Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[brianman]

In other words, Tesla now has enough capital to clone the Better Place business model?
I hope not. Elon is smarter than that.

How to make a small fortune building a car company: start with a large fortune and waste most of your money on side projects that aren't core to the business.

 

[toastypasta]

That might take sales away from the X, not sure they'd announce them together.
As to G3 technology, as I posted on SA, Tesla could do around a 45kWh pack today using the 3.4ah Panasonic cells already available. With a smaller frontal area and if they get an even better coefficient of drag than the S it could hit 225 wh/mi to just maybe squeak out a 200 mile range, but definitely 180 miles. (Roadster hit 220 wh/mi for the 240 mile range). Smaller motor, smaller inverter, lighter battery pack, shorter and narrower wheelbase would all add up to a much lighter and less expensive vehicle. Using Musk Math the stripped down base model could be priced around $45K and come in the $30K's after rebates.
I don't think they are going to move the G3 up by much but I don't think technology is the barrier.

If technology isn't holding G3 back then why not move it up?
The X will sell 20-30k a year. the G3 can sell WAY more.

 

[Convert2013]

I spent some time at the Fashion Island Tesla Showroom today taking a read on what customers were actually doing. The 45 minutes I was there at noon, 3 people went on test drives. You hardly see ANYONE at regular dealerships during the weekday in the sales area, let alone test drives. That poor girl who was working the showroom was getting bombarded by people walking in with questions. Understaffed even during low demand times is not good. Hey if MS or GS says the stock is worth $109 I think support levels will be no lower than $90 +\- $3 range till the next catalyst- a strong SC announcement with maps and explanations that is clearly significant enough to convince the next 20% of prospective converts at least, into seriously considering Tesla for their next purchase. My friends who are shy about considering the car are mostly worried about lack of super charging stations, not the range, period! That's where Elon hopefully will spend a good portion of his offering $. I was told by my friend an average super charger location with six chargers cost about $250k to build, so a thousand would be $250 mil... Anyone know about SC cost? You'd think Uncle Sam should be helping with this infrastructure cost..? They have to do this all over the world. Not a cheap investment by any means.

 

[FredTMC]

I spent some time at the Fashion Island Tesla Showroom today taking a read on what customers were actually doing. The 45 minutes I was there at noon, 3 people went on test drives. You hardly see ANYONE at regular dealerships during the weekday in the sales area, let alone test drives. That poor girl who was working the showroom was getting bombarded by people walking in with questions. Understaffed even during low demand times is not good. Hey if MS or GS says the stock is worth $109 I think support levels will be no lower than $90 +\- $3 range till the next catalyst- a strong SC announcement with maps and explanations that is clearly significant enough to convince the next 20% of prospective converts at least, into seriously considering Tesla for their next purchase. My friends who are shy about considering the car are mostly worried about lack of super charging stations, not the range, period! That's where Elon hopefully will spend a good portion of his offering $. I was told by my friend an average super charger location with six chargers cost about $250k to build, so a thousand would be $250 mil... Anyone know about SC cost? You'd think Uncle Sam should be helping with this infrastructure cost..? They have to do this all over the world. Not a cheap investment by any means.

Regarding the SCs, I think the plan is a couple hundred locations to coverage most of the country within the next 3 years. Upwards of a thousand locations not required.

 

[JRP3]

If technology isn't holding G3 back then why not move it up?

Because it's still going to take a huge investment in equipment and personnel to produce the G3. Plus the X should have a higher profit margin and since it shares a large number of parts with the S the cost to start production is much lower. Tesla knows what they are doing and why they are doing it.

 

[Citizen-T]

I agree that this isn't really relavent to the short term moves in the stock price. At least move the discussion to one of the many threads related to the capital raise.

 

[toastypasta]

This is the lowest volume pre-market in a really long time.

 

[aznt1217]

This is the lowest volume pre-market in a really long time.

Yup the hype is over. Looks like we're consolidating right now. I'm rebuying in @ $85. Any thoughts?

 

[kumar]

Hi guys so what's the story do we think the DOE payment announcement will help the stock go up?
I mean it has trended downward slowly for a few days now. I am wondering if it's on it's way down to settling lower then 80.

 

[aznt1217]

Hi guys so what's the story do we think the DOE payment announcement will help the stock go up?
I mean it has trended downward slowly for a few days now. I am wondering if it's on it's way down to settling lower then 80.

Honestly, wouldn't worry too much. Offering was made at $92.25, and plenty of people bought. That essentially is telling the market there's a new floor. Tesla just has to continue to execute. Right now, between the capital raise and the loan repayment it takes a little bit of "worry" of the financials off the table and enables more focus on execution and expansion.

 

[toastypasta]

Exactly. Big firms buy in at $92.25, they won't let it get too far from that.

 

[kumar]

Okay so we are comfortable feeling that somewhere around 92 is a better stable point for the stock going into june?
But what's driving it down so much right now...i mean it's at 86...that's a far cry from 92.

- - - Updated - - -

but what can big firms do to bring the price back? just buy more right?

 

[Citizen-T]

Okay so we are comfortable feeling that somewhere around 92 is a better stable point for the stock going into june?
But what's driving it down so much right now...i mean it's at 86...that's a far cry from 92.

- - - Updated - - -

but what can big firms do to bring the price back? just buy more right?

I suspect we are being pushed down by new shorts that are jumping in thinking they can make a quick buck. They have no idea what they are getting into.

 

[aznt1217]

I suspect we are being pushed down by new shorts that are jumping in thinking they can make a quick buck. They have no idea what they are getting into.

Absolutely, between shorts and day traders this looks like the "old Tesla" except at a higher range.

 

[kumar]

So how high do you guys feel the stock can go without the sell pressure of it being over valued bring it down?

 

[Citizen-T]

So how high do you guys feel the stock can go without the sell pressure of it being over valued bring it down?

It is incredibly hard to value right now. In the end, the stock is worth what people will pay for it, and a bunch of really smart people just paid a ton of money for it at $92. Who am I to disagree with the market?

I think they just turned something that was clearly overvalued because of a short squeeze into something that might be a reasonable valuation.

 

[DJ Frustration]

Something just popped. Up $3 in 20 min. Ideas?

 

[toastypasta]

Okay so we are comfortable feeling that somewhere around 92 is a better stable point for the stock going into june?
But what's driving it down so much right now...i mean it's at 86...that's a far cry from 92.

- - - Updated - - -

but what can big firms do to bring the price back? just buy more right?

See the chart... that's how they keep the stock up.
They day trade like animals and just move it higher as it goes down. buying and selling all day long.

 

[Johan]

I think they just turned something that was clearly overvalued because of a short squeeze into something that might be a reasonable valuation.

This! Which is the reason I plan to hold some hundred stock worth of Jan '14 calls to expiration (to buy the underlying) even though the time-value seems to decrease every day now. Options traders moving on? This would probably also be a sign that price is stabilizing for now?

 

[ckessel]

i mean it's at 86...that's a far cry from 92.

*shrug*, $86 is down about 6% from $92. That's been a very normal day in TSLA's fluctuation for the last couple years. +/- $5 in a day and even a $8-9 range from top to bottom in a day is going to be common.