PokerBroker
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Just look at it as a gift to those of us who had been sitting on the sidelines... You guys won't miss the last four months will you? 
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I think an investigation by the government will help. They have to conclude that hitting a trailer hitch at highway speeds and a resulting fire is not the fault of Tesla. Hopefully good news from unbiased officials will set things right with the stock again.
the positive cash flow can come from lots of things who's not related to core business and is not relevant(the company doesn't give details about that).
the 800$ Mill in tesla pocket is from people who bought their shares and from bonds issuing and not from profit they create.
don't get me wrong, i believe tesla can change the world of transportation but as we talking in a short term topic you can't bring assumption that will happen in the future to prove a price worth in present time. paying premium for future growth is fine and natural but when your share price valuing 95% future growth and 5% real value don't be surprised if the share is crashing when you fail to deliver out of the blue expectation.
anyway let's move on...
I think it's pretty straightforward to see that with each additional car manufactured and roaming the streets, the absolute number of possible bad news (like crashes, fires etc) increases proportionally. There's just no way around it, no matter how well-made the cars are. The established car makers know that and use each bad news to fortify their EV negative stance. "See, EV are dangerous! It's too early,.. [blah]". IMO, the $190+ worked as long as there were, let's say, "lab conditions". The fires are not the only problem. Other ones will surface after a while, maybe some firmware update mistake bricks hundreds of cars accidentally etc. Realistically, I see the current TSLA and its bright future at around $60-$70 valuation at this point in time, and not the still crazy high $137.95 .
I think people need to get down to Earth again with their expectations. There's some serious, ugly fighting going on about industry domination, and TSLA is still a truly tiny company in comparison to the old established big shots. TSLA's fate isn't going to be determined by wishful thinking, but by a huge number of external influences. I hope Elon reaches his goal, but it must not be a false hope. Anyway, if price goes below $100, I'll start thinking about getting in ;D .
I think people need to get down to Earth again with their expectations. There's some serious, ugly fighting going on about industry domination, and TSLA is still a truly tiny company in comparison to the old established big shots. TSLA's fate isn't going to be determined by wishful thinking, but by a huge number of external influences. I hope Elon reaches his goal, but it must not be a false hope. Anyway, if price goes below $100, I'll start thinking about getting in ;D .
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I've never understood why people hammer so strongly on the non-GAAP vs GAAP stuff. GAAP basically forces Tesla to not declare the money they get from lease sales (money that actually makes to their accounts to be used for business) until the car is bought back or not in 3 years time. The only way this 50% part returns to 0 (the way it's accounted in GAAP if I understand correctly) is if all the guaranteed Model S's are returned to Tesla and Tesla then just crunches them to old metal instead of reselling. Even if they resell for just 40% of initial purchase price the hit they take is marginal. Also, the expected amount of cars sold in 2016 when first leases start to end is many times higher than right now so the total percentage impact it'd have on Tesla would be negligible in comparison to seasonal sales or what not.
So why insist that Tesla is losing money on GAAP basis when the obvious reason is the delayed lease accounting in a case where the money is not delayed for Tesla, but it's a future risk instead. A risk that if Tesla is still around and producing cars is minuscule and might instead be a source of profit (if Tesla can prop up the cars for cheap and sell for a profit i.e. swap in a new larger battery pack and recycle the old one or what not).
you better hit the deck, you are a missiles target now.
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again you're trying to predict the future, that's why GAAP exist to prevent those sort of colossal mistakes.
when the ceo can't give you a forecast for 2014 you try to predict 2016?
and people expects smart money to flow into tesla based on few years dreams!
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Tell me, do you honestly think that Tesla will take a 100% loss from the delayed lease accounting? I think the GAAP number is more fairytale by bears than the non-GAAP number is by bulls. Offloading the "risk" in full to future and denying any accounting of this money in current time period where it provides excellent measures to expand and grow seems idiotic to me. Then again, so do many accounting rules. But if you are trying to assess a company you cannot blindly take the GAAP number and tout around that Tesla is losing money. They aren't, they are making money even though they grow at a crazy rate as shown by cash flow that increased the total cash and equivalents they have. This is what I'm finding wrong, yes we don't know if they will make 50-150% on that remainder price in 3 years, but right now they are making money even if they have a theoretical obligation in the future that may or may not turn into a real obligation and may or may not be exitable profitably. Right now it looks to me like you are predicting the future in very gray colors.
no i don't think tesla will have 100% loss from the lease accounting and the market don't care what i think.
as i said about the market and what i think, same is for you, the market don't cares what you think.
the difference between the GAAP and non GAAP is not only based on the lease accounting.
non-GAAP to GAAP compensation
R&D Stock-based compensation expense(8,707)
+
SG&A Stock-based compensation expense(9,715)
= 18,422
Net income (Non-GAAP)15,935
at the end of the day 15,935 - 18,422 = losing money
as i said before it's easy to cook the books to fool those who are not accounting profesional or those who don't read between the lines(ask the big banks about that, they are masters in that section)
NigelM
Recovering Member
Housekeeping: Folks, please try not to delete the hyperlinks when you quote someone. Leaving them in place makes your posts much more understandable and avoids members having to search back through prior posts to find the context. If anyone needs help or doesn't know how to do this just PM a moderator and we'll be happy to advise.
Thanks.
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Mod Note: a couple of posts went here - snippiness. It's understandable if there's a few folks around with frayed nerves, but let's stay civil please.
Thanks.
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Mod Note: a couple of posts went here - snippiness. It's understandable if there's a few folks around with frayed nerves, but let's stay civil please.
Not at all! Consider it a "buying opportunity" if you like. ;-) I'm a long-term investor, I don't sweat the weekly fluctuations.Just look at it as a gift to those of us who had been sitting on the sidelines... You guys won't miss the last four months will you?
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Doubled down a little too often? :-( Remember to dollar-cost-average when you're pouring money into a stock over a long time, it makes sure you buy more when it's cheaper and less when it's more expensive.
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I know someone retired who makes a point of maintaining a million dollars in cash (well, bank account). Really. Money after that, can be invested in volatile stocks, without fear of losing essential money...
Some people have called the Model S a rich man's toy. I think it is more accurate to say that TSLA stock is a rich man's toy.
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Waves hand -- yep, I've ridden a few stocks into bankruptcy and zero value. Not my finest investing hour. Of course, I didn't think they were going to go bankrupt until they actually did.
[FONT=&]If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools:
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Rudyard Kipling (written 1895 - published 1910)[/FONT]
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools:
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Rudyard Kipling (written 1895 - published 1910)[/FONT]
Thanks, fango for posting this. Definitely a surprising twist to have the car owner publish a blog post.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I just started a thread based on the description of the accident made by the owner of the Model S. I thought that I was the first to post such a description on TMC.
[To moderator: Feel free to delete my thread]
[To moderator: Feel free to delete my thread]
Last edited:
NigelM
Recovering Member
Raffy, I merged it with the main thread as it had already been quoted there and we keep the incident and the blog discussion together. Thanks.
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