Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Bonken]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/tesl...debris-pzaUhL9WQc~UWzZgrcvdmQ.html?cmpid=yhoo

Intresting interview, even thought nothing really new, except possibly that he wants to create a design and engineering center in europe... I wish I could find the whole interview instead of this shortened one

 

[RationalOptimist]

That Bloomberg article came up again at the London Showroom Opening this evening.

I was standing right next to a "Financial Times" journalist who seemingly couldn’t wait to catch Elon out, and left the event right after to publish an annoying article that’s already been retweeted all over the web to fuel tomorrows FUD sites.

… but check out below what I noticed the journalist did right after Elon's answer ….


Here's the video. At 42m 20 seconds "Henry Foy from the Financial Times, London" asks a question:-

Tesla London Store Opening reception with Elon Musk - YouTube



Mr Foy:- "Bloomberg are saying that you told them this afternoon that Tesla was overvalued. Is that true and if so why ?"



EM :- "… I think we have a kind of high valuation and its certainly a higher valuation than we have any right to deserve … BUT none the less we will endeavour to execute well and meet the expectations of those who have the good faith to invest in us. Ultimately I think the value of Tesla will be greater than it is today, and I think potentially maybe quite a bit greater than it is today, but I actually like the idea of trying to justify a stock valuation."


This took place at 9pm, yet by 10pm a headline appears on the FT website stating "TESLA ADMITS MARKET CAP IS SUPERCHARGED" but it only quotes the first few words of his sentence!



What niggled me was this - I was patiently waiting in turn to ask my own question when the FT journo nudged his way to the front, and, using his Journo status, jumps the queue to ask the Bloomberg question ... BUT as soon as EM was finishing his sentence the journo had spun round and with a clenched fist said 'Yes, Hah, Gotcha' … and walked off briskly to edit his article and publish it online before the event was even over. The three people I was with all looked at him a bit odd as he seemed positively ecstatic as he left the scene.


Anyway, I thoroughly enjoyed the evening and it was good to chat to so many other positively charged individuals.

Thanks for sharing. I see your revelation is now being linked to in one of the comments on the article. In the Internet era, it's a lot harder for reporters to get away with that kind of crap.

 

[Julian Cox]

Kevin99 - not only do you have my consent but I would be delighted if you can arrange to republish the Tesla Reality Check piece in the Mercury. By all means credit it to the Analyst's desk at Investnaire.com

In the mean time this: http://www.autonews.com/article/20131024/OEM05/131029933/tesla-fire-from-crash-wont-be-investigated-by-u-s#axzz2ijSMFHAf

is significant. Basically NHTSA official, Tesla Models S, No safety fault, nothing to see here, move along. Expect official Tesla Press release later today.

This will release TSLA to +5% today. Strong and unequivocal buy recommendation. Note this will not put a stop to pre Q3E volatility in the case of day trades but for those with a slightly longer time horizon early morning today may well be one of the last best opportunities to get set up for a Q3 earnings surprise.

JC

 

[hoang51]

Pre-market value for TSLA doesn't indicate anything about the "+5%" that you're calling for. Yesterday's after market saw a larger jump into $177. This morning is a pathetic $174ish. Well, here's hoping that TSLA can make a good leap today by closing higher than $175. Pre-market value today looks disappointing that it couldn't keep the $177 set by yesterday's after market.

 

[ibcs]

Article in Wall Street Journal this morning - Hear on the Street Section - Compares Tesla to Amazon in the early days with evaluations. Mostly negative from point of view stock price reflects 2020 sales volume. No new news, but reiterates caution with stock. Hopefully, we will get some more shorts before Q3 announcement.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Here are some random thoughts on the board and the stock...

1. I think all the chatter here about what's allowable on the board and what's not, and the splitting of threads, has quieted the voices and diversity of the stock talk.

Just to be clear ... the moderators aren't trying to change "what's allowable on the board", we're just trying to find a better way to organize what's posted to make it more valuable to everyone. Right now, too many great insights get buried in the avalanche of posts in some threads. I could make a case that part of the reason some contributors have gone silent is that it's tough to be heard over the noise.

To your list, I'd also add that some contributors (e.g. sleepyhead) largely exited their TSLA positions a while back, once the trajectory flattened. Sleepyhead says he's now almost entirely in solar stocks, so it's not surprising that he's no longer providing the same detailed posts about TSLA that he did a few months ago.

 

[Norse]

Just to be clear ... the moderators aren't trying to change "what's allowable on the board", we're just trying to find a better way to organize what's posted to make it more valuable to everyone. Right now, too many great insights get buried in the avalanche of posts in some threads. I could make a case that part of the reason some contributors have gone silent is that it's tough to be heard over the noise.

