Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[gregincal]

However, I think the other thing he could do is to sell anything that he has currently at a loss (SCTY comes to mind ), and immediately re-buy it. That way you can write off a current loss against the TSLA gain. You'd still have to pay tax on it in the future, but better to let things ride with tax-deferred money.

You have to wait 30 days to rebuy it: Wash Sale

 

[ShortSlaver]

I exited the party today at $84. I made an obscene profit as my average price was $36. Enough to buy several model S I looked at the volume and realized I'd rather leave a little too early than a little too late. The rise is happening fairly gradually but the drop could happen very quickly as the demand from shorts subsides. I too am sitting on a mountain of cash biding my time for this baby to come back down so that I can load up for the next round.

Yeah better to not over stay your welcome. I got in well before it became a darling like you, it popped, I made my mini-fortune ( moved profits into Apple, I think it's an insane value but could be wrong ) and now I'm mainly out. Hate to leave money on the table but I sort of feel like in terms of a percentage, I milked the higher end of it. Can it really have that much more upside?

If it drops it will happen slowly, then all at once. I too didn't like the lower volume today and lack of bearish sentiments on various networks. Everyone is super gung-ho right now which is something I like for a little while on Wall St. and then sort of like to slip out the back before the high becomes a hangover. I wouldn't short the thing by any means and won't be surprised if it keeps going and doesn't return, but I believe we are in irrational exuberance mode right now. But, could be wrong.

I'm happy I dumped my SCTY around $30 all things considered. It's tanking.

 

[nygiants242]

Yeah better to not over stay your welcome. I got in well before it became a darling like you, it popped, I made my mini-fortune ( moved profits into Apple, I think it's an insane value but could be wrong ) and now I'm mainly out. Hate to leave money on the table but I sort of feel like in terms of a percentage, I milked the higher end of it. Can it really have that much more upside?

If it drops it will happen slowly, then all at once. I too didn't like the lower volume today and lack of bearish sentiments on various networks. Everyone is super gung-ho right now which is something I like for a little while on Wall St. and then sort of like to slip out the back before the high becomes a hangover. I wouldn't short the thing by any means and won't be surprised if it keeps going and doesn't return, but I believe we are in irrational exuberance mode right now. But, could be wrong.

I'm happy I dumped my SCTY around $30 all things considered. It's tanking.

Well done! Wasn't quite understanding all the hype the company was getting heading into earnings. Hype could actually be an understatement given its recent meteoric rise...

As for my TSLA position, I am cautiously playing the "wait-and-see" game. What might be a good idea is to shed 50% of my holdings over the next few days, perhaps even at different points in time just to make sure I do not miss out on further gains. After all, I still fundamentally believe in the long-term prospects of the firm, although it would be nice to time it well to be able to re-enter at lows. Timing is everything - yet really hard to predict.

 

[Daniel Scherer]

I'm the fisherman and the girl is the Shorts.



State Farm® - - YouTube

 

[avatar]

there is no way to predict the top and I didn't want to lose my gains trying to. I was really concerned at the 70MM+ shares that traded hands. To me that says that most people have exited their short positions or mostly have. I would expect at the most another 12% or so upside. Maybe. There is an equal chance the volume will drop tomorrow to 5 - 6MM shares and price return to 75 - 80 which is where i think the fundamental value of the company is.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Well done! Wasn't quite understanding all the hype the company was getting heading into earnings. Hype could actually be an understatement given its recent meteoric rise...

As for my TSLA position, I am cautiously playing the "wait-and-see" game. What might be a good idea is to shed 50% of my holdings over the next few days, perhaps even at different points in time just to make sure I do not miss out on further gains. After all, I still fundamentally believe in the long-term prospects of the firm, although it would be nice to time it well to be able to re-enter at lows. Timing is everything - yet really hard to predict.

SCTY is an awesome company that might make it one day. But, they doubled their market cap from like a month ago with no positive news and were downgraded by a few firms. I bought them at $16 and $18 mainly with the idea they may make it one day. The market acted like they already made it I had to dump. I'm highly confident I will get a chance to get back in under $25 and it is then that I expect them to make a push up over the next few years. I could be wrong - it's down nearly 10% after their so-so earnings call (good in many ways, sales are up and EPS is way down as they carry a lot of overhead) and still at $32.5 so it could rise of course. But I buy stocks in companies I believe in that are undervalued IMO and SCTY is just living on the Musk hype to me right now.

