I think May 9th's action was very different than today. On May 9th (I was riveted to the ticker all day) there was quite a bit of volatility throughout the day (opened at 70, hit low of 64, hit high of 75, was most of day at 72 around, and closed a bit below 70). Today, the stock seemed like it was stuck with little volatility, everything within 153-157 basically.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I think May 9th's action was very different than today. On May 9th (I was riveted to the ticker all day) there was quite a bit of volatility throughout the day (opened at 70, hit low of 64, hit high of 75, was most of day at 72 around, and closed a bit below 70). Today, the stock seemed like it was stuck with little volatility, everything within 153-157 basically.
Hi All,
Just enjoying watching my calls go up and down today
I've been a frustrated investors of TSLA, almost got in at the IPO, really appreciated the ups but got out (way) too early...I was scared of a strong pullback.
I should have listened to my "instinct": this is a great company, run by an amazing CEO with a fantastic product!
Anyway, got in with a few calls to make it more interesting!
I test drove the P85 two days ago and find it amazing, maybe just not as confortable as a Merc or BMW, not as many gadgets, but an impressive car!
Hope I can biy it with the product of those investments!
Today I opened my Mac and Spotify offered me spontaneously to listen to a track that I had not listend for 15 years at least: Electricity from OMD!!! What a sign)))
Then I kept on listening to the album, and while nervously looking at the opening, in the background, there was "Tesla Girls" !!! I had never heard that song before
Electricity omd...fabulous ! There is a cool remake too by apotygma berserk.
I've been thinking about the threat from big oil too. I've come to the conclusion that we are past the threat threshold for Tesla by big oil. Tesla has sold too many cars and are too big now -too much in the public eye, medium size by market cap for big oil to do anything without real vocal retaliation from the public. I also believe Elon has a lobby in Obama and his team as Obama has something to take credit for as his legacy. 3 + years left and 3 years till Gen 3 comes out. Hmmm... is that timing a coincidence? We are no longer at the "Who killed the EV1" phase. Besides there are loads of hybrids running around and demand for oil is steadily dwindling. Mature EVs naturally next phase.
If you squint just right, today's action was similar to May 9. One encouraging sign: The accumulation was on higher volume, the slide at the end of the day was low volume. As DaveT says, what matters is tomorrow's open. In isolation, May9 was not impressive during the day.
I do hope that you, Bonnie, and the others advocating purchasing the batteries to then package into their proprietary packs is the correct route and my worry that the battery supply is the Achilles
heal for TM and therefor the area of production that they need to protect from 'outside interests' is unfounded.
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sahanim
Member
Hey, What are you're thoughts on the margin calls that went out tonight? Do you think we'll see the crazy volume in the first hours of trading like your graph shows for May 10th?
kevin99
Member
I was reading back the excitement after Q2 ER and the Q1 live post someone posted today. It sure make me laugh hard...
Next time we should have a google hangout for moment like this, and at least do a virtual Hi-5!
Next time we should have a google hangout for moment like this, and at least do a virtual Hi-5!
I wasn't following the reception to Q1 ER and don't know if this was what happened last time around. However, a lot of the videos at Bloomberg seem to be stopping just short of opening ridiculing Tesla. Also, what the the h*ll is up with the loads of analysts turning up to say "Bah! Non-GAAP fraudsters." Is this how the media coverage of Tesla usually is? I thought Wall Street had started to change it's mind after Q1.
deonb
Active Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Saw that yesterday. But what is the actual data source??? "Markit"... Hmm. Valuable info if there is real time short interest data to be had.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Add Morgan Stanley to the list:
Upped from $109 to $149.
Here is their logic for the increase in price target:
(1) Raised 2015 Model S volume fcst to >37k from 31k on Asian expansion and elimination of supply bottlenecks.
(2) Raised exit OP margin assumption on their 15 year DCF to 15% from 13.5%.
(3) Raised exit EBITDA multiple to 10x from 9x.
(4) Raised their average annual Gen 3 volume by 10% through 2027.
Funny, on number (1), Elon says 40k volume in 2014 and MS makes it 37+k in 2015. Somehow they feel they have to be conservative and not go with Elon's number even though he has consistently outperformed his own number.
SebastianR
Active Member
I would argue that they have their own battery production already. What they don't have is their own cell production. I see this similar to Apple who was constraint by the amount of flash memory available in the world market at some point. What did they do? If my memory serves me right, they did a number of huge deals that secured the commodity flash chips, then went on to build their own processors (but not their own flash memory).
I think it is way too early to focus on cell production: for one existing cells are a commodity so there is little to win producing them in house and and secondly there is always the possibility of innovation in form factors / chemistry that may render any cell factory useless (or at lease require big capex to update the factory).
Now with the Super Charger network, I see a potential moat indeed: iTunes was "just another store" until it became the center piece in locking Apple users to Apple devices and ensuring sustained profits. I'm long Tesla, like them etc. but for the simple reason that they are the only ones who have a Super Charger network, I would only consider Tesla a viable electric car for me. I know that with a lot of effort, others can chip away at this (just like there are other app stores out there now), but if the Super Charger network is maintained / expanded as per current plans, I think this is and will be a huge advantage for the years to come.
Regarding the discussion on battery production, those of you who haven't done so yet should read up on the Batteries thread that discusses this. I propose reading from this post and out: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...stimate/page17?p=401005&viewfull=1#post401005
The short story (in my words) is that pretty soon Tesla might be at a level where it consumes virtually all of the available production capacity for 18650 cells in the world. At the same time, other demand for such batteries is dropping due to falling laptop sales. This means that Tesla cannot count on the market to invest the necessary billions into additional capacity - nobody is going to do that if there is only one potential customer, and that customer's demand level is highly uncertain. This means that if Tesla does nothing, supply of 18650 cells will soon severely restrict its growth potential.
The short story (in my words) is that pretty soon Tesla might be at a level where it consumes virtually all of the available production capacity for 18650 cells in the world. At the same time, other demand for such batteries is dropping due to falling laptop sales. This means that Tesla cannot count on the market to invest the necessary billions into additional capacity - nobody is going to do that if there is only one potential customer, and that customer's demand level is highly uncertain. This means that if Tesla does nothing, supply of 18650 cells will soon severely restrict its growth potential.
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Citizen-T
Active Member
Nobody said they should do nothing. We said they should not build their own battery cell factory.
I was more pointing to the thread as a source of background information (and maybe a better location for the discussion than the "short tern price movements" thread).
jkliu47
Member
Kevin99:
I just checked, and TradeStation has TSLA 1 min data all the way back to 6/29/10.
That was the opening day by the way.
The opening price that day was $19.00 (at 11:26 am ?!!) with closing at $23.94.
I just checked, and TradeStation has TSLA 1 min data all the way back to 6/29/10.
That was the opening day by the way.
The opening price that day was $19.00 (at 11:26 am ?!!) with closing at $23.94.
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