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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Just in case anyone cares, I am all in today after the upgrade. The reaction of the stock this morning to this upgrade alone is a strong signal to me of continued high visibility and responsiveness to news of demand for Tesla's products. I had begun to slightly doubt the responsiveness of the stock to positive news, but am now confident about again given the pattern of the last week. And we all know there is much, much more positive news to come.

What this means loosely is that I believe that I/we here *still* have a much better sense than the overall market of the massive demand for Tesla Motors cars that is unlikely to decrease in the near future. As DaveT so aptly put it a while ago, this company is production/supply-constrained for years to come at almost all reasonable projections even without the GenIII car, and that is a MUCH easier problem to solve than a company that is demand-constrained. The company literally takes cash from hungry buyers waiting in line and THEN MAKES THEM A CAR. NO OTHER CAR COMPANY ON THE PLANET can do that. There is so much pent-up demand that, if one assumes even a remotely rational and stable economic climate, this company is literally a cash and profit machine.

So I'm all in. No more cash on the sidelines.

And for the record, my pattern analysis of Washington lawmakers right now points to a less than 1% chance of default, which is the only real macroeconomic force I was worried about in the short / medium term.

Off to the races towards Q3 folks. Get in before more of "them" catch onto us!

Happy investing.
 
Some idiot on CNBC said that TSLA should do a recall because of the car-fire, how can you be that ignorant?

I heard it too...I was waiting for him to discuss Tesla's government loan, ask why they didn't make a nice hybrid and whether Elon dating Carmen Diaz was a distraction. How do these guys stay employed? People who question valuation I get....but haters just got to hate.:tongue:
 

Yep. The clip they have there only represents about the first half of his phone interview... weird.

And what's sad for CNBC is that Craig Irwin claims he is an expert in batteries, and correctly calls out one of the key reasons why Tesla is in a position of advantage - their batteries are cheaper to make than everyone else's. One of the other hosts calls him on it and asks if the battery tech is really that important <facepalm>. One just has to look at the Cadillac ELR, which is more or less the same price as the Tesla Model S. Are they really comparable cars? (that's a rhetorical question)

TSLA looks like it is having a buoyant second half of the day, and is resisting the urge to fall further. Might even make $186 by EOD.
 
Everyone seems pretty confident about tomorrow ... anyone worried that with the talks reportedly "breaking down" the markets will open with panic tomorrow? I know TSLA did great today but if there is not some positive press out of the house or senate tonight I think it could get ugly quick tomorrow.

I think so, too. Fitch put just now the US AAA rating on watch negative and with the House spoiling todays efforts its doubtful if the oct 17th deadline will be met. My money is off the table for now (regarding options, that is).
 
I sold all of my call options few days ago at $176 thinking that the stock would fall without a debt ceiling deal. I was right about the politicians being useless, but certainly was wrong about TSLA's movements! I apologize for anyone who listened to my doom & gloom posts recently.

I'm still afraid that even with a deal, the US credit rating may still be downgraded in the near future. This will certainly cause a sell-off. Also, the deal may not get done by tomorrow at this rate, which will also be bad for the market. Lastly, if we somehow default on our debt (which I give 0.01% chance), then it will be catastrophic...

I'm going to wait a little longer to see how things play out before setting up my Q3 earnings play. I may miss out on another $10, but if the politicians are as worthless as I think they are, I may find myself some really good deals soon.

Good luck everyone!
 
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