I loved my Musk ETF (TSLA and SCTY stock in large quantities) but it matured quickly and I'm moving on and waiting for them to become a value again.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Portfolio Rebalancing is billed as a risk avoidance maneuver, but it can actually hurt long-term gains.

The pro for Rebalancing is that investment vehicles that have gone up rarely go up as much the next year. So, if you don't do anything, you end up more invested in things that won't significantly appreciate.

I recommend annual rebalancing only for core retirement investments, typically indexed stock and bond funds. For stuff that people want to have less risk (like a 401(k) account), it makes sense to re-align the % of each holding so that it reflects the specific investor's age. If I have a 75% stock and 25% bond target allocation, and my portfolio is 90% stock funds at the end of the year, I would sell some stock funds to bring the mix back to the 75/25 target.

For individual stocks held outside of core retirement holdings, I think rebalancing can be a mistake. The goal of more speculative investments is usually very very very high return. Selling off, rather than holding, can defeat that goal.

 

[smorgasbord]

Note that we have a separate SCTY thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16377-Solar-City-Investor-Discussions


As for TSLA, it might be worth discussing not what the top will actually be, but what the volume, volatility, and rate of descent might be. For instance, I think there are people kicking themselves for not getting in at $68. Maybe even some at $75. Certainly people at $60. Does a 10% drop in TSLA kick off a new spurt of buyers, or does it lead to a "get out while the gettings good?" Or, both - in which case the price could whip-saw like crazy.

There's been enough stock holders taking profits to stop TSLA from really shooting the moon all at once. But, 3 days at more than 10% per day is an extraordinary run, and each day's rise leads to new margin calls, as well as new shorters getting in.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Note that we have a separate SCTY thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16377-Solar-City-Investor-Discussions


As for TSLA, it might be worth discussing not what the top will actually be, but what the volume, volatility, and rate of descent might be. For instance, I think there are people kicking themselves for not getting in at $68. Maybe even some at $75. Certainly people at $60. Does a 10% drop in TSLA kick off a new spurt of buyers, or does it lead to a "get out while the gettings good?" Or, both - in which case the price could whip-saw like crazy.

There's been enough stock holders taking profits to stop TSLA from really shooting the moon all at once. But, 3 days at more than 10% per day is an extraordinary run, and each day's rise leads to new margin calls, as well as new shorters getting in.

I'd be nervous about $90. If it breaks $90 with ease I think $100 is the next step and then see from there. But you're right, there are just a new spat of shorts everyday but today, with the lower volume, I sort of feel like there aren't as many. But there's a lot of people getting in "late" here looking for a quick buck and once they see it fall there is going to be a mad dash of sellers you would think. I mean, if we see a quick dropoff to $85 tomorrow, there's a lot of people looking at a loss. They're all going to sell since they aren't in it longterm anyways and it creates a domino effect. Many longterm holders will see it finally isn't trending up anymore and will get out while they can. Plus, shorting will become massive again that's going to trigger more selling. The feeling I get speaking with people who were in before the earnings call is that their position is significantly smaller than it was.

I don't know what the top will be and I don't know if it will even have a significant drop off. But I've seen this story before and these things tend to correct themselves slowly at first and then all at once. Too much, too fast. Classic short squeeze. I acknowledge I could be 100% wrong. But low volume on a big gain is not a good sign.

 

[Citizen-T]

I find that those who invoke the G-word (gambling) to scare a would be profit taker tend to not only be unsophisticated investors but also unsophisticated gamblers.

Would you advise a gambler to only go all-in or walk away from the table? That is what you are doing when you blindly buy and hold---ignoring risk to reward (it's also what you do when you try to call a top or bottom by buying or selling your entire position).

If investing is like gambling (which it isn't) then "buy and hold" is roulette. Put it all on black.

