Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[AlMc]

After hours trade of TSLA seems to react to Apple drop from their lowered margins guidance. TSLA was slowly creeping up AH to $163.2 and the moment Apple earnings hit and the stock swung up and then down hard TSLA started to drop as well, down to $162.1. We'll see what Apple does tomorrow, but I can't even fully decide which is the good and which is the bad option. Consider the following:

1) Investors decide that 0.4% lower margin guidance is not that bad after hearing more details on the conf call and Apple recovers and starts a slow gain march tomorrow. People pull money from elsewhere and send it more to Apple to take advantage of this upwards movement. Nasdaq is pulled to the green and other stocks with it unless they're dumped to get money to Apple.

2) Apple doesn't fix this crap with the earnings call and the stock keeps dropping. Big money pulls some funds out of Apple to take some of the profits on the table from recent runup and not so great guidance sending Apple and Nasdaq to the red. However they start to pile that money to other interesting stocks approaching earnings. Might show a nice inflow of cash to TSLA that is bouncing around the support in low $160s.

Can't really say which scenario is more positive for TSLA Might even be that money coming out of Apple and going to TSLA in preparation for TSLA earnings might be the better option.

The third option (not numbered) is the scenario I see as most likely. Big money/short term traders looking to get a nice $10-15/share increase..buy TSLA at 162, sell at 177+ after ER.
(OK..so that is also my hope so money starts coming back to TSLA)

 

[fjm9898]

FB is on Wednesday So i think they would go chasing it before they go after Tesla.

 

[Cameron]

Can't really say which scenario is more positive for TSLA Might even be that money coming out of Apple and going to TSLA in preparation for TSLA earnings might be the better option.

I think I agree!
In my opinion, TSLAs poor performance over the past few weeks has a lot to due with a lack of big buying pressure. We had all this excitement this summer with Tesla in the headlines everyday and everyone was jumping in to get a piece of the action. We've hit this down period though were Tesla is either getting bad press or no press at all. I'm still betting all of this will change with Q3. With money leaving NFLX, AAPL, etc as long as Tesla doesn't have a bad earnings we could see the excitement spark up again.

also with all this doom & gloom surrounding Tesla lately, the short percentage must be quite high again? I think we could all use a good short squeeze!

 

[Convert2013]

I think I agree!
In my opinion, TSLAs poor performance over the past few weeks has a lot to due with a lack of big buying pressure. We had all this excitement this summer with Tesla in the headlines everyday and everyone was jumping in to get a piece of the action. We've hit this down period though were Tesla is either getting bad press or no press at all. I'm still betting all of this will change with Q3. With money leaving NFLX, AAPL, etc as long as Tesla doesn't have a bad earnings we could see the excitement spark up again.

I think so too as long as Tesla can impress on the rate of growth. Google is the only big cap that is still growing at break neck speed.

 

[tander]

This is an unequivocal, absolute lie. Valuation is a function of assumptions. No analyst on the planet can predict the future value of a company with 100% certainty. Every single model used by analysts to value a stock uses assumptions about future profits, revenues, cashflows and liabilities and those assumptions have a massive effect on the valuation. You may assume the future will be worse than some do, but that is far from "mathematical fact," unless you happen to possess a time machine. If you do, please let me use it.

You might be misunderstanding what fundamental analysis is. In finance, FUNDAMENTAL analysis is derived from balance sheets and accounting records, not assumptions or revenue projections, that's the whole point of good accounting. So on a fundamental level, Tesla is unequivocally OVERvalued right now. That is what Musk is talking about in the snippet about his thoughts on valuation. I have studied more finance and accounting than most and I think it can be really useful to know the the distinctions in order to discuss these things..

 

[justthateasy]

Ya the NASDAQ took another down turn and pushed TSLA through it.
I am going to hold my Puts and see what tomorrow brings. see if we bounce of $160 again of if AAPL drive the market north and bring Tesla with it.

Now that AAPL is out and in the red after hours, will it drag TSLA along with it tomorrow?

 

[Convert2013]

Musk is 1) either tapering expectations for Q3 and guidance or 2) setting up the shorts for a blow-out q3. I am sure he is pretty darn bothered about the existing large short interest in TSLA and he wants to get that down down down. With the keys to a submarine Lotus, Mr. Musk is Mr. Bond and Iron Man,and I'd like to believe it is #2 that he will do on Nov 5th.

 

[justthateasy]

It looks like both AAPL and TSLA are back up near the closing price after hours. These are one of those times where I'll never understand the market.

