Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[austinEV]

Wow, quietest day in a long time. I could use some quiet.

 

[johnnydop]

Wow, quietest day in a long time. I could use some quiet.

The quiet before the earnings storm.

 

[toastypasta]

Too hot here in NY. Everyone already made the commute to (insert summer home town of choice) drunk on the beach or in a pool.

 

[Curt Renz]

Too hot here in NY. Everyone already made the commute to (insert summer home town of choice) drunk on the beach or in a pool.

It’s currently 97° F here in Chicagoland. Power went out for a few minutes. I just finished restarting the computer and resetting clocks. The rest of the day’s market activity will not be the mystery I had feared.

It’s July options expiration day. It appears that the hedge funds that wrote puts and calls at the $120 strike for July don’t want the price to stray too far from there. Keeping it near there will shut out the owners of both options and allow the hedgies to keep their premiums.

We’re still awaiting the White House response to the Tesla petition. That may come at any time.

 

[emupilot]

It’s July options expiration day. It appears that the hedge funds that wrote puts and calls at the $120 strike for July don’t want the price to stray too far from there. Keeping it near there will shut out the owners of both options and allow the hedgies to keep their premiums.

Are the hedge funds applying upward pressure or downward pressure on the stock price?

 

[Discoducky]

We’re still awaiting the White House response to the Tesla petition. That may come at any time.

Don't think there is any way to know when/if this is coming...right?

 

[johnnydop]

It’s currently 97° F here in Chicagoland. Power went out for a few minutes. I just finished restarting the computer and resetting clocks. The rest of the day’s market activity will not be the mystery I had feared.

It’s July options expiration day. It appears that the hedge funds that wrote puts and calls at the $120 strike for July don’t want the price to stray too far from there. Keeping it near there will shut out the owners of both options and allow the hedgies to keep their premiums.

We’re still awaiting the White House response to the Tesla petition. That may come at any time.

What could the Whitehouse say or do?

 

[emupilot]

There are White House petitions awaiting response which were submitted in February, March, May (3), and June, so although a response could come at any time (and will come eventually) we shouldn't hold our breath. Even if the response were to indicate White House support for Tesla's position, I doubt very much if there is anything the president can do by executive order. Doing anything at the federal level would require an act of Congress, which is absolutely not going to happen.

 

[Causalien]

No one else uses the 18650 format, and in no way is connecting a cell with a piece of wire patentable. That's how cells have always been connected in one form or another. Tesla just made the wire very small to act as a fuse. It's a clever way to handle fusing thousands of small cells, which at this time is the only way to get lower cost energy dense packs. Maybe mods would like to pull out these pack discussions and put them into one of the Tesla battery threads.

So are these tech details in the battery topic somewhere? I'd like to read more about it. I somehow remember someone disassembling the battery. Are these glimpsed from that process? Or are these information available out there somewhere?

 

[JRP3]

Pics of the pack, and some discussion: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/13121-Inside-the-Tesla-battery-pack

 

[60TTuC]

http://jalopnik.com/tesla-just-bought-a-test-track-next-to-their-factory-840621863

 

[MikeC]

http://jalopnik.com/tesla-just-bought-a-test-track-next-to-their-factory-840621863

I thought they already had a track. That land didn't come with the factory?

 

[kevin99]

http://jalopnik.com/tesla-just-bought-a-test-track-next-to-their-factory-840621863

Will the shirts be scared by development like this? It is coming out of no where. I just can't fathom how fast the training is leaving.

 

[bonnie]

I thought they already had a track. That land didn't come with the factory?

No, it wasn't part of the factory deal. They've been leasing it, but things have been 'difficult' at times. So basically, no change, other than 1) they now own it, and 2) they don't have to deal with the track owner.

 

[vfx]

No, it wasn't part of the factory deal. They've been leasing it, but things have been 'difficult' at times. So basically, no change, other than 1) they now own it, and 2) they don't have to deal with the track owner.

Just to add, I had heard that it was just "part" of it they had problems with.

 

[EVNow]

I think you might be underestimating Tesla's battery advantage.

1. It's easier for Envia (and other companies) to claim huge battery advances but a whole other story for them to deliver these miracle batteries to the commercial market. Until they do so, I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of their full claims and also not to expect them to deliver these claims in a short period of time. It could take many years. And it's not just about density or safer chemistries, there are many other factors like # cycles, durability, discharge capacity, etc.

