Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[justdoit]

Question now is where is the "bottom" and when's a good time to buy back in? Volatility is just too high right now so option premiums are also really high. So I'll probably hold off for a bit before I start buying back in.

Edit: The entire market is also down and in the red.

 

[justthateasy]

I forgot to look at the indexes because I was concentrated on TSLA but the overall market is taking a beating and TSLA got dragged down along with it. Personally, I think we're in the red because of the entire market. If it wasn't for that we'd probably be in the green by a few cents.

 

[ckessel]

Well, went to lunch and the stock has erased everything and then some. Ride that roller coaster.

I'm still a deer in the headlights.

 

[v12 to 12v]

You realize CitizenT, DaveT, sleepy, etc. all have become very influential in terms of the direction the stock will take, on these kind of days of run-up or decline anyways. Just look at the # of users browsing this thread on those days. Guests usually outnumber members 2:1 or 3:1. They notice big movement in the share price and check TMC for opinions. When's CitizenT calling for caution? What's sleepy's prediction for the close? What about DaveT's take on the fundamentals?

I'm just saying, forget the Morgan Stanley analyst ... You guys have become the influencers ... and your opinions may become self fulfilling prophecies

Self-fulfilling prophecy. Exactly what I was thinking.
Also, I think that there is now more chatter here for the purpose of influencing, rather than sharing practical insights and news, than ever before.
I started tuning it out. My goals are unchanged.

 

[justthateasy]

That is what I was afraid when there is the jump without significant news. All it takes to reverse the momentum is it runs up too fast and furious:

Well this is how I'm taking the price action in the last 2.5 hours.....

Scenario 1 would be that Tesla Tuesday came early on Massacre Monday and we can expect to be in the green tomorrow.

Scenario 2 would be we still get a Tesla Tuesday in the morning and a recovery in the afternoon.

- - - Updated - - -

TSLA went from bottoming out at 160.25 and back in the green with +2.50 in the last 15 minutes. Definitely a roller coaster! :scared:

 

[austinEV]

Just started lending club last month. It's blowing my mind with it's awesomeness. I can't recommend it yet as I haven't given it enough time to see how many people will default.

I am going to start an off-topic thread tonight on Lending Club. It's my favorite investment outside of TSLA. I DO have data over 2.5 years.

 

[Krugerrand]

Huh? Interest rates are so low and mortgage interest is tax deductible. Compounding dividends on a super-safe stock that returns a measly 3% would be a much better use of your capital than paying down debt that is that cheap. Just make sure you are investing the difference in your mortgage payments (e.g. between the 20-year and 30-year) don't go spending it on bubble gum.

Yeah, I've heard the 'interest rates are so low' argument before. A lot can happen (and usually does) over that 30 year period. There's not a thing wrong with getting some equity built up quickly in property.

 

[kevin99]

I forgot to look at the indexes because I was concentrated on TSLA but the overall market is taking a beating and TSLA got dragged down along with it. Personally, I think we're in the red because of the entire market. If it wasn't for that we'd probably be in the green by a few cents.

Yeah what happened to the broad market? Why QQQ took a dive off the cliff in half hour?

I too not paying attention to the broad market. TSLA is trading on its own events and development. The external influence is far less than the internal one.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Well well guys...we've had an 8 percentage point intraday drop. Maybe this is the buying opportunity you have been waiting for?

 

[austinEV]

Well well guys...we've had an 8 percentage point intraday drop. Maybe this is the buying opportunity you have been waiting for?

Tomorrow feels like the last day of the TSLA 2-day sale.

 

[TSLAopt]

Well well guys...we've had an 8 percentage point intraday drop. Maybe this is the buying opportunity you have been waiting for?

I'm pretty sure today is a record for most shares traded in TSLA, 45mm shares and still probably a couple million more betweennow and the close...very strange considering no real news.

 

[Borris]

Took the opportunity of this 'dip' to get in for some shares. Crazy day, and maybe a crazy move since we got tuesday coming up. Anyone got an idea about tomorrow?

 

[sleepyhead]

Self-fulfilling prophecy. Exactly what I was thinking.
Also, I think that there is now more chatter here for the purpose of influencing, rather than sharing practical insights and news, than ever before.
I started tuning it out. My goals are unchanged.

I think you guys are giving too much credit to the value of the posts that we make here on TMC. I don't think that our posts have any influence at all on the share price. The 100 or so guests reading this thread is not enough to make a difference in the stock price. And you will not see big-money hedge fund guys reading this thread to find out from us when to buy or sell.