I think your odds are better at the poker table. Where you can put chips in your pocket when you are winning big and doubling down when you hold the ace.

Investing is not so black and white. Don't let people scare you with the G-word.

P.S. We specifically split the investing thread in two so we could stop having this argument. All you buy and never sell types have your own thread where you can talk about how you don't care what the stock price did today.

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[ggr]

I'd be nervous about $90. If it breaks $90 with ease I think $100 is the next step and then see from there.

It just broke $90 in after-hours! Yay.

Options expiry is on Friday. I think the squeeze will continue through that, maybe through Monday, before there will be a significant and sustained pullback. I guess we'll see.

 

[Vger]

Just a beautiful sight!

Here is our picture: we were in at IPO. Then I bought 20% more shares just before the announcement at about $55. I have been selling puts and watching them expire month after month, making $k after $k. This AM I put a June covered call @ $100 on the 20% bonus shares. If those are called away, I will have almost all of my total investment out and playing "house money" for the long term. If not, I will pocket the premium and do it again.

Thank you Elon-- you made a car better than an amusement park ride, AND an investment better than an amusement park ride. Now that's some astro-engineering!






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[StephenM]

^^ Nice shot Voyager! :wink:

I'm assuming your name is derived from the first Star Trek movie?

 

[mitch672]

If it breaks $90 with ease I think $100 is the next step and then see from there.

It was at $90 in after hours trading tonight... How high is the sky?
It's feeding on itself (new shorters comming in). Who knows when the music will stop.

 

[ShortSlaver]

It just broke $90 in after-hours! Yay.

Options expiry is on Friday. I think the squeeze will continue through that, maybe through Monday, before there will be a significant and sustained pullback. I guess we'll see.

It's amazing - I remember back in April setting $90 limits. I never really thought it would get there but low and behold, it has. This bull is simply astonishing. It's a ride I will never forget.

 

[Vger]

Here is an interesting observation: look at the open and close (top and bottom of the box) relative to the intraday low and high (fine lines). During each of the last blowout days, the open and close were first in the middle of the range, then higher, and today-- pegged at the top. I am no chart technician, but that looks like a (shart-term) sustaining bullish indicator to me! ;-)

Thoughts from the pros?


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[avatar]

View attachment 21953

Here is an interesting observation: look at the open and close (top and bottom of the box) relative to the intraday low and high (fine lines). During each of the last blowout days, the open and close were first in the middle of the range, then higher, and today-- pegged at the top. I am no chart technician, but that looks like a (shart-term) sustaining bullish indicator to me! ;-)

Thoughts from the pros?


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Chart reading is like believing in horoscopes to me. People see patterns where they want. Everything has a trend until it doesn't. Snake oil science. No offense intended to anyone.

With that said - there may very well be a continued bull run.

 

[Causalien]

Chart reading is like believing in horoscopes to me. People see patterns where they want. Everything has a trend until it doesn't. Snake oil science. No offense intended to anyone.

With that said - there may very well be a continued bull run.

Strictly candlestick reading. I will say that 3 white knight is about to form. With tomorrow being the 3rd. Then again, I never use candlestick for anything other than reversal patterns. Since 3 white knight is a continuation pattern I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it. What I am worried about is the horrible omen that always comes true: "Gaps get filled"

 

[brianman]

Portfolio Rebalancing is billed as a risk avoidance maneuver, but it can actually hurt long-term gains.

Any risk avoidance maneuver that doesn't generally cap your gains is a fantasy.

 

[Curt Renz]

I believe this is the real reason why some people may want to sell some at this stage. A lot of people now have much more in Tesla stock than they expected to at this stage, and it makes sense to sell some to reduce risk.

That's a common perception, but not really logical. An increase in the the size of a pie because one slice has grown has no effect on the risk to the other slices or the original pie. If the big slice has grown from size 40 to size 90, it's risk of shrinking to size 30 has greatly decreased.

- - - Updated - - -

I find that those who invoke the G-word (gambling) to scare a would be profit taker tend to not only be unsophisticated investors but also unsophisticated gamblers.

I hope you didn't bail out too soon and are hoping to inspire potential profit takers to drive the stock down to a more desirable reentry level.