Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[anticitizen13.7]

Supercharger network is not a "moat" - since others can replicate it (afterall, there are more CHAdeMO chargers now than expected super chargers in a couple of years). Their only moat is battery - and that is the reason for the "cool" and "it". If Model S had 100 mile range - none of those would be there.

CHAdeMO is much slower than the Supercharger though: http://www.chademo.com/wp/blog/category/faq-technic/. They say: " The reason why CHAdeMO introduces 50kw, is because we believe hitting the right balance between the needs and costs determines the most appropriate output. In addition, higher charging current or voltage will increase risk, cost, and difficulty of handling.
Battery performance will improve over time, but driving distance is decided by people`s life style thus does not increase proportionally. So we choose 50kW because we believe there is no merit to increase the capacity higher than that."

I don't think that can compete with a 120 kW Tesla Supercharger

BTW, Tesla has a big problem with supercharger location - they can't put many in the cities (unlike OEMS, who have dealers) because of cost.

Aren't Superchargers supposed to be used for highway travel though?

Also, I don't think that dealers are going to want to install a lot of charging stations to satisfy the automakers. Charging spots take up valuable space on the dealer's lot. It's an extra item to have to maintain.

 

[GJMcManus]

The only way you will get supercharger speed is from products directly from Tesla.

"On the DC charge protocol, that is protected IP and unfortunately not open to disclosure."

James C. Chen | Director of Public Policy & Associate General Counsel for Regulatory Affairs
Washington Office* | 1050 K Street, N.W., Suite 101, Washington, D.C.* 20001|


Without those protocols no other company's products can charge the Tesla S close to Tesla Supercharger speeds. This is part of the reason a CHAdemo adapter will be limited in it charging abilities.

 

[TSLAopt]

Yes, and that industry is going to grow to about $2b in a few years. I think that Tesla will eventually grab 10% of market share and have $200b+ in sales.

Sleepy, do you or does anyone else on this thread have any ball park guesstimates to how much it would cost to build a new battery factory? Hundreds of millions? Or perhaps billions?

 

[sleepyhead]

I think Cap Op said something like $300m, but I don't know what capacity that gives you. I think he is the most qualified to answer that question.

 

[bhuwan]

I think Cap Op said something like $300m, but I don't know what capacity that gives you. I think he is the most qualified to answer that question.

I would think that would be a bad idea - tesla losing focus at this point, or any point in the future, sounds like a recipe for disaster

 

[TSLAopt]

I would think that would be a bad idea - tesla losing focus at this point, or any point in the future, sounds like a recipe for disaster

I agree unless it gets to a point where they feel they have no other choice bc Panasonic or other battery suppliers can't or won't step up their capacity as fast as Tesla needs to grow, especially with larger battery packs in the future I assume Tesla will want to offer

 

[fizzazle]

STRONG DISAGREE HERE!

They are making battery operated electric vehicles. The operative word here is BATTERY. Thats like saying BMW continually tuning their engines is them losing focus. Should they just have someone else supply their motors?

Tesla provides superior range by using an existing technology (laptop batteries) and using it to the extreme (1000's of them) which no other manufacturer is doing. Eventually other manufacturers WILL catch on....OR MORE WORRISOME....THEY WILL DEVELOP THEIR OWN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURE THEIR OWN BATTERY PACKS.

This is what Tesla should also spend at least some time/money on.

Its like buying a nice watch which has "in house" movement versus buying a watch made in switzerland with stand ETA movement. ETA movement is the industry standard and works great.....but IN HOUSE is still the top echelon. Reason being that you have complete control of every component going into your product and a master of every component.

If Tesla were to do it....i'm sure they would do it right!!!

I agree unless it gets to a point where they feel they have no other choice bc Panasonic or other battery suppliers can't or won't step up their capacity as fast as Tesla needs to grow, especially with larger battery packs in the future I assume Tesla will want to offer

 

[EVNow]

I am still waiting for someone to replicate a supercharger. CHAdeMO chargers are 2.5x slower, so that does not compare at all.

That is because Leaf battery is smaller. I don't think the power is set in stone.

The most important moat the Tesla has is Elon Musk and you can't replicate it; plain and simple. That is the only thing that really matters with Tesla.

Great companies don't depend on personalities. I think having Elon as the center piece is a risk (as well as an asset). BTW, Ghosn has sold more EVs than Elon.

BTW, I'm long on TSLA - and don't plan to sell anytime soon. But I bought the stock to support EVs, rather than make money.

 

[DSJ]

no way - the more misrepresentation the better for us when the ER comes out - otherwise how would you buy the dips like yesterday and the GS call? ;D

Always a solid thought, but at some point, the tide must turn! A few years and all will be right.

 

[sleepyhead]

STRONG DISAGREE HERE!

They are making battery operated electric vehicles. The operative word here is BATTERY. Thats like saying BMW continually tuning their engines is them losing focus. Should they just have someone else supply their motors?

