672]

I must say I'm a bit at a loss for what to do here. Bought Tesla from November-March expecting to hold the shares for a decade, under the assumption that Tesla had a great opportunity to become a major global carmaker. It also seemed quite obvious that very many analysts were wrong when being negative on the stock. The reasoning was a not unreasonable chance of something like getting a 5-10 return on investment after a decade.

Now, however, the stock has appreciated more than I assumed it would do in at least two years. The risk level relative to my comfort level has climbed a lot. I've made more money on paper on this stock in a couple of months than I would with over a year of saving in a high-interest account. This is my biggest speculative trade to date, and I went into it with the assumption that losing the whole investment in a bankruptcy would be an acceptable risk.

Now I'm getting scared of heights. Does anyone have any good suggestions?

(Hedging with options is not possible for me at this point - I am using a foreign broker that doesn't have access to the US options exchanges).

If you want to mitigate your risks, sell enough to cover your original purchase price. Once that's done, you are playing with "house" money, if it goes to zero, you still haven't lost anything, if it gets to $500, your still making lots of money, just not the absolute maximum possible, but you'll be able to sleep without worrying about your investment.

 

[Norbert]

Still going higher and higher in after hours... new high is 88.77.

 

[deonb]

I must say I'm a bit at a loss for what to do here. Bought Tesla from November-March expecting to hold the shares for a decade, under the assumption that Tesla had a great opportunity to become a major global carmaker. It also seemed quite obvious that very many analysts were wrong when being negative on the stock. The reasoning was a not unreasonable chance of something like getting a 5-10 return on investment after a decade.

Now, however, the stock has appreciated more than I assumed it would do in at least two years. The risk level relative to my comfort level has climbed a lot. I've made more money on paper on this stock in a couple of months than I would with over a year of saving in a high-interest account. This is my biggest speculative trade to date, and I went into it with the assumption that losing the whole investment in a bankruptcy would be an acceptable risk.

Now I'm getting scared of heights. Does anyone have any good suggestions?

(Hedging with options is not possible for me at this point - I am using a foreign broker that doesn't have access to the US options exchanges).

Yes. If you're really holding for the long-term (decade), then the current price isn't actually high. You still have the same chance for that 5-10 return. You've only now realized 2 of that - there's still lots of upside left.

If you believed it was a good company to hold for 10 years, it's still as good now. The only thing you didn't realize was how good of a company it was. Would be weird to run for the hills now that you do.

 

[mitch672]

Still going higher and higher in after hours... new high is 88.77.

Has anyone ever seen a stock making new HIGHs in After hours trading?
New LOWs, yes, new HIGHs never...

 

[kenliles]

Has anyone ever seen a stock making new HIGHs in After hours trading?
New LOWs, yes, new HIGHs never...

reminiscent of APPL - they used to do it all the time

 

[Johan]

Has anyone ever seen a stock making new HIGHs in After hours trading?
New LOWs, yes, new HIGHs never...

Gap up baby. Gap up.

 

[jcstp]

This is the feeling when I watch this

 

[ckessel]

I know the general rule is not to read anything into after hours movement, but...but...I can't help it.

 

[marvinat0rz]

@Citizen-T, mitch672, deonb,

Thanks for input. I appreciate hearing some external voices of (hopefully ) reason.

 

[StephenM]

Wow. Over 10b market capitalization now.

 

[erha]

Does anybody know anything about the availability and interest rate for shorting now? Would be interesting to see. I guess that is our best estimate of when we've reached the top.

This article states 10% less shorts now than before the earnings: Shorts Throw In The Towel On Tesla, But They Could Come Back - Forbes

 

[imherkimer]

+1 jcstp Ma Baker! Loved that vid! great tune for today...

- - - Updated - - -

Wow! If short interest is only down 10% since the earnings announcement, does that mean that 30% of the float is still being shorted?
If so, this squeeze could still grow some legs!