Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[MikeC]

There's a simple explanation to today's large loss. Tesla went into the NASDAQ 100 index yesterday. With all the ETF and index money pouring into the stock in recent days, the shorts almost completely closed out their positions (I lend my shares out to the shorts - over the last week the interest rate first collapsed to 0.75%, then all my shares came back, indicating that no one wanted to bet against the stock until after the 15th). Today, however, the index related inflows stopped and the shorts likely re-established their positions. So in short order, the stock has reverted to about where it was before the whole NASDAX 100 madness began.

Jack Bowers

Hey Jack, how about telling us this...yesterday? It actually makes a ton of sense to me. Shorts covering (and others buying in) in anticipation of entry into of the NASDAQ 100 explains the steady run-up and then crash after. So this ~20 point spread is where the price would be with and without the shorts. The Goldman analysis was just the spark, or even coincidental - they can't have expected that this would be the result of that article. The good news is that now that they're back in, once the (hopefully) positive Q2 results come out, we can hope for Round 2.

 

[Daniel Scherer]

On Monday just minutes before 8am opening I saw two 1,500,000+ shares ticker across the screen. What do think that was?

 

[twinklejet]

Just saw a quote that said: "When the masses say sell, smart people buy."

Hmm...

 

[Realist]

Buying options no matter calls or puts is the worst thing you can do now.

You are paying a very high premium due to the high volatility. When volume and vola comes down prices of options will drop.

This is how the instis make money.

 

[ppl]

There's a simple explanation to today's large loss. Tesla went into the NASDAQ 100 index yesterday. With all the ETF and index money pouring into the stock in recent days, the shorts almost completely closed out their positions (I lend my shares out to the shorts - over the last week the interest rate first collapsed to 0.75%, then all my shares came back, indicating that no one wanted to bet against the stock until after the 15th). Today, however, the index related inflows stopped and the shorts likely re-established their positions. So in short order, the stock has reverted to about where it was before the whole NASDAX 100 madness began.

Jack Bowers

not so sure of this. this level was last seen on july 1st. announcement for nasdaq wasnt until 2nd week in july. always look back at what signal may have been missed. it is interesting to note that the stock ran up pre open on the 15th, probably last of index buying for the nasdaq, then closed 5 pts down from its premarket high. i suspect the initial drop yesterday spooked everyone with the inordinate run up last two weeks. even my stop loss triggered at 122. my biggest mistake was trying to catch a falling knife buying back in way too soon. i didnt want to be out for earnings report. if it was not close to that, i would not have gone back in.

now my concern is the august 7th announced date of earnings. was the announcement of the date triggered by yesterdays drop? quite the coincidence. if so why put it off for three weeks. that is not the signal i was looking for. in the last two reports they gave 10 days and 2 week notice. musk has shown that he does care about the stock price. i dont understand the strategy. if good report get it out to calm market. if not good, maybe best to get it out too rather than fester. could they be waiting for first deliveries to europe before announcing. worst kept secret the volume, best kept secret the margin....is that the issue?

 

[DonPedro]

Buying options no matter calls or puts is the worst thing you can do now.

You are paying a very high premium due to the high volatility. When volume and vola comes down prices of options will drop.

This is how the instis make money.

I'm not sure I agree. I think this will be one of the most volatile (non-penny) stocks around for years to come. Yes, implied volatility on options is high, but it could still be underpriced.

 

[JoNoSaisQuoi]

I believe the conspiracy theory is compelling but not true. Think about the analyst, Goldman is a tough place to work, he has been feeling tremendous pressure, he has been so wrong on TSLA. Archambault raised his targets because it's pretty clear TSLA is having a good quarter/year and he missed it and he is now playing catch up before 2Q earnings. He wants to keep his job. Auto analysts have had it pretty easy in the past, the business is predictable and pretty slow growing. As we on this site already know TSLA is changing everything about the auto business. Analysts are so all over the place regarding their opinions of this company, they are just like everyone else.
I think of a Tesla as a tech gadget with wheels, TSLA is a technology and engineering company first but in order to value it we count VINs. Scaling issues and counting VINs should help keep our feet on the ground, it hasn't worked for me yet. I am very excited about this company's prospects.
Volume on this last move up wasn't huge, I ignored it because I was still operating under the assumption "this time it is different". Understanding that I seem to have a problem with this issue I made the decision early on not to trade this security. I decided to buy and hold for a minimum of four years. This blip will mean nothing 3.5 years. I am sorry the shorts had such a great day.
Perhaps I am posting on the wrong thread!