Tesla provides superior range by using an existing technology (laptop batteries) and using it to the extreme (1000's of them) which no other manufacturer is doing. Eventually other manufacturers WILL catch on....OR MORE WORRISOME....THEY WILL DEVELOP THEIR OWN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURE THEIR OWN BATTERY PACKS.

This is what Tesla should also spend at least some time/money on.

Its like buying a nice watch which has "in house" movement versus buying a watch made in switzerland with stand ETA movement. ETA movement is the industry standard and works great.....but IN HOUSE is still the top echelon. Reason being that you have complete control of every component going into your product and a master of every component.

If Tesla were to do it....i'm sure they would do it right!!!

I agree with this. Not having your own battery production is a risk to Tesla. They should eventually make at least 33% of batteries in house.

 

[Citizen-T]

I agree with this. Not having your own battery production is a risk to Tesla. They should eventually make at least 33% of batteries in house.

I see. Tell me, how many iPhones does Apple make in house? Or maybe a better analogy, the Retina Display seems pretty central to their brand now, across all their products. How many display factories has Apple built?

 

[bhuwan]

I disagree. To me, battery is equivalent to gas, not the engine of a BMW, as you mentioned in your example.

The drive train would be equivalent.

 

[AlMc]

Battery factory: Agreed TM should seriously consider. This is the rate limiting production step. I am not sure of the market cap on Panasonic but is it possible one of the big three or a Japanese/Chinese/German company could 'buy' Panasonic. If you want to slow down TM wouldn't that be on of the best ways to do so and kick start your own EV line?

 

[bonnie]

I throw my vote with 'it's too early for Tesla to focus on yet another new thing'. Startups cannot do everything at once. And they definitely cannot do everything at once well. I have no doubt they are working in-house on battery technology. And if it becomes the right business decision to bring it in-house (meaning, less hassle than dealing with suppliers), then like any business, that's what they'll do.

 

[bhuwan]

I throw my vote with 'it's too early for Tesla to focus on yet another new thing'. Startups cannot do everything at once. And they definitely cannot do everything at once well. I have no doubt they are working in-house on battery technology. And if it becomes the right business decision to bring it in-house (meaning, less hassle than dealing with suppliers), then like any business, that's what they'll do.

+1. I come from several startups that tried to focus on everything under the sun. Even today, elon said ( google hangout) that startups need to have focus.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

18650 cells are a commodity, i.e. a super low margin business. Running a battery plant will only bring down Tesla's overall operating margins. Not a good move.

- - - Updated - - -

As for today's action - it followed May 9th's action to the T. Open on a huge gap up, settle down for a while, peak mid day, then close back close to the settle down point. Here's hoping tomorrow's action follows May 10th's - open on another gap up and steady ramp all day.

Sure, there may be fewer shares shorted right now, but those shares likely have a cost basis 3x or 4x as much as last earnings. The total aggregate amount of money caught the wrong way here this time around is considerably larger. That has got to have a lot of shorts seriously worried this evening.

 

[TSLAopt]

Sure, there may be fewer shares shorted right now, but those shares likely have a cost basis 3x or 4x as much as last earnings. The total aggregate amount of money caught the wrong way here this time around is considerably larger. That has got to have a lot of shorts seriously worried this evening.

It does appear to be true that by the end of the day today there were no shares left available to short TSLA with at most brokers. I just verified that in my acct. this is great news as it means an incredulous short squeeze opportunity is still in the making. Seems that the existing shorts did everything they could to keep the price from rising or new shorts came in who will likely run for the hills once the price starts appreciating again. Would be great to see the borrow fee go up again too, right now it's still sub 1% but I imagine it will go up as/if the shorts try to find more shares to sell short.

 

[InTheShadows]

I may be wrong here, I thought I read somewhere that Tesla was making their battery packs in house, they are just getting the individual cells from Panasonic. That is, Panasonic is only supplying a "raw" material, just like they get raw aluminum and fabricate it.

And if its so easy to replicate it why can't Boeing get it right? They are a large cap company that makes the greatest jet in the world but they can't get the batteries right and they won't ask "the little guy" for help, even though he has offer to help at no cost.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think Bonnie has it right. If one of the promising but not yet nearly commercialized battery technologies is close to ripening, Tesla will be plucking it ahead of any other EV or ICE centric auto maker. Until then, with Samsung coming along as a 2nd supplier, Panasonic has every reason to invest in adding as many production lines and new factories as will be needed when the Gen III tsunami hits.

 

[hcsharp]

I've always felt like the biggest threat to Tesla is from the oil industry (and related). They are so big and so powerful that they can do virtually anything they want. They now control our elections and a sizable chunk of our economy. They continue to sponsor propaganda proliferation. One thing that's reassuring about Tesla is they like to do as much as they can in-house. This is unusual for most start-ups because they are so heavily capital constrained. While it's a bad idea for them to take on major battery production because they are already having problems ramping up, in some respects it would be good to have some protection against the all-powerful oil industry who could easily interfere with the battery supply chain. Big Oil and Major Auto will not simply stand by and let Tesla cut their profits.