Yes, I understand. But the sheer amount of research going on means someone will succeed. It just requires time.

2. Tesla has made significant advances in using software to monitor each battery cell and control cooling or even shut-off of individual cells. This is no trivial task. I personally think they have a huge software and engineering advantage. And they continue to hire some of the best engineers. Tesla is very, very focused on battery tech. JB Straubel takes a deep personal interest in battery tech and understands it as one of Tesla's core competitive advantages.

All this is needed because of the chemistry the Tesla batteries use. Better chemistries with little risk of thermal runaway are on the way (actually they are already here - but the density needs to improve).

3. Tesla is the only company to release a 200+ range electric vehicle that is fast, safe, and relatively affordable. By the time other auto manufacturers are able to make an affordable 300 mile EV, Tesla will likely be making an affordable 500+ mile EV. Sometimes when the market leader is relentless and focused, they can grow their competitive advantage over time (ie., think Google and search technology). Their engineering team gets better (and bigger), they gain more experience, they have larger economies of scale, they have more robust safety features built in to the battery, and they have more time to iterate ways to drive down costs.

You are right - Tesla can do things to maintain some kind of leadership. But remember once there is a 300 mile Leaf for $20k and 500 mile gen 4 for $35k - people will buy the 300 mile Leaf in larger numbers. Marginal need for extra battery decreases.

- - - Updated - - -

You guys are making the assumption many Tesla doubters make. Assuming that Tesla is standing still. I get it that someday everyone (including JRP) will have access to a battery pack that can power a Hum Vee running at 80 MPH on a 1000 mile drive and can charge in 2 minutes but that's a long way away and Tesla will be making electric jets and Hyperloop powertrains by then.

You are just trivializing what I said without trying to understand it. I've been long on TSLA for a long time - but we need to understand their "moat". Their moat is in their battery technology - but that moat will disappear one day, not too far into the future. No, we aren't talking about some 1000 kWh battery for $2. We are talking about a 200 mile Leaf for $25k.

 

[Discoducky]

What are the odds of a big swing downward during Tuesday's trading this coming week? Might have some time to day trade this coming week

 

[EarlyAdopter]

There are White House petitions awaiting response which were submitted in February, March, May (3), and June, so although a response could come at any time (and will come eventually) we shouldn't hold our breath. Even if the response were to indicate White House support for Tesla's position, I doubt very much if there is anything the president can do by executive order. Doing anything at the federal level would require an act of Congress, which is absolutely not going to happen.

The President can direct an executive agency, like the FTC, and, through the Attorney General, the DoJ to investigate anti-consumer and anti-competitive behavior. They are already empowered by Congress to act if they find evidence. Both the FTC and DoJ Anti-Trust division have put out statements warning states over passing laws blocking purchase of vehicles out of state and of the negative economic consequences of the forced dealership model.

A statement by the Whitehouse to the effect of "Asking the FTC or DoJ to investigate" would most certainly cause a short-term pop in TSLA.

 

[Acmykguy]

The President can direct an executive agency, like the FTC, and, through the Attorney General, the DoJ to investigate anti-consumer and anti-competitive behavior. They are already empowered by Congress to act if they find evidence. Both the FTC and DoJ Anti-Trust division have put out statements warning states over passing laws blocking purchase of vehicles out of state and of the negative economic consequences of the forced dealership model.

A statement by the Whitehouse to the effect of "Asking the FTC or DoJ to investigate" would most certainly cause a short-term pop in TSLA.

The blocking of tsla from selling in some states in violation of interstate commerce law. If you read the law it will be very clear to see. I am sure the people at tsla know this and are just going slow to make sure they do it right. The provision in the law is archaic and needs to be changed. The problem is big oil.

 

[AlMc]

The blocking of tsla from selling in some states in violation of interstate commerce law. If you read the law it will be very clear to see. I am sure the people at tsla know this and are just going slow to make sure they do it right. The provision in the law is archaic and needs to be changed. The problem is big oil.

Correct. Also, Going slowly is a very smart strategy. They are still selling cars at an ever increasing rate and elevating their brand recognition without formal advertising. In addition, if they can get the Feds involved via the route of 'freedom of commerce' they can let the Feds sue/compel the states to allow direct sales without using their own legal/financial assets.

This is brilliant legal and brand building strategy whether intentional or not on Tesla's part.