 

[uselesslogin]

not so sure of this. this level was last seen on july 1st. announcement for nasdaq wasnt until 2nd week in july. always look back at what signal may have been missed. it is interesting to note that the stock ran up pre open on the 15th, probably last of index buying for the nasdaq, then closed 5 pts down from its premarket high. i suspect the initial drop yesterday spooked everyone with the inordinate run up last two weeks. even my stop loss triggered at 122. my biggest mistake was trying to catch a falling knife buying back in way too soon. i didnt want to be out for earnings report. if it was not close to that, i would not have gone back in.

now my concern is the august 7th announced date of earnings. was the announcement of the date triggered by yesterdays drop? quite the coincidence. if so why put it off for three weeks. that is not the signal i was looking for. in the last two reports they gave 10 days and 2 week notice. musk has shown that he does care about the stock price. i dont understand the strategy. if good report get it out to calm market. if not good, maybe best to get it out too rather than fester. could they be waiting for first deliveries to europe before announcing. worst kept secret the volume, best kept secret the margin....is that the issue?

It is still the same number of days after the end of the quarter as it was last time. I expected August 7th just because the last one was May 8th. My take is maybe they thought it would shore up confidence to see the report is on the same schedule as last quarter and they knew they'd be ready so they announced the date. I think it will be a good report because he is going to release hyperloop designs the following Monday. If the numbers weren't good he wouldn't be planning on releasing the designs.

 

[Johan]

Will be interesting to see if analyst Adam Jonas from MS has anything to say before Aug 7th, or after. He understands Tesla best.

To add to the conspiracy: it would seem that GS are more or less Elon's private bankers... Hmm...

I put my money where my mouth is. Bought different calls for almost $50k (gains from previous months trading options) yesterday. Mostly with TSLA between 112-109. Now let's wait and see what happens.

 

[moltenfire]

In premarket we're at $107.00 now.

 

[ppl]

It is still the same number of days after the end of the quarter as it was last time. I expected August 7th just because the last one was May 8th. My take is maybe they thought it would shore up confidence to see the report is on the same schedule as last quarter and they knew they'd be ready so they announced the date. I think it will be a good report because he is going to release hyperloop designs the following Monday. If the numbers weren't good he wouldn't be planning on releasing the designs.

i think you misunderstood the post. yes the date makes perfect sense and i assumed that would be the date all along. releasing the date early does nothing to calm the market. announcing the results early would. i cannot believe that they couldnt do that. it would not signal panic, rather it would indicate that it were good. i am long but concerned

 

[Acmykguy]

In the past Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault has revised his opinions of TSLA the day after the release of an earnings report and conference call. Now one must wonder why he presented his latest revision prior to an earnings report? He did raise his target, but to a level well below the current price. Perhaps he wanted to discourage anyone who may have gotten excited by Northland’s target for TSLA of $230 made public on Monday. Well, he discouraged a lot of institutional investors today.

Could this have been a setup so that Goldman Sachs and its favored clients could buy low before a blowout earnings report? It may allow some of them who were short to cover cheaply. Then based on the numbers Archaubault could say he is justified in raising his rating and target for Tesla and hand Goldman and its clients huge profits. It’s the job of Goldman’s traders to buy low and sell high. The company is in a position of knowledge and control that allows it to do better than just make guesses.

Goldman has a cozy financial relationship with Tesla Motors. I realize there is supposedly a Chinese Wall separating the analyst from the rest of his company, but he knows on which side his bread is buttered and can pick up hints from executives and traders even if they are not explicit. The trading activity on August 8[SUP]th[/SUP] could be very interesting.

Correct....just like Ackman and herbalife. What these guys do should be illegal. I too know /think 2q will be blow out and they needed to cover shorts. If you look there is about 24% short. That's huge. Now today we will be down again and maybe stabilize Wednesday around 100 after dipping to the 90's today. If 2q is bad, 60-70 is well in reach so protect yourself now with some aug 60-70 puts

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Didn't Elon sign the giving pledge? This means he is donating at least half of his fortune to charity. He has more than enough money to live like the richest person in the world, and to invest in whatever projects he wants to, and is making millions annually from Space X, Solar City, and Tesla. I can't think of any reason he would sell his shares.

