Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[AlMc]

I am still holding on to my puts, I plan on selling the puts if TSLA hits $235, $230 & the last one at $225, then decide what to do with the covered call.

I am bearish, in 30 years I have never sat on so much cash.

I too am sitting on a much larger cash position than I have in years. I have 'dipped my toes' into short term calls recently only to get a bit burned. I think we are all holding our collective breaths trying to decide if we get to the 200dMA before ER/CC or after or at all. The silence out of TM since EM remarked about the stock price is deafening. Will they announce AWD S, info about all the DA, model X beta event
before, during or after ER/CC???

 

[kenliles]

I too am sitting on a much larger cash position than I have in years. I have 'dipped my toes' into short term calls recently only to get a bit burned. I think we are all holding our collective breaths trying to decide if we get to the 200dMA before ER/CC or after or at all. The silence out of TM since EM remarked about the stock price is deafening. Will they announce AWD S, info about all the DA, model X beta event
before, during or after ER/CC???

my chart using streetsmart, shows the simple moving avg 200 day at $243;
is there another reference calculation that produces the lower number?

 

[MartinAustin]

I believe it was one year ago today that the stock was around its all-time high of $194 and the first car caught on fire after driving over that trailer hitch.

Before that I was never worried about the stock rising... the fires were like Adam biting into the apple.

Since then I've been a lot more worried about TSLA and its reliance on news... even though it is a lot higher today than it was back then

TSLA is definitely responsive to news, and there just hasn't been any news since the Gigafactory law bill, which I believe was kinda priced in.

Recently Elon said something like "we have significant product news coming soon" and I would not be surprised if this helps the stock. Model X and Roadster pack upgrade are the guaranteed items, 110KWh battery and AWD Model S are waiting in the wings. The next ER is a month away perhaps.

 

[Lump]

Elon tweets had an impact when the market cap was much smaller at $30B AWD S, DA, Model X beta & reveal are known & priced in, we have 2015 production guidance so something completely unexpected like a larger battery might have a meaningful spike in the stock everyone is hoping for.

 

[Curt Renz]

my chart using streetsmart, shows the simple moving avg 200 day at $243;
is there another reference calculation that produces the lower number?

I believe you are looking at the SMA for the last 200 minutes. ThinkOrSwim shows the TSLA 200-day SMA at 215.3.

- - - Updated - - -

Elon tweets had an impact when the market cap was much smaller at $30B AWD S, DA, Model X beta & reveal are known & priced in, we have 2015 production guidance so something completely unexpected like a larger battery might have a meaningful spike in the stock everyone is hoping for.

Those unconfirmed matters were supposedly priced in when shares were $50 higher. Confirmation could restore that price.

 

[kenliles]

I believe you are looking at the SMA for the last 200 minutes. ThinkOrSwim shows the TSLA 200-day SMA at 215.3.

doh- ;
had the daily chart running- yearly shows 200 day at 215 confirmed- thanks

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Smells like profit taking and window dressing and end of quarter rebalancing to me.

 

[Curt Renz]

Smells like profit taking and window dressing and end of quarter rebalancing to me.

Yes, indeed. Tesla Motors, Ford and General Motors shares have had a bad September. Some money managers don't want them to be seen by clients in the snapshot taken of their portfolios as the month ends today. That effect may have climaxed at the top of this hour. Bargain hunters now appear to be stepping up to the plate. Tomorrow there may be more shopping as many money managers receive new month cash to put to work.

 

[aznt1217]

That's right! I forgot about window dressing. I was too focused on the Quarter end push. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Bunky]

Yes, indeed. Tesla Motors, Ford and General Motors shares have had a bad September. Some money managers don't want them to be seen by clients in the snapshot taken of their portfolios as the month ends today. That effect may have climaxed at the top of this hour. Bargain hunters now appear to be stepping up to the plate. Tomorrow there may be more shopping as many money managers receive new month cash to put to work.

Thanks for the insight on the institutional though process Curt. To what extent is this a technical pull back? The chart posted a few pages back (#8025) seemed to show a pretty uniform pattern of ~3 month rally followed by ~2 month consolidation before bouncing off the 200 DMA. That could put us around 225 in a few weeks or so before the next uptrend? Obviously all speculation and I am no chartist. Staying long and possible buying the dip in a couple more weeks.

