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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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I agree with you, I don't see a conspiracy either. If you look at the trajectory of the NASDAQ today, it looks almost exactly the same as TSLA's.

NASDAQ:
View attachment 64186

TSLA:
View attachment 64187

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Good analysis with the chart comparing TSLA to the Nasdaq. What this says to me is that there was some institution selling by way of good old fashioned VWAP orders from the start of the trading day up to the close because:

a)large institutions often use Volume Weighted Average Price orders to buy or sell a large position in a given day (sometimes it can be over two days or sometimes it can just be for a certain specified time of day, TWAP instead of VWAP)

b)TSLA tracked the nasdaq but with a downward slant obviously since TSLA ended up down and the nasdaq ended the day up

c)if someone was really trying to manipulate the market the chart would not look like this and why would premarket have started at a high point? Pre-market is the easiest time to manipulate a stock price due to the lack of volume (look up 'spoofing'). It didn't start its trek downwards premarket because the institutional VWAP sell order doesn't go into effect until the primary exchange opens at 9:30 and that is when there was an initial load of heavy selling by the VWAP order(s) and then again at the end of the day heavy selling again not the close by way of the same institutional VWAP order(s)


We will have to see what happens next week if the institutional selling continues or perhaps institutional buyers step back in with sme VWAP buy orders, it's anyone's guess short term. This is how the market works.
 
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Totally agree. If it was priced for perfection it would have tanked following the latest earnings which were far from perfect. Holding and might pick up more. Regretted not adding at 220.

Not to mention the Model X delay. I believe that generally, the market in aggregate still sees risk/uncertainty where Model X, Gigafactory, and Model 3 are concerned.

As the uncertainty decreases, share price will rise, and I think TSLA therefore has lots of room to run.
 
What a disappointing week!

With some hindsight, we've had:

-A nice bounce on the 200 dma, even though the tweet from EM did help a lot. But then it was in response to some very BS...Without that BS of september deliveries, there was no need for Tweet.
-We've had a very nice post ER run, when not everyone was so pleased with ER, we almost reach 260. We've been as low, intraday, as 218 (not sure the exact figure...) That's close to a 20% rise in a short term. Not bad.
-After such a rise, isn't a correction healthy? I think loosing a few percent was to be excpected. I blame myself for not being cautious enough there.

Last weeks "bad" or "controversial" news:

-CR article: I don't think that created such a mess. I was a bit scared though, but eventually I think it's not the root of the small debacle of this week. I know that CR corrected the article once or twice at least, and that must have been done in coordination with Tesl's PR to capture the correct information. No Musk intervention. It's not an analyst writing non-sense, it's just fair and honest journalism and it contained facts. I must say that I was a bit mad at the article initially, but then thank-you to those who explained how it made sense and was nothing to worry about.
-Seeking-Alpha: It's all noise and I'm sure now it has no effect at all. All those from this board answering to the total non-sense and dramatic hypothesis of some of the writers, I have to say, you have patience :) I think we should just let them in their negative spin. True as well that once in a while some people there bring valid points, but it's nothing compared to the BS brought (almost daily) by guys like LT, cpar and those alike. BS tainted with bad faith.
-MS report: I think it just magnified the small correction that we were due for after 20% rise without exceptional news. EM rightfully corrected the mis-information spreade. I still don't know or understand what lies behind such a strange note and its logic....

On the TA side, since I have no clue how it works, cannot say, if anyone can give a hint where we stand, you're welcome :confused:
Are we at the bottom of a channel? Are we heading back to the 200 dma for a possible rebound? Are we finding support at 240 because it's a round number and losing 7% in a week deserves a little rebound at least? Actually I was hoping for a small recovery in the last hour on friday and as well in AH...

I genuinely think there is upside and room for good surprises...

Good week-end everyone!
 
Not to mention the Model X delay. I believe that generally, the market in aggregate still sees risk/uncertainty where Model X, Gigafactory, and Model 3 are concerned.

As the uncertainty decreases, share price will rise, and I think TSLA therefore has lots of room to run.

Anticitizen 13.7 has it right. The continuing string of delays in Model X has disheartened some investors. We know it is coming because Elon says it is, complete with falcon doors. When the Beta Model X is revealed and a production timeline is given, the stock with take off.

Previously, TSLA price was held back by fear of the 3Q ER. Once the ER took place, the cat got rid of the hairball and the stock surged upward, perhaps too aggressively for the amount of uncertainty of the moment. A correction to that surge has taken place. Remember that much of this correction was caused by Adam Jonas's incorrect assumptions and statements about Model X's Falcon doors. Thus, we may see a rebound from the correction.

