Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[The Blue Owl]

I'm afraid we'll be facing a heavy barrage of negativity from the usual suspects about the > $1B incentive package.

I look forward to a stream of WSJ editorials and panel discussions on Bloomberg/CNBC about how Tesla is a subsidy-dependent company taking advantage of local governments hungry for jobs. How the billionaire Elon Musk played 5 states against each other to their detriment. How poor Nevadans are forced to subsidize a factory whose products they will never be able to afford. How the local government is acting like an investor, picking winners and losers instead of letting the market do its job. How this is the next Solyndra and A123 put together, because demand for electric cars is slowing down and the taxpayers will be left holding the bag. How this is crony capitalism at its worst. All sprinkled, of course, with a strong dose of "Elon Musk admits that the stock is overvalued, again", and "the bubble-bursting is imminent".

Fasten your seat belts, we are entering an area of turbulence. Otherwise known as buying opportunity.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I do not think that buying opportunity will last beyond early am hours. I feel that we'll close between $285 and $290.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I do not think that buying opportunity will last beyond early am hours. I feel that we'll close between $285 and $290.

I am not referring to today only. Remember the DOE loan? That was nothing compared to how this will be attacked.

 

[FluxCap]

I do not think that buying opportunity will last beyond early am hours. I feel that we'll close between $285 and $290.

Agreed. I like to watch the opening bell order totals on TSLA at my broker (TD Ameritrade), and today there was a net 66,000 shares bought at the bell - that's a lot of positivity. I also think we will see $300/share this month.

Some disappointing / mixed jobs numbers came out this morning though so that could weigh on the NASDAQ a bit. We will see how things shake out past the early morning hours!

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

Some posts about GER's restatement were moved to Analyst Reports/Targets

 

[FluxCap]

Barclays' "equalweight" w/ PT $220; must be they heard Elon's opinion about the stock price:wink:

Derek, I just wanted to say thank you for sharing these updates!

 

[chickensevil]

Looks like we are getting a little reprieve with a bounce off 276 and trying to come back. There was a lot of fear here this morning, but seems like a lot of support as well.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think everyone is surprised its only 1 gigafactory for now, but I have this feeling Tesla Motors is learning the art of releasing information (finally) so it can blow away our normal expectations.

Who is everyone? And how could anyone be 'surprised' its only 1 gigafactory right now? Just exactly how does 'everyone' think Tesla is going to put even more on their plate? It wasn't that long ago that 1 gigafactory wasn't even in anyone's mind, except that of Elon and company. It's still true that there's a big contingency who believe 1 gigafactory will never be built, let alone on time, let alone that the demand will be there.

Everyone, whom ever you are, settle down and give Tesla some time to get the ball rolling on 1 gigafactory. Geesh!

 

[aznt1217]

Who is everyone? And how could anyone be 'surprised' its only 1 gigafactory right now? Just exactly how does 'everyone' think Tesla is going to put even more on their plate? It wasn't that long ago that 1 gigafactory wasn't even in anyone's mind, except that of Elon and company. It's still true that there's a big contingency who believe 1 gigafactory will never be built, let alone on time, let alone that the demand will be there.

Everyone, whom ever you are, settle down and give Tesla some time to get the ball rolling on 1 gigafactory. Geesh!

Sorry for being vague, but after I saw the New Mexico interview with the governor she was throwing off the impression that multiple factories will be made.

 

[chickensevil]

Sorry for being vague, but after I saw the New Mexico interview with the governor she was throwing off the impression that multiple factories will be made.

She was indeed throwing that off, but I didn't necessarily take that to mean it would happen within any kind of short term timeframe (I might have been hoping, but not planning on it). We all know at some point they will need another factory... apparently even the NM Gov gets this, and she is also politicking to save face with he people since I am sure the people in all the other states are a little pissed that they didn't get it.

100B economic impact and only one place gets that (for now)... of course you would be upset that your state didn't get that... and who are you going to take that out on other than the people in control of that deal. So if I was a resident of NM I could easily see myself or my neighbors blaming their government for not doing enough to get that deal and therefore deciding to vote them out of office.