Elon will not sell his shares, he needs to hold them to protect from a hostile takeover . A company that would buy them and just shut them down.

I know a old man who developed an engine with patent back in the 50-60's that would get 50-60 miles per gallon. One of the unnamed big 3 bought this patent from him for 10,000$ after getting him all excited with a royalty clause. They went to see the working prototype and that day proceed to smash and destroy the prototype right in front of him. They told him if he ever makes another one or similar there would be some devastating consequences.

That gives you a little insight to the way these guys play. Elon needs to be careful, he is hanging the world, threatening global economies ie Saudi and Middle East. These people are going to do whatever they can to protect their people and wealth. Elon needs more security. Sorry went a little off topic but very important for him to think about.

 

[Johan]

That gives you a little insight to the way these guys play. Elon needs to be careful, he is hanging the world, threatening global economies ie Saudi and Middle East. These people are going to do whatever they can to protect their people and wealth. Elon needs more security. Sorry went a little off topic but very important for him to think about.

Elon being killed off, or dying in a "freak accident" (i.e. an assasination) is a valid concern and one I've had for a while.

 

[Acmykguy]

On Monday just minutes before 8am opening I saw two 1,500,000+ shares ticker across the screen. What do think that was?

Goldman or other inst selling so they can buy later at low price.

 

[deonb]

Goldman or other inst selling so they can buy later at low price.

Or it could have been e.g. QQQ buying into the stock.

 

[Acmykguy]

Buying options no matter calls or puts is the worst thing you can do now.

You are paying a very high premium due to the high volatility. When volume and vola comes down prices of options will drop.

This is how the instis make money.

Yes and no. Iv is high but you can still make $ buying/selling puts and calls. Look at the 110 put and call almost same price for aug. that means the stock has potential to swing 20% up or down in the next. 30 days. Pick your poison.

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Tesla Motors Incorporated
$ 109.05. TSLA. -18.21


Short Interest (Shares Short)
19,815,700


Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
2.4


Short Percent of Float
27.11 %


Short Interest - Prior
19,929,100

 

[Realist]

Goldman or other inst selling so they can buy later at low price.

This is not how it works.

Goldman was the main agent at the last capital raise and they did it quite well. The trick was to give Musk a credit for buying shares and that gave them the opportunity to raise capital with equity and convertible debt. Without Elon’s purchase the success of the capital raise would have been in question.

Any conspiracy theory on brokers manipulating stock prices is nonsense. Most of the time.

 

[sleepyhead]

Will be interesting to see if analyst Adam Jonas from MS has anything to say before Aug 7th, or after. He understands Tesla best.

To add to the conspiracy: it would seem that GS are more or less Elon's private bankers... Hmm...

I put my money where my mouth is. Bought different calls for almost $50k (gains from previous months trading options) yesterday. Mostly with TSLA between 112-109. Now let's wait and see what happens.

Johan, you are going to make out like a bandit. I bought some calls on the way down and then some more at $109. I think the shorts might try to push the stock down even more over the first couple of minutes of trading before they capitulate and the stock rebounds significantly today. We shall see...

 

[Acmykguy]

This is not how it works.

Goldman was the main agent at the last capital raise and they did it quite well. The trick was to give Musk a credit for buying shares and that gave them the opportunity to raise capital with equity and convertible debt. Without Elon’s purchase the success of the capital raise would have been in question.

Any conspiracy theory on brokers manipulating stock prices is nonsense. Most of the time.

Disagree. Look at HBLF. Total market manipulation.

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Johan, you are going to make out like a bandit. I bought some calls on the way down and then some more at $109. I think the shorts might try to push the stock down even more over the first couple of minutes of trading before they capitulate and the stock rebounds significantly today. We shall see...

You are right on....

 

[JoNoSaisQuoi]

This is not how it works.

Goldman was the main agent at the last capital raise and they did it quite well. The trick was to give Musk a credit for buying shares and that gave them the opportunity to raise capital with equity and convertible debt. Without Elon’s purchase the success of the capital raise would have been in question.

Any conspiracy theory on brokers manipulating stock prices is nonsense. Most of the time.

Realist is right! Conspiracy theorists are giving Wall St too much credit.