The biggest concern right now is on Tesla's ability to stay on schedule with its plan. Investors have assumed that delays in Model X indicate that we'll see delays in Model 3 as well, which is likely incorrect. Model 3 will be a simpler car with technologies that have already been developed. I predict Model 3 coming out ahead of schedule, not late. In fact, Tesla has given us indications that Model 3 could actually enter production in 2016, not 2017. Remember that the gigafactory construction is going strong and that an early completion of usable portions of the gigafactory will likely lead to early introduction of Model 3.

Delays in ramping up after the 3Q ER resulted in some investor concerns. This week we heard that production is now 1,000 cars/week and that the number could be raised substantantially with some tweaking. I strongly suspect we'll see that tweaking take place.

A huge number of analysts are keeping their price targets of over $300/share. Once the Model X is released and concerns ease about production numbers, we'll be on our way to the land of $300 plus. I'm betting on it.
 
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Tesla recently announced that the Montreal sales / service center will officially open on December 5th. It is purportedly the largest in north america (rather ironic it is in the country with the slowest supercharger growth since 2012 :)cursing:), but I digress).

In the e-mail invite I received they mention to expect "other surprises".

I am not holding my breath, but a Model X Beta reveal would be very cool, for owners and investors alike.
 
BMW's stock is up more than 3% on news of talks between BMW and Tesla, as referenced in the posts above.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-says-talks-bmw-over-152243111.html
I suspect these talks could positively affect Tesla's stock price on Monday. Ultimately, I suspect BMW will be the first competitor to join Tesla's supercharger network, and once that happens others will follow.
 
BMW's stock is up more than 3% on news of talks between BMW and Tesla, as referenced in the posts above.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-says-talks-bmw-over-152243111.html
I suspect these talks could positively affect Tesla's stock price on Monday. Ultimately, I suspect BMW will be the first competitor to join Tesla's supercharger network, and once that happens others will follow.

Could also be helped with Asian markets being up as well: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-asia-cheered-china-232201754.html
 
It's 2:00am in Frankfurt, are you sure that isn't Friday's close?

Yes, the 3% climb of BMW was on Friday's trading. Is anyone aware of any big stories that could yield such a rise if not for the Tesla talk? In any event, we can see what happens Monday morning in Frankfurt and gauge from there. I would look at TSLA's Monday morning performance in Frankfurt, as well.

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Studying BMW's stock price over the past few months, it has been quite volatile, and so the rise could be unrelated to the article. I also don't see earlier mentions of the talks between BMW and TSLA. Backing off a bit on my enthusiasm, but still very curious to see what happens to BMW and TSLA on the Frankfurt exchange Monday morning.
 
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Tesla says in talks with BMW over car batteries, parts - Yahoo Finance
Musk says Tesla expects to have a battery production facility in Germany in 5 to 6 years. For that sort ort timeline we should have a more difinitive announcement within 24 months. The location is suggestive that this gigafactory may be a joint venture with BMW or some other German automaker.

If these "alliance" talks with BMW moves BMW stock in a positive direction, this could suggest that BMW investors see the value of working with Tesla and may be ready to embrace a decisive move into the EV market. Currently the i3 represents 5% of BMWs unit sales. The main thing they need to move this to 20% or more is to lock in massive battery supplies. So a Gigafactory JV with Tesla and Panasonic would be a solid step in securing BMW's share of the EV market.

I would also like to see Tesla get access to BMW's carbon fiber technology. Musk seems understaded, calling it "interesting" and "relatively cost efficient", but I suspect there is more to this. It's definitely worth exploring and may deliver other advanges beyond just being cost effective. So Tesla may have something in carbon fiber to gain in an alliance, but Musk is not going to tip his hand just yet.
 
Tesla says in talks with BMW over car batteries, parts - Yahoo Finance
Musk says Tesla expects to have a battery production facility in Germany in 5 to 6 years. For that sort ort timeline we should have a more difinitive announcement within 24 months. The location is suggestive that this gigafactory may be a joint venture with BMW or some other German automaker.

If these "alliance" talks with BMW moves BMW stock in a positive direction, this could suggest that BMW investors see the value of working with Tesla and may be ready to embrace a decisive move into the EV market. Currently the i3 represents 5% of BMWs unit sales. The main thing they need to move this to 20% or more is to lock in massive battery supplies. So a Gigafactory JV with Tesla and Panasonic would be a solid step in securing BMW's share of the EV market.

I would also like to see Tesla get access to BMW's carbon fiber technology. Musk seems understaded, calling it "interesting" and "relatively cost efficient", but I suspect there is more to this. It's definitely worth exploring and may deliver other advanges beyond just being cost effective. So Tesla may have something in carbon fiber to gain in an alliance, but Musk is not going to tip his hand just yet.
although only premarket, it would appear BMW investors more cheered by report than tsla investors. go figure. it does say alot about the value of the name tesla
 
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