I bought some puts to hedge earlier today when stock was at ATH, but I did not post this so you can't say that I am trying to influence stock price. It wasn't until the stock broke $168 that I posted a quick note that "short-term momentum is broken and I expect stock to close below $165."

I wrote that so that people on this board would have a chance to get out if they were on the fence of doing so. Even though I bought a few puts, I would still be much better off if the stock continued going up. Those puts were just bets that I was reading the market correctly, and they were for a small dollar amount. Not enough to offset my losses in TSLA unless the stock really starts tanking hard, which won't happen.

I mentioned this before, but the macroeconomic conditions are not favorable right now to be buying high flying stocks like TSLA. Wait at least until Sep 18th when the Fed speaks out before buying back in. Unless of course we get a good pullback in Tesla before then. But don't be chasing this stock on the way up, at least not right now. Syria, Egypt, Fed Tapering, Markets at ATH, interest rates rising way too fast,...

 

[Krugerrand]

That's only true if you have no other debt. If you have any debt at a higher interest rate, it's worth getting (or keeping) a 30 year mortgage in order to pay the other debt of first.

As a first time property buyer, I doubt very much the poster in question is getting a mortgage if they're carrying any other significant debt load. Unless the US is back to just handing out mortgages willy nilly?

Bi-monthly doesn't take off any time from a mortgage. Two-weekly does.But that's not the same thing. You can similarly cut your mortgage time down by making 1 extra payment per year. That is effectively all that weekly or two-weekly payment systems do.

Been there, done that. Worked great and is far more powerful than 1 extra payment per year, but then I understand the US has some really funky mortgages floating around.

But again, it's seldom the right thing to do unless your mortgage is your only debt (and even then you have to weigh it up against e.g. leaving money in TSLA). Mortgage interest is tax deductible, other interest is not. So e.g. if you have a 2.5% mortgage interest rate and a 2% car financing rate, and you pay 35% taxes, it's still better making those extra principal payments on the car rather than the mortgage. Once the car has been paid off (e.g. 2 years early), use that money you would have paid on the car for 2 years and pay principal on the mortgage.

That would put you further ahead than just having paid it into the mortgage.

You forget that a lot can happen between now and then. If hard times come around that paid off car isn't going to be of any help. It will have depreciated in value and will continue to do so for its rather short life span. The property on the other hand, with the equity you'd built into it, might very well be the saving grace.

 

[sullitf]

Took the opportunity of this 'dip' to get in for some shares. Crazy day, and maybe a crazy move since we got tuesday coming up. Anyone got an idea about tomorrow?

Its interesting that people are taking advantage of the 8% intraday dip which was preceded by a ~9% gain earlier in the day. Its a dip for sure, but I wouldn't put too much faith in it being a real buying opportunity given the day as a whole is still up ~1%

 

[Citizen-T]

I think you guys are giving too much credit to the value of the posts that we make here on TMC. I don't think that our posts have any influence at all on the share price. The 100 or so guests reading this thread is not enough to make a difference in the stock price. And you will not see big-money hedge fund guys reading this thread to find out from us when to buy or sell.

Agreed.

 

[johnnydop]

I'm pretty sure today is a record for most shares traded in TSLA, 45mm shares and still probably a couple million more betweennow and the close...very strange considering no real news.

Where are you seeing 45mm shares traded? I only see 23mm.

 

[uselesslogin]

More importantly short interest is out.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
Not much change these are trades on 8/12.

 

[Johann Koeber]

I never let taxes affect my trading decisions unless I am just a month or two away from LTCG. Otherwise, I do what I feel is best and then pay the taxes if I have to.

A very wise position.

Remember: you are only taxed on the gains. And if you enter a new position , then you will again be taxed only on the gains from there.

So many people have lost money trying to do the tax thing.

My rules are:

first: max out the tax free account
second: after that ignore taxes, just go after all the profits you can get

Be happy.

 

[kevin99]

You know what? Finally I figure out what drove today's run-up to $173! It is John Peterson again. His newly minted article is out:

Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints

Ok now he needs to pay me all the additional clicks. I think he does need that to cover his loss.

He should really write these type of articles more often!

- - - Updated - - -

It is hard to believe a person such as JP does exist. Or does it?? It feels like a fabricated voice with a per-determined agenda that ignores every piece of evidence say otherwise.