Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[FluxCap]

I'd love to think the stock might get some traction out of this fun article just posted on my favorite Tech haunt, Ars Technica, but sadly not as many investors are as dorky as I am.

Maybe I can dare to dream that Google's stock news ticker will pick up the fact that some of the most popular cars in the world (Toyota Camry, Prius V) were just replaced on the Consumer Reports Recommended list by the Tesla Model S.

OK, never mind, all the sheeple read is Seeking Alpha and we're all doomed. SELL EVERYTHING IT'S ALL A SHAM TESLA MAKES FLAMETHROWERS AAAAH! :tongue:

 

[brianman]

SELL EVERYTHING IT'S ALL A SHAM TESLA MAKES FLAMETHROWERS AAAAH! :tongue:

I think you found a retrofit that might be even more fun than hovercraft. Let me mull it over some more first though.

 

[Papafox]

With this Seeking Alpha Tesla's Path to a Conservative $500 Per Share article released in the wee hours of the morning, with a positive outcome to both fire stories, and with Q3 info coming next week, I see the momentum on Tesla stock ready to turn around and get bullish again.

 

[sub]

I don't think that article will do much good, especially if you read the comments section. I'm no expert but it read as an amateurish article with no credibility. Both car fires long term are a non issue, and to those of us that possess critical thinking skills they are a non issue regardless. The shorts have pounced and it may affect the stock short term but not much.

I'm in Kailua now on vacation, I've counted 5 teslas so far and I haven't seen your Blue one yet. I can't think of a better place to own a model S, solar is huge here also I've noticed.

 

[RationalOptimist]

With this Seeking Alpha Tesla's Path to a Conservative $500 Per Share article released in the wee hours of the morning, with a positive outcome to both fire stories, and with Q3 info coming next week, I see the momentum on Tesla stock ready to turn around and get bullish again.

That whole article is based on a mistranscription of an Elon quote at the last conference call. He's quoted as saying he's confident he can produce a compelling 200-mile range "cog" for $35,000. "cog" is almost certainly just a mistranscription of "car" but the author has interpreted it as COGS, cost of goods sold, and has bizarrely concluded that Elon was promising a massmarket $55k car with COGS at $35k and gross margin of $20k. Half a million annual sales times $20k GM would indeed produce a healthy valuation. But Elon has said that GM on the model E would, if anything, drop below his target 25%. Suspect $7k is a more realistic number to model, not $20k.

 

[AlMc]

Does SA have enough readers that it influences buy/sell/options on TSLA? The stock seems to move almost opposite of the SA sentiments.
Good luck all today and as we move into Q3ER. My plan today is to sell 10% of my position in TSLA to free up some money/take some profit off the table. Then watch TSLA and solars closely over the next couple days/weeks and put this money back in on a downturn. Guess this make me a 10% daytrader/90%long term holder.:frown:

 

[ggr]

That whole article is based on a mistranscription of an Elon quote at the last conference call. He's quoted as saying he's confident he can produce a compelling 200-mile range "cog" for $35,000. "cog" is almost certainly just a mistranscription of "car" but the author has interpreted it as COGS, cost of goods sold, and has bizarrely concluded that Elon was promising a massmarket $55k car with COGS at $35k and gross margin of $20k. Half a million annual sales times $20k GM would indeed produce a healthy valuation. But Elon has said that GM on the model E would, if anything, drop below his target 25%. Suspect $7k is a more realistic number to model, not $20k.

I agree that there's probably a misinterpretation there. However, in a world where Tesla really succeeds and remains constrained by production, not orders, because the car is better than any of its competition, why would Tesla allow the margin to drop?

 

[RationalOptimist]

I agree that there's probably a misinterpretation there. However, in a world where Tesla really succeeds and remains constrained by production, not orders, because the car is better than any of its competition, why would Tesla allow the margin to drop?

In that world, the world of 2013-2015, I agree. But we're We're talking Model E.
1) To compete mass-market, price is more critical, and it's logical to take lower margin to drive sales. No point in launching model E if production constraints are still key issue.
2) And in any case, Elon's long-term goal is to catalyze electrification, not maximize profits.
3) & in that foolish article, it envisioned $20k margin on $55k car = 36% margin.

I speak as a TSLA long. Our case not helped by people being silly. There are much more robust arguments that get you to $1k stock price within 5 years. But this was not one of them!

 

[FluxCap]

THE PAIN

 

[MartinAustin]

THE PAIN

VERY fortunately for me, I sold all my TSLA a couple of weeks ago when it was $184, after having held it since April. Today I am looking to get back in, but finding that point of stability is challenging.

My unscientific projection for ER is that they will impress, for all the reasons we have been projecting for months (surplus Q2 production going to Europe and being reported in Q3, exceeding weekly production targets, increased profit etc.) and the stock will jump.

 

[Bardlebee]

For those who are long TSLA, would this be a good spot to buy more shares? I bought in at an average of 29 dollars and still holding. Wondering if I should add more.

I am a novice at stocks.

 

[FluxCap]

The pain could be your gain.

 

[aznt1217]

At this point I wrote off my Nov 200 Calls. I think they will be in the money by earnings and shorts will have to cover, but I don't want to get my hopes up.

 

[fjm9898]

so if it break the 157 80MA we going back to the 140s or does anyone see any other support levels?

 

[aznt1217]

so if it break the 157 80MA we going back to the 140s or does anyone see any other support levels?

I don't think technicals can apply because it's a rather special earnings week. We'll bounce everywhere with this thing.

 

[AlMc]

so if it break the 157 80MA we going back to the 140s or does anyone see any other support levels?

That is how I read it. I think I have said 'it is good buying opportunity' 5-6 times in the last week. But, 140s good buying point. Accumulating what I can if it gets that low.

 

[hershey101]

Just broke $157.

 

[FluxCap]

BREAKING: My wife just said this when I asked her if she wanted me to sell some stock:

"Others are doing stupid ****. Hold strong."

 

[ZenMan]

so if it break the 157 80MA we going back to the 140s or does anyone see any other support levels?

Also looking for a chartist to plot this.

 

[yngwie_2012]

next support level $152.
Btw, im not buying more till ER