 

[mershaw2001]

Musk is 1) either tapering expectations for Q3 and guidance or 2) setting up the shorts for a blow-out q3. I am sure he is pretty darn bothered about the existing large short interest in TSLA and he wants to get that down down down. With the keys to a submarine Lotus, Mr. Musk is Mr. Bond and Iron Man,and I'd like to believe it is #2 that he will do on Nov 5th.

I don't agree. I was reading that german interview that was a translation and musk said he doesn't look at the stock price anymore. He said "oh is it down? I didn't even know, i deleted that app with the stock price from my smart phone". I agree- he doesn't like short sellers. However, before the short sellers were potentially going to make tesla go bankrupt because they couldn't raise capital at a good rate (30 dollars was too low, 92 was much better!). Now, the short sellers are here to stay and they are just a pest. He's not going to try to make another elaborate trap.

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[RobotGrease]

Musk is 1) either tapering expectations for Q3 and guidance or 2) setting up the shorts for a blow-out q3. I am sure he is pretty darn bothered about the existing large short interest in TSLA and he wants to get that down down down. With the keys to a submarine Lotus, Mr. Musk is Mr. Bond and Iron Man,and I'd like to believe it is #2 that he will do on Nov 5th.

He has never acted in a manner representative of your 2nd option in the past, in my memory. I do however see him historically saying it exactly as he sees it. When he was annoyed at the shorts, he said outright they are in for a tsunami of hurt. He is no longer saying that. He is being more cautious, which leads me to believe that he is less optimistic about the current relationship between company performance and stock price performance. He could be wrong, I could be wrong, this could all be way off, but I would sooner assume "clippedy-clop is a horse, not a zebra".


Here is the chart as I see it. The only support I see at this point is the bottom of the downtrend channel and the 80d MA, which historically (pre-Q1) was significant. Keep in mind, only 6 trading days until ER.

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I don't agree. I was reading that german interview that was a translation and musk said he doesn't look at the stock price anymore. He said "oh is it down? I didn't even know, i deleted that app with the stock price from my smart phone". I agree- he doesn't like short sellers. However, before the short sellers were potentially going to make tesla go bankrupt because they couldn't raise capital at a good rate (30 dollars was too low, 92 was much better!). Now, the short sellers are here to stay and they are just a pest. He's not going to try to make another elaborate trap.

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+1 .....but he didn't trap anyone previously. he was very open about the shorts being on the wrong side of things.

 

[mershaw2001]

He has never acted in a manner representative of your 2nd option in the past, in my memory. I do however see him historically saying it exactly as he sees it. When he was annoyed at the shorts, he said outright they are in for a tsunami of hurt. He is no longer saying that. He is being more cautious, which leads me to believe that he is less optimistic about the current relationship between company performance and stock price performance. He could be wrong, I could be wrong, this could all be way off, but I would sooner assume "clippedy-clop is a horse, not a zebra".


Here is the chart as I see it. The only support I see at this point is the bottom of the downtrend channel and the 80d MA, which historically (pre-Q1) was significant. Keep in mind, only 6 trading days until ER.

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+1 .....but he didn't trap anyone previously. he was very open about the shorts being on the wrong side of things.

Hi robot, thank you for the correction, he def didn't trap anyone- he announced his intentions formally.

In regard to the graph that you presented. What number do you see at the bottom of the channel? The one you suggest is support?
I see support at 157 if it currently breaks 162.

 

[RobotGrease]

Hi robot, thank you for the correction, he def didn't trap anyone- he announced his intentions formally.

In regard to the graph that you presented. What number do you see at the bottom of the channel? The one you suggest is support?
I see support at 157 if it currently breaks 162.

The channel I was referring to was the red one, so follow that down for the daily support. It will be at about ~157 on Nov. 5th

 

[Convert2013]

I don't agree. I was reading that german interview that was a translation and musk said he doesn't look at the stock price anymore. He said "oh is it down? I didn't even know, i deleted that app with the stock price from my smart phone". I agree- he doesn't like short sellers. However, before the short sellers were potentially going to make tesla go bankrupt because they couldn't raise capital at a good rate (30 dollars was too low, 92 was much better!). Now, the short sellers are here to stay and they are just a pest. He's not going to try to make another elaborate trap.

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He checks the stock price everyday, app or no app. Come on what CEO does not? That's his PR side talking- regardless of some mistakes he's skill a smart and clever manager. I'm good with either 1 or 2 as I'm long TSLA.

 

[aznt1217]

We can analyze what Elon says all day. When Tesla was at the 190 mark he said that shorts were slightly less crazy to short. That means they are still crazy. This organization is hell bent on getting their mission done and that includes mowing down anyone who gets in their way.