To your list, I'd also add that some contributors (e.g. sleepyhead) largely exited their TSLA positions a while back, once the trajectory flattened. Sleepyhead says he's now almost entirely in solar stocks, so it's not surprising that he's no longer providing the same detailed posts about TSLA that he did a few months ago.

Just to be clear, the reason alot of people have gone in to solar is cause people think a upside could be extreme atm, I am more bullish on Tesla then ever, even tho I did not hold that much stock as I used to. I have been buying this week and I have more Tesla calls then I have ever had. I think if we stick in the green today, its a great day to buy. I am very bullish on Q3, since we now know that Tesla will deliver a lot less to Norway in October, so it means there are hopefully not that many cars in transit as many have feared. I'm not speaking for Sleepy, but I think this goes for him aswell. He has a job, kids and doing alot of reasearch for us. I am pretty sure we will see him in this thread before earnings, then once again I do not speak for him.

Also, im buying today, no matter green or red! GL boys!

 

[Citizen-T]

Retesting the 50 day.

 

[sleepyhead]

Just to be clear ... the moderators aren't trying to change "what's allowable on the board", we're just trying to find a better way to organize what's posted to make it more valuable to everyone. Right now, too many great insights get buried in the avalanche of posts in some threads. I could make a case that part of the reason some contributors have gone silent is that it's tough to be heard over the noise.

To your list, I'd also add that some contributors (e.g. sleepyhead) largely exited their TSLA positions a while back, once the trajectory flattened. Sleepyhead says he's now almost entirely in solar stocks, so it's not surprising that he's no longer providing the same detailed posts about TSLA that he did a few months ago.

The main reason I don't post here much anymore is like Robert said, that posts get lost in the avalanche of posts. I don't feel like typing for 5 minutes, just to see my post fall 3 pages back 15 minutes later (or even an hour or two later.

I have also focused all of my attention on solar stocks, so you will still find me writing in the alternative energy thread.

I am still very bullish on TSLA and almost bought some calls early yesterday morning when the stock was at $164. But in the end I spent that money on solar calls instead. I might get into TSLA to play the earnings, but there is a potential sentiment shift going on right now and I see too much uncertainty in TSLA in the short run. TSLA is still a buy and hold stock in my book and you can get burned with short term calls.

I also don't think it is fair for me to post on TSLA when I don't have that much skin in the game. I have a few bull call spreads, and if TSLA goes to $215 by Dec. expiration I will get max payout on all of them. But that is a very small portion of my portfolio.

As soon as these solar stocks get to a point where I think they are fairly valued, I will be getting back into TSLA with a larger percentage of my portfolio. I just can't justify doing it today, since i still think that solar has to double or triple in the next couple of months just to get to a more reasonable valuation. There is also the risk that the market doesn't value the solar stocks the same way I do, but I am extremely confident that these stocks will not be lower 6 months from now than they are today. I cannot say the same thing about TSLA.

Even though I believe TSLA will cross $300 next year, I can envision a scenario where it goes below $100. But there is no way CSIQ is going to be below $20 six months from now or JASO below $10, or SOL below $5. I like the risk-reward much better in solar.

I actually think that there is a lot less risk in solar and a lot more potential reward. It is a no-brainer for me. TSLA is still a great buy and hold investment, and I wouldn't be surprised to be buying TSLA at $300 next year after my solar stocks play out. I am just banking that solar goes up 200% vs. TSLA 100%, which would validate my strategy.

 

[PV4EV]

Thanks for sharing. I see your revelation is now being linked to in one of the comments on the article. In the Internet era, it's a lot harder for reporters to get away with that kind of crap.

Excellent ! Thanks for letting me know :smile:


One of the other people who witnessed this event called me up this morning to say he'd seen the FT headline and was really annoyed with the "muck raking hack".

He went on to say that he's done some digging and found out that said journo is, amazingly, the FT's "automotive correspondent" and added that he thought the 'kid was a spotty bespectacled hooray-Henry who looked like he'd never driven a car yet apparently we're all supposed to place good faith in his reporting on motoring issues' !!!

If he ends up working for someone else, perhaps he'll apply for a job at the left-leaning Guardian or BBC. Maybe he'll end up wiping Cory Johnson's brow or sumthin.

