Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Norse]

could be soon. The 1billion dollar question is more on what the earnings report is going to look like because that will have a huge impact on which way the stock goes. anything negative (although Elon pointed it out in Q1 report) will drive the stock down, and drive it down fast.

Buying oppertunity then.

 

[Convert2013]

Buying oppertunity then.

Was out with the fam in the afternoon in New Port Beach and Laguna Beach yesterday afternoon..saw 5 Model S cars within 1 hr. Felt so good!! And what a way to start a bright sunny perfect Monday in S. Cal... Stock up another 5% today!....pouring a drink to toast to the next milestone..$150

 

[Fast Laner]

hello to everybody!

following a link to an report in the stock market section of a main german tv-station

Tesla-Aktie beschleunigt ruckartig | Aktie des Tages | Aktien | Börse Aktuell | boerse.ARD.de

although it's german, it is good publicity for Tesla in germany.:smile:

 

[Twiddler]

Up today b/c the stock price was stagnated on thursday and friday to bleed premiums from options holders who entered during Monday-Wednesday's chaos.

 

[Vger]

Here are an interesting collection of opinions on TSLA:

Whats Next for Tesla Motors? 7 Expert Investors Make Predictions

This seems to cover the gamut of at least the non-irrational-hater crowd. Some choice quotes:

"

The wackiness in Tesla's stock price is not at all unusual for an expensive and controversial momentum stock with enormous short interest."
"The fascinating thing about "Hyperloop" is that it's not even an idea, it's a promise to deliver an idea on a future date -- basically an intellectual stock option."

"In the near term, what to do with the stock? The value investors who believed in the business are sitting pretty, and as the volatility picks up, I would guess they will pare down a position. The stock is currently consumed by the trading world and it will likely make and break many careers."

"I really think Tesla is great for just flouting the ridiculous dealer system. That will go soon. People will blame their states for not letting them buy one, not Tesla for choosing a more sensible business model. Nobody sheds a tear for car dealers, who add no value at all."

"And in fact, the Porsche and BMW (FRA:BMW) business model was, for years, much more predicated on profit per car than on selling world-leading volume numbers. And if we see the price of gasoline rise above the $5 mark or higher, TSLA could become the next Porsche."

​

 

[Acmykguy]

Elon has always seen further down the road than his competition. Think back to all his startups and how far in front they were.

The hard lesson he learned at Tesla is stuff has to be tested really hard before it comes to market. The Roadster issues almost sunk the company. They worked hard to get Model S right.

Elon has said Daimler was instrumental in teaching him how to do this. I bet they are testing some jaw dropping tech right now. We won't know about it until it's safe and ready for prime time.

At Teslive they did say that there are some very cool things in the works but did not elaborate. The only thing is Elon mentioned he has some of them on his car already.

 

[100thMonkey]

Ha, my timing with acquiring TSLA is a BTCH! decided to buy at the low, by the time I got the ducks in a row, it's almost back to it's high, LOL. executed today anyway, figure the dip is temporary and from what I can tell there's mostly sunny blue skies ahead! watching how fast the super chargers to the north and south of us went in compared to the failed promise of QC's by ecotality over the last 2.5 years, I've got all bets on TSLA as the leader for a long time to come!

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

If you haven't read Julian Cox's post in this thread:

Jerome Guillen at TESLIVE - Page 6


It is great for anyone who is investing in Tesla. It's post #60. I'd highly recommend you read it!

 

[vfx]

At Teslive they did say that there are some very cool things in the works but did not elaborate. The only thing is Elon mentioned he has some of them on his car already.

Jerome's car is the one with all the new features. I would like to have followed him out to his ride to see what might be picture-able!

 

[ggies07]

If you haven't read Julian Cox's post in this thread:

Jerome Guillen at TESLIVE - Page 6


It is great for anyone who is investing in Tesla. It's post #60. I'd highly recommend you read it!

Thanks for pointing that out! Amazing stuff.