 

[Johan]

Thanks for the insight on the institutional though process Curt. To what extent is this a technical pull back? The chart posted a few pages back seemed to show a pretty uniform pattern of ~3 month rally followed by ~2 month consolidation before bouncing off the 200 DMA. That could put us around 225 in a few weeks or so before the next uptrend? Obviously all speculation and I am no chartist. Staying long and possible buying the dip in a couple more weeks.

I believe what you are thinking would be the case were it not for a quite high probability of some significant news in the near future. It's in the tea leaves: Tomorrow is Oct 1st - start of 4th quarter, Elon has talket mysteriously about all cards not having been shown, there could be a Model X surprise announcement, the new safety features that we all here on TMC now know of and "take for granted" are not known to the wider public - they are actually putting them in cars being built and delivered without telling the new owners about them, this screams secrecy for now to me! In my mind they might be announcing a plan for much more advanced active safety features than lane departure warning, speed sign reading and ACC in the works, and perhaps with an ambitious time frame for implementation. Remeber in Elon's own words all these active safety features will be the building blocks for more and more autonomous driving - who knows what the new hardware in the new cars really is capable of? Sure, it can read speed signs and warn for lane departure. What if way more advanced autonomous features are now just software updates away?!?

 

[TSLAopt]

I see ths downward move as sort of a "weak-long squeeze", it's just unfortunate that the strongest of the weak longs will be defined by those who sell at the bottom just before we come back up. Kind of like in poker how the person who comes in 2nd place loses the most vs. those who folded pre-flop.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

In the past few months, institutional ownership has declined from around 75% to 55%.

How long do institutions that sold to rebalance their holdings or to buy into a $200 Billion BABA usually wait to buy back once the new quarter begins?

I guess the question becomes, did analyst comments cause Tesla to drop or did the stock drop because the analysts covering Tesla were hinting to investors that their firm or clients were trimming or about to trim their positions?

 

[Papafox]

I see ths downward move as sort of a "weak-long squeeze", it's just unfortunate that the strongest of the weak longs will be defined by those who sell at the bottom just before we come back up. Kind of like in poker how the person who comes in 2nd place loses the most vs. those who folded pre-flop.

TSLAopt, that's a great analogy. Yes, the last people to sell right before Tesla starts heading to the stars are going to be one sorry group of investor.

 

[DaveT]

In the past few months, institutional ownership has declined from around 75% to 55%.

Where are you getting those numbers?

 

[RobStark]

Where are you getting those numbers?

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com


A few months ago I checked and it was 66%

 

[32no]

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com


A few months ago I checked and it was 66%

That data is 3 months old, it's from the end of last quarter, 6/30.

 

[jhm]

It's nice to see that the Leaf will be getting some direct competition from Kia's Soul EV. It will have slightly more range at 94 miles (I know), roomier cabin space, and some say more style. Priced at $36k, it wll give Leaf and even Prius shoppers something to consider. Kia aims to offer a 200 mile version by 2017, in time to hold its own with the Model 3.

My hope is that Kia sells a ton of these and gains market share in the US and elsewhere. This is the kind of competition that will get other automakers to take EVs seriously and cultivate a buying segment ready to upgrade to a Tesla grade EV.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Andrea James reiterates PT $325

Finally a statement from Daugherty.
Andrea thinks it's possible that TM misses the anticipated Q3 production units. However, overall she remains very optimistic and thinks that the 2K units/week end 2015, may be even twice that number.

 

[chickensevil]

I know we are down pre-market but we have to pretty good pieces of news that should put us into the green on the market open.

First from an overall market perspective: Private Payrolls in U.S. Increased by 213,000 in September - Bloomberg

The gains in employment last month followed a revised 202,000 increase in August, according to the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a September advance of 205,000.

Seems like a minor beat on payroll numbers for new jobs which is pretty positive for the market!

And for the automotive sector, it was stated I think yesterday that September sales were going to be up, but they are now reporting an industry wide increase by 10%:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/01/autos-sales-chrysler-idUSL2N0RW0MJ20141001

No mention of Tesla (probably too small to matter, and we don't report our sales like the other companies do) but it does help give perspective on the automarket on the whole... again the notion that a rising tide lifts all boats, right?

Chrysler Group LLC on Wednesday reported its third straight month of double-digit gains in the U.S. market, selling 19 percent more vehicles in September than a year ago...

[snip]

General Motors Co up 19 percent; Ford Motor Co down 2 percent; Toyota Motor Corp up 7 percent; Honda Motor Co up 15 percent; Nissan Motor Co up 13 percent; and sister companies Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp up 7 percent.