Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Curt Renz]

Elon answered this question several weeks ago. If you'll remember, he was standing outside giving a Supercharger Network demonstration. Then he was asked the question again during a lengthy interview at the Fremont factory and that interview came out right at the same time as the Supercharger demo. When asked the question then, it wasn't a 'quiet period'. What he said when asked the question last week is just what it said back then. This isn't new, he's simply repeating an already established answer. Not sure why so many seem to think it is new.

What is said by an executive after the end of a quarter is taken with greater meaning by market participants than what is said before. Preliminary figures that are available to executives after the end of a quarter can either change or affirm earlier opinions. Elon's affirmation of his earlier opinions carried greater weight after the quarter had ended.

The best general advice at any point in a quarter may be what I wrote in post #11351, which was for Elon to answer evaluation questions by saying, “The market appears to understand what our company intends to be accomplishing five years from now, and we are working very hard to justify that confidence.”

 

[RobotGrease]

I'm hearing that Consumer Reports has decided to recommend Model S. I don't see a source yet.

How ironic. Hopefully the news doesn't get overshadowed.

 

[Xamlit]

Carli Ichan recommends that Apple buy Tesla?

Short term stock effect cause maybe?

http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/28/technology/innovation/apple-tesla/index.html?source=yahoo_quote

 

[FredTMC]

I'm hearing that Consumer Reports has decided to recommend Model S. I don't see a source yet.

Found it: Consumer Reports pulls recommendation for Toyota Camry | 4-Traders

wow. This is excellent! And Camry is now NOT recommended due to poor crash test results.

Media needs to report on this.

 

[MikeC]

Were they not already recommending the car they gave their highest score ever to?

 

[uselesslogin]

wow. This is excellent! And Camry is now NOT recommended due to poor crash test results.

Media needs to report on this.

On that note does anyone does anyone know when the Model S will be tested by the IIHS and get the overlap test?

 

[RobotGrease]

What is said by an executive after the end of a quarter is taken with greater meaning by market participants than what is said before. Preliminary figures on a quarter available to executives can either change or affirm earlier opinions. Elon's affirmation of his earlier opinions carried greater weight after the quarter had ended.

The best general advice at any point in a quarter may be what I wrote in post #11351, which was for Elon to answer evaluation questions by saying, “The market appears to understand what our company intends to be accomplishing five years from now, and we are working very hard to justify that confidence.”

So given what Elon has been responding, what do you believe it tells us to expect? I can only imagine it is an attempt to calmly lower expectations for a non-blowout Q3 ER. People want to say he's trying to trap the shorts, but I dont think so. Lets remember that first and foremost he is unfiltered and says it like it is. When he was optimistic, he said so: "tsunami of hurt for the shorts". I would sooner believe his opinion of the near-term stock value and movement has changed rather than believe he has changed his nature and is strategically creating a bear-trap for Q3.

So I take his words at face value and expect a less than blowout Q3 ER. Curt: What do you take his recent comments to indicate?

 

[SciGuy13]

Were they not already recommending the car they gave their highest score ever to?

They will not recommend something until there is enough data to support the recommendation. I bet the performance in the Washington FIRE sealed the deal for them.

 

[AlMc]

Were they not already recommending the car they gave their highest score ever to?

They usually don't Recommend cars with no frequency of repair history...so even the best new cars (like Model S), while scoring high, will not be recommended.

 

[spacekadet]

Has anyone heard anything about another Model S fire in Mexico?

 

[Citizen-T]

Has anyone heard anything about another Model S fire in Mexico?

Yes, there is a thread on that here: Second Model S fire

 

[spacekadet]

Tesla Model S officially recommended by Consumer Reports. Woohoo!

http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/28/aut...umer-reports-recommended/index.html?iid=HP_LN

 

[Norse]

A car just caught fire without crashing in Norway just now! http://mobil.bt.no/nyheter/lokalt/Bilbrann-pa-E39-i-Asane-2994627.html#.Um6b8aa9LCQ can someone call jalopnik? I bet Volvo-shares will go down today. Plus all ICE-cars should get recalled.

 

[MikeC]

Not a MS, right? You scared me!

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Heinz-Harald Frentzen compares Tesla Model S and Porsche Panamera Hybrid.

Autotest : Tesla Modell S gegen Porsche Panamera Hybrid - Auto - Technologie - Wirtschaftswoche

Article is in german but here is his verdict:

"Within the Panamera works the best Hybrid engine You can have at this point...but the Tesla is the cooler car."

 

[Norse]

Not a MS, right? You scared me!

No it was a Volvo.

 

[FluxCap]

When Elon made his comments about the share price, we were in the period between the end of the quarter and the earnings report for that quarter. It should be treated as a quiet period for comments from company executives regarding matters that could affect the share price. Rightly or wrongly, Elon's somewhat negative responses to questions about the share price may have been interpreted by many to indicate that the upcoming report will be disappointing.

When asked about the stock valuation last week, Elon should simply have said that we are in the quiet period and cannot comment on that. The company really needs marketing, public relations and finance departments that have influence on company executives who are primarily engineers regarding what they should be saying in public.

I agree with Curt 100%. As I have said in the past, I think Elon has tripped up a bit in public relations more than once, and if I was advising him I would have worked harder to prevent it. Hiring key reinforcements like Doug Field from Apple to (hopefully) free up some of Elon's time and share the burden is so, so important. I would like to see more hires like this, and less off-the-cuff remarks by Elon that tread the line very closely to forward-looking statements about the performance of TSLA that could get him (and us, as shareholders) in trouble.

 

[Citizen-T]

Volume is so paper thing right now. Very strange behavior given all the news.

 

[fjm9898]

Volume is so paper thing right now. Very strange behavior given all the news.

Ya i noticed that too. Has me concerned. Maybe people took the positive and negative and decided to wait it out?

 

[farzyness]

Ya i noticed that too. Has me concerned. Maybe people took the positive and negative and decided to wait it out?

I think this is good news TBH. Car fires don't seem to be affecting Tesla's stock anymore (as it shouldn't, because you know, the cars were involved in some SERIOUS accidents). It trading down on such low volume also gives me confidence that sellers are starting to run out. Once a catalyst introduces itself I would be looking for a strong move up. Great set-up for Q3 ER potential. I'd be a buyer here if I had some income.

My 2 cents.