 

[Curt Renz]

Zacks Investment Research has raised TSLA from short term (1 to 3 months) Hold to Strong Buy: http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/TSLA?q=tsla

 

[Curt Renz]

Zacks Investment Research has raised TSLA from short term (1 to 3 months) Hold to Strong Buy: http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/TSLA?q=tsla

I could add that TSLA is currently Zacks' only short term Strong Buy in the US auto industry. They list F as a Buy and GM as a Hold.

 

[gameon]

looks like big upward swing waiting to happen reading all speculated :wink: Q2 reports

 

[Discoducky]

agelston is one of the people who I credit for getting my share position to go up!

 

[marvinat0rz]

I'd gladly join a Tesla investors' convention in Bergen.

 

[Norbert]

Sure, that was my point. Once the 18650 format no longer provides the best energy density and lowest cost then Tesla may lose their battery advantage. Obviously I don't expect this to happen any time soon but it is a real possibility at some point in the future. Remember Tesla ends up going from a cell density of around 250wh/kg to a pack density of 150wh/kg because of all the support the 18650 Cobalt based cells require. A cell chemistry that requires less support could come in at a lower cell level wh/kg but end up at a higher pack level wh/kg. A non O2 containing cell with a non flammable electrolyte for example might have no concern at all for thermal runaway and might have no need for active thermal management.

I agree that might be a factor in the future, but would like to put it in perspective:

a) although the ideal battery chemistry might perhaps not require as much thermal management, we are a far way from approaching the ideal battery chemistry. This means that any improved battery chemistry, be it the next big thing, or the big thing after that, may again require lots of thermal management. It would be a significant design restriction in developing new battery technology, if thermal management wasn't available. Tesla will likely continue to have more choices. Even if it is possible that during some period of time, it might be as you say, that period might not last very long. And it doesn't seem to be on the horizon, in any case.

b) as others have said, we can expect Tesla to continue being innovative, and not be a company that innovates once and then only wants to improve their past innovation. New battery technology might have other problems (or even additional ones), and Tesla might again be the company finding the best solution first.

In other words, I agree that there is that risk, however it is not something that will inevitably happen sooner or later. And of course, there are many other things that make Tesla a great car company. The big car companies may be able to throw a lot of money at something once they get in motion, but looking at it only from that point of view wouldn't do justice to Tesla.

 

[Hache]

Once the 18650 format no longer provides the best energy density and lowest cost then Tesla may lose their battery advantage.

But as JB Straubel said, they won't wait for the 18650 format to lose its advantage without doing R&D.

Q: Is Tesla still wedded to the 18650-form-factor cell? Are you looking beyond it?

A: For the immediate future we see 18650 as the most compelling. Believe me, we challenge it constantly.

See http://ev.sae.org/article/11923

 

[ggr]

I don't think the panel discussion happened (I had a conflict and could not attend TESLIVE).

The lunch session had "topic tables" one of which was for investment. It was packed, with people standing around it too, so they started a second one down in the cafe. I think it's safe to say that there'll be a panel for it at Teslive 2014.

 

[JRP3]

But as JB Straubel said, they won't wait for the 18650 format to lose its advantage without doing R&D.

See http://ev.sae.org/article/11923

Basically JB agrees with me. Tesla's current advantage is in wrangling the 18650 format and taking advantage of their cost and density, if Tesla switches to a large format cell when it becomes advantageous, and others have access to the same chemistry, Tesla no longer has an advantage. I'm not saying they suddenly fall behind but their current clear advantage in battery packs could disappear. Worst case is some company, maybe GM or Nissan, locks up a proprietary chemistry that Tesla does not have access to. I don't see that as likely but it's also not impossible.

although the ideal battery chemistry might perhaps not require as much thermal management, we are a far way from approaching the ideal battery chemistry.

But we already have battery chemistry that requires less management, LiFePO4 and Lithium titanate, they just don't have the energy density and low cost, though LiFePO4 in volume production should actually be cheaper than the cells Tesla is currently using. I'd even argue that Nissan's chemistry needs less temperature management, though they took it too far by using none.

 

[Hache]

I'll follow with attention your investigations in battery technology, JRP3. Seems like you're able to think with a 5 to 10 year timeframe, I'm quite amazed :smile: