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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Yeah if we do gap. This will actually form a strong candlestick reversal pattern called inverse island gap/island reversal. So bullish from here on.

*edit Gap and fizzled out. Move along people.

The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic US is blanketed in white powder, and volume is very low so far. So in the absence of much else happening, it appears crude oil took a morning dip and we followed it.
 
Just wanted to share a chart - notice low RSI in oversold territory, MACD nearing cross on upwards momentum, last two highest volume days on very green days, wedge forming, upside down H&S, etc...

In other words, I'm a buyer.

Tesla Chart.png
 
How well did the charts predict the tumultuous last couple of months? [not a loaded question]

Depends on what you are looking for. The RSI correctly set the tone for a reversal while the chart patterns also confirmed it. (inverse head and shoulder or W as I call it)
However, the death cross failed as it predicts continued downward spiral. We are still part of the 3 month down channel.
The. you got that major funky price at 206.44 that seems to be a major technical level as every time we almost touch it, them prices gaps up or down.
 
I'm hopeful that many buyers will option up to an 85D, which would most likely increase margins for Tesla. That should help Q1 and Q2 along while we wait for Model X.
Personally, I did not think that the D option on the standard 85 adds enough performance or range enhancement to merit the $5000. 0-60 in 5.2s for 85D vs. 5.4s for 85. Same HP, slight improvement in range. If you truly need AWD, it would be worth it, but I did not find it compelling on any other attribute. It's too bad it did not come with a modest performance gain to put it midway between the 85 and P85D. I do hope other buyers will be more enthusiatic about the D option than I was. Maybe Tesla will find some way to squeeze a little more performance or range through software enhancements. Anyway, I'm excited to get my standard 85 right at the end of Q1.
 
Initially it was a $4K option. Also at the time, the range increase was supposed to be significant, like 290 vs 265 or something. I guess that remains to be seen what sort of improvements can be yielded.

On top of that, a plus or a minus depending on your perspective, since the S85D motors are a newer design, there is a chance there are improvements over the standard S85 motor for efficiency/performance/longevity.

Plus, you get a D on the back.
 
Personally, I did not think that the D option on the standard 85 adds enough performance or range enhancement to merit the $5000. 0-60 in 5.2s for 85D vs. 5.4s for 85. Same HP, slight improvement in range. If you truly need AWD, it would be worth it, but I did not find it compelling on any other attribute. It's too bad it did not come with a modest performance gain to put it midway between the 85 and P85D. I do hope other buyers will be more enthusiatic about the D option than I was. Maybe Tesla will find some way to squeeze a little more performance or range through software enhancements. Anyway, I'm excited to get my standard 85 right at the end of Q1.

I'm not sure I would have ordered it for $5k, but it was $4k when I ordered. One thing that helped push me over the edge was the automated closing charge port. I know it's silly but I was always forgetting to close it on my first vehicle. Though I think that will eventually end up on all the vehicles, but it isn't right now. I wasn't really looking for performance from it. The 0.2 seconds better 0-60 time doesn't matter to me. The range was attractive but again not the main driver for me. Really the main driver is that AWD is just safer. You really have to be careful with the S85 about not hitting the accelerator when turning. The car tends to go wherever it's pointed when you step on it. The S85 is a great car, but the grip from AWD should really level it up a bit.

- - - Updated - - -

Initially it was a $4K option. Also at the time, the range increase was supposed to be significant, like 290 vs 265 or something. I guess that remains to be seen what sort of improvements can be yielded.

It's still 290 at 65mph. They've just started reporting the range based on the EPA test methods which is 270. See the graphs on the blog here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/driving-range-model-s-family
 
Yeah, it may have been that I was looking into it a little latter. At first it was $4000 and adding about 30 miles range. That seemed like a very better deal, but in January that was revised to $5000 and 5 more miles range. So maybe it just seemed a little anticlimatic to me. Perhaps if we get another snowpocalypse here in Atlanta, I may regret it. Today the public schools closed for fear of bad whether, but the roads were perfectly clear. So the city is overcompensating for screwing it up last year.
 
hadn't seen this posted here yet,

Roadster Road Trip Update: San Jose to Los Angeles on a Single Charge | Tesla Motors

Tesla Roadster 3.0 road trip manages 340 miles on single charge

oops... I see Tesla blog was out 2/13, I assume this has been posted before and I just missed it.
The short term significance may be that this demonstrates what Tesla may do with the Model 3. 340 miles plus 20 to spare on a 70 kWh pack shows that Tesla is capable of 5 mi/kWh. If they reach 400 miles, that's 5.7 mi/kWh! Can they translate this to the Model 3 design and get 230 mile range on 40kWh starting at $35k, 315 miles on 55 kWh at $45k and 400 miles on 70kWh at $55k? That would be an awesome line up. I don't think the auto industry sees this coming, but Tesla is proving that it is technically feasible.
 
The short term significance may be that this demonstrates what Tesla may do with the Model 3. 340 miles plus 20 to spare on a 70 kWh pack shows that Tesla is capable of 5 mi/kWh. If they reach 400 miles, that's 5.7 mi/kWh! Can they translate this to the Model 3 design and get 230 mile range on 40kWh starting at $35k, 315 miles on 55 kWh at $45k and 400 miles on 70kWh at $55k? That would be an awesome line up. I don't think the auto industry sees this coming, but Tesla is proving that it is technically feasible.
Since the auto industry, and analysts, don't see it coming that is why it probably will not have an impact on the short term price of TSLA. Agree that if you hypothesis is correct about the mi/kWh for Gen3 that will have a significant impact when that comes to fruition several months ( a year or two?) from now.
 
Since the auto industry, and analysts, don't see it coming that is why it probably will not have an impact on the short term price of TSLA. Agree that if you hypothesis is correct about the mi/kWh for Gen3 that will have a significant impact when that comes to fruition several months ( a year or two?) from now.

I do think that any alert investor or analyst can see the implication of this. Many of us have been assuming that the base model would have at least 50 kWh and get just barely 200 miles range, but the assumption that the Model 3 would be limited to about 4 mi/kWh is to be rejected. I do expect some of our more enthusiastic analysts to make this point, maybe once the Roadster 3.0 demonstrates a 400 range.
 
The short term significance may be that this demonstrates what Tesla may do with the Model 3. 340 miles plus 20 to spare on a 70 kWh pack shows that Tesla is capable of 5 mi/kWh. If they reach 400 miles, that's 5.7 mi/kWh! Can they translate this to the Model 3 design and get 230 mile range on 40kWh starting at $35k, 315 miles on 55 kWh at $45k and 400 miles on 70kWh at $55k? That would be an awesome line up. I don't think the auto industry sees this coming, but Tesla is proving that it is technically feasible.

Why such a dramatic increase from the 40 to 55 to 70 kWh models? I would think that if a person wanted the exact same features/options on a 3 and just wanted the maximum range, the price difference would not be THAT significant. Comparing the difference in the S between the 60 and 85 shows a price increase of $400 per kWh ($80k - $70k = $10,000/85-60 = $400). So, with the additional 15 kWH, that would seem to indicate a $6000 increase. However, since the 3 won't come out until the GF is online, the price of batteries should be at least 30% cheaper. So, if we use $280 (70% of $400) instead of $400, that would seem to indicate a price difference of $4200 for each of the models (or battery options). I can't imagine Tesla charging that much of a premium just to acquire more range. If so, they will price the car right out of a lot of buyer's budgets.
 
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