 

[Convert2013]

Kevin99 - not only do you have my consent but I would be delighted if you can arrange to republish the Tesla Reality Check piece in the Mercury. By all means credit it to the Analyst's desk at Investnaire.com

In the mean time this: http://www.autonews.com/article/201...ash-wont-be-investigated-by-u-s#axzz2ijSMFHAf

is significant. Basically NHTSA official, Tesla Models S, No safety fault, nothing to see here, move along. Expect official Tesla Press release later today.

This will release TSLA to +5% today. Strong and unequivocal buy recommendation. Note this will not put a stop to pre Q3E volatility in the case of day trades but for those with a slightly longer time horizon early morning today may well be one of the last best opportunities to get set up for a Q3 earnings surprise.

JC

It's pretty clear that the analysts who are supporting short positions are contributing heavily to the volatility with all the false interview data-publishing. If our group here can make a collective effort to present a strong point of view, we should. Analysts have been using our forum as reference and support material quite frequently.

 

[electrictorque]

I just got this alert from fidelity.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it would not
investigate Tesla
Motors(TSLA) for a fiery crash that occurred near Seattle in early
October.
The agency said the accident did not reveal any design flaw that would
provoke an investigation of the crash, which received media attention after
photographs and videos of a Tesla S car in flames were posted on the Internet

 

[fjm9898]

I just got this alert from fidelity.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it would not
investigate Tesla
Motors(TSLA) for a fiery crash that occurred near Seattle in early
October.
The agency said the accident did not reveal any design flaw that would
provoke an investigation of the crash, which received media attention after
photographs and videos of a Tesla S car in flames were posted on the Internet

you about 18 hours behind.

 

[hoang51]

I just got this alert from fidelity.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it would not
investigate Tesla
Motors(TSLA) for a fiery crash that occurred near Seattle in early
October.
The agency said the accident did not reveal any design flaw that would
provoke an investigation of the crash, which received media attention after
photographs and videos of a Tesla S car in flames were posted on the Internet

Fidelity is late in on the news. This was known since yesterday around 9 PM EST. Unfortunately, such news isn't helping TSLA right now and it's just sinking.

 

[Convert2013]

Tweeting Elon (for those who Tweet to Elon) to clarify his position on stock price in a Tweet will also make the record straight. Farzy? I abhor inaccuracy in analyst reviews and reporting. I honestly feel bad for ELon being asked the same question by cunning reporters and him having to politely replying over and over again.

 

[Cameron]

Tweeting Elon (for those who Tweet to Elon) to clarify his position on stock price in a Tweet will also make the record straight. Farzy? I abhor inaccuracy in analyst reviews and reporting. I honestly feel bad for ELon being asked the same question by cunning reporters and him having to politely replying over and over again.

He just needs to tweet Julian's article!
Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth). | Investnaire: Focused Investing to Millionaire

 

[aznt1217]

Tweeting Elon (for those who Tweet to Elon) to clarify his position on stock price in a Tweet will also make the record straight. Farzy? I abhor inaccuracy in analyst reviews and reporting. I honestly feel bad for ELon being asked the same question by cunning reporters and him having to politely replying over and over again.

No I don't think that will do anything. Aside from regulatory restrictions on commenting directly on stock price and other pieces... he has other things to do that are way more important than worrying about day to day fluctuations in shares.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Article in Wall Street Journal this morning - Hear on the Street Section - Compares Tesla to Amazon in the early days with evaluations. Mostly negative from point of view stock price reflects 2020 sales volume. No new news, but reiterates caution with stock. Hopefully, we will get some more shorts before Q3 announcement.

i hate the comparison to amazon. yes both are up in price and both rapidly expanding but that is where the comparison ends. tesla offers something others don"t (a unique car) amazon is just another reatail outlet. tesla also is generating a profit while expanding, amazon consistently loses money every quarter. tesla has an extremely high margin on each car, amazon has almost no margin to speak of.

 

[Convert2013]

No I don't think that will do anything. Aside from regulatory restrictions on commenting directly on stock price and other pieces... he has other things to do that are way more important than worrying about day to day fluctuations in shares.

He has already been commenting on valuation with some detail, which is surprising for a CEO, whether it be right or wrong. Bottom line he is being asked on TSLA valuation over and over again by these rogue reporters, and logically it's the most important contributer to TSLA volatility right now. Elon's mind set is of an engineer with less PR skill on this topic, and people are fully taking advantage. I think he should take to Twitter as he often does and put this valuation topic to rest once in for all.

 

[hoang51]

Looking at the 3 month chart for TSLA, it looks like we are going to stay around the $160-$170s before Q3 results. I think that by the time Q3 results are announced, breaking the $190s is looking much harder to do. A 20% jump I find it hard because the last quarter earnings result, TSLA didn't even break 20% jump after 2nd quarter earnings.