I'm down over 70% on my Nov 200's but for some reason I think it'll be fine and a lot of people will be caught off guard. I'm betting on 5700 cars delivered and significant guidance based on global demand. I believe that Elon doesn't look at share price daily, but he absolutely cares about it because he has targets to hit. He isn't in it for the money for himself he's into the money for Mars and he'll do what he can to get it. I also think he understands the share price appreciation drives model S sales.

 

[Jack6591]

We can analyze what Elon says all day. When Tesla was at the 190 mark he said that shorts were slightly less crazy to short. That means they are still crazy. This organization is hell bent on getting their mission done and that includes mowing down anyone who gets in their way.

I'm down over 70% on my Nov 200's but for some reason I think it'll be fine and a lot of people will be caught off guard. I'm betting on 5700 cars delivered and significant guidance based on global demand. I believe that Elon doesn't look at share price daily, but he absolutely cares about it because he has targets to hit. He isn't in it for the money for himself he's into the money for Mars and he'll do what he can to get it. I also think he understands the share price appreciation drives model S sales.

+1 Well Said.

 

[justthateasy]

The channel I was referring to was the red one, so follow that down for the daily support. It will be at about ~157 on Nov. 5th

In the other thread I made mention that I would be buying back in when TSLA dips in the 150s. To be honest, I never thought we would be seeing these levels again and we had kissed the 150s and 160s goodbye long ago. Boy oh boy was I wrong! :scared:

 

[Cameron]

We can analyze what Elon says all day. When Tesla was at the 190 mark he said that shorts were slightly less crazy to short. That means they are still crazy. This organization is hell bent on getting their mission done and that includes mowing down anyone who gets in their way.

I'm down over 70% on my Nov 200's but for some reason I think it'll be fine and a lot of people will be caught off guard. I'm betting on 5700 cars delivered and significant guidance based on global demand. I believe that Elon doesn't look at share price daily, but he absolutely cares about it because he has targets to hit. He isn't in it for the money for himself he's into the money for Mars and he'll do what he can to get it. I also think he understands the share price appreciation drives model S sales.

Bingo.
Couldn't have said it better myself!

 

[ShortSlaver]

Impossible to know but everything looks down for a week or 2 more here. Shorts are getting quite bold and I wouldn't be shocked to see this guy fall into the 140 range rather quickly.

I'm considering moving back into TSLA for the ER and seeing what happens but it's all based on what happens this next week. If there's a solid drop into the 150-140 range you know it's very heavily shorted (in the 25 million range) and there's decent upside from a great ER.

However, sentiment is king and you can't help but get the feeling that it's tired right now. This bull was crazy. Then again, a lot of the other momentum stocks have been dying so these types of investors might be more than eager to start piling in with a great ER.

 

[aznt1217]

Impossible to know but everything looks down for a week or 2 more here. Shorts are getting quite bold and I wouldn't be shocked to see this guy fall into the 140 range rather quickly.

I'm considering moving back into TSLA for the ER and seeing what happens but it's all based on what happens this next week. If there's a solid drop into the 150-140 range you know it's very heavily shorted (in the 25 million range) and there's decent upside from a great ER.

However, sentiment is king and you can't help but get the feeling that it's tired right now. This bull was crazy. Then again, a lot of the other momentum stocks have been dying so these types of investors might be more than eager to start piling in with a great ER.

Look whose back. Lol. True I think people got tired, but there's still so much information and 50/50 news pieces being released. For example today: CR recommends the Model S, but there was a second fire (silly driver). Then there are positive SA pieces that are accompanied with 2 negative ones. This is looking like another pre Q1 in the making with raised expectations.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Look whose back. Lol. True I think people got tired, but there's still so much information and 50/50 news pieces being released. For example today: CR recommends the Model S, but there was a second fire (silly driver). Then there are positive SA pieces that are accompanied with 2 negative ones. This is looking like another pre Q1 in the making with raised expectations.

Ha, I've been lurking. But honestly haven't been involved with the stock one way or another the last few months. However, I'm loving the negative sentiment, the bold shorts and the resulting lower price coupled with the a new ER on the horizon.

I'm fairly tied up with a few other positions but might dump parts of them this week. If things continue the next few days negatively for TSLA there might be some real discounts and possibly a good push off of ER. There's been great support around 160 but this might be the push that sends into the 150's-140's at which point I'll be forced to get back in and see if the bull has another charge in it. You're right it - it starts to look like April again, which we all remember was the most magical time.

Still not sure, a lot of week left here so lets see what happens. Regardless of if I'm in or not, cheering for those that are long.

However, the entire market is looking sort of tapped out in a lot of ways and maybe just some basic dividend ETF's are in store for awhile - still not sure.