So you have to consider both sides of this here. Tesla will certainly build another GF... They will likely build 20 or more around the world when all is said and done... but right now she was probably just doing a lot more damage control than anything.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am not referring to today only. Remember the DOE loan? That was nothing compared to how this will be attacked.

I agree with your previous post. There's going to be a big attack on Tesla in the days, weeks and months to come. It's already being conveniently forgotten the $35M+ that Tesla will put towards education and battery R&D for the Nevada Gigafactory region of their own accord, it's being conveniently forgotten that the incentives are specifically connected to Tesla meeting preset objectives, and it won't be long when the $100B regional and state-wide economic benefits that Tesla will ignite are conveniently forgotten. The Governor clearly stated it's an $80 to $1 ratio in favor of Nevada. Yes, there's a risk, but when the potential of return is 80 to 1, you'd betcha there's going to be some risk involved.

The truth is, this is a win-win for Tesla, Nevada, the USA and the world. Those who think Tesla just got a handout either are low-IQ'd, are blinded by their personal issues with Tesla, Elon Musk, climate change, political stance (pick a personal issue), or are being purposely obtuse.

 

[chickensevil]

Get ready for another drop, the buyers were not able to hold it off and it is well back into oversold territory, We will see if the support is able to come back out in the 276~ range.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sorry for being vague, but after I saw the New Mexico interview with the governor she was throwing off the impression that multiple factories will be made.

I think she's right, just not today or tomorrow. Let's revisit in 6 months after Model X is hitting the streets.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I think it would be better if Elon would refrain from making remarks about the stock price. Taking 5% off with his remarks will not make stock holders very happy.

I know what he says is probably true, but not everything has to be spoken out aloud.

From a technical standpoint: there was a gap between 273 and 275, which still had to be closed, which has now been done. You gotta love technical analysis.

 

[ggies07]

geeez, down $12, talk about Elon manipulating the price.....all those gains over the past couple of days are slowly diminishing.....He says he doesn't care about it, but then more than once comes out and gives an abrupt opinion. Focus on making the damn Gigafactory so we can get our Model 3s!

 

[emupilot]

Get ready for another drop, the buyers were not able to hold it off and it is well back into oversold territory, We will see if the support is able to come back out in the 276~ range.

276 obviously didn't hold for long. What other levels of support are there and how strong are they?

We were due for some consolidation - hopefully that's all it is an we will resume our run upwards.

 

[Renaud]

Get ready for another drop, the buyers were not able to hold it off and it is well back into oversold territory, We will see if the support is able to come back out in the 276~ range.

Yep, it's not nice to look at!
That's not exactly what I was expecting for this morning :crying:: do we have sell on the news or just EM's comment about valuation? Volume is quite high.
Anyone still thinks that we will see a reversal of that trend today?

 

[FluxCap]

Yep, it's not nice to look at!
That's not exactly what I was expecting for this morning :crying:: do we have sell on the news or just EM's comment about valuation? Volume is quite high.
Anyone still thinks that we will see a reversal of that trend today?

Anything's possible -- yesterday people (including me) were wishing we bought more in the 270's. Depends on when those buyers decide to jump in.

 

[LonghornDub]

The initial gap down was probably a function of Elon's comments, but the slide over the past 30-45 minutes mayhave a lot more to do with the overall market than anything TSLA-specific. The RUT has gone from in the green to -.60% in the red very quickly, coinciding almost exactly with TSLA's slide.

TSLA has some days where it bucks the market trend, but no stock can do that every day.

(Unfortunately, this doesn't mean conversely that TSLA will necessarily bounce back when the full market does, although it's probably more likely than not.)

 

[jhm]

Wow, this is an excellent time to buy. We have new information on the Gigafactory which have excellent implications. (See my post in the Gigafactory thread.) And the shorts are selling at a discount. Once the market figures out where the extra $2B for the Gigafactory will come from, the price will soar to unexpected heights. Shorts do not see what's coming. So buy now.

I just bought another Jan 16 call.

Oh, yeah, over 20 years the Sparks plant will produce 1000 GWh of battery packs. So the $1.25B tax incentive is only worth $1.25 per kWh. That is a trivial amount of savings compared to other cost reductions. If people want to get their political panties in a wad, let them. It is by no means critical to Tesla's success or profitability.