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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Someone also mentioned that they already have this upgrade through ranger and they are seeing lower consumption.

Where? I've only seen one report of a new firmware version and it was a new delivery that came with 6.1 (2.2.180) and didn't say anything about lower consumption. I have seen someone saying service installed 6.1 (2.2.179) and they are seeing lower consumption. However, that .179 version has been out for two or three weeks and there hasn't been a mass of people saying they're getting lower range. So unless you can link to some other report I haven't seen any sign of this software the improves range.
 
Where? I've only seen one report of a new firmware version and it was a new delivery that came with 6.1 (2.2.180) and didn't say anything about lower consumption. I have seen someone saying service installed 6.1 (2.2.179) and they are seeing lower consumption. However, that .179 version has been out for two or three weeks and there hasn't been a mass of people saying they're getting lower range. So unless you can link to some other report I haven't seen any sign of this software the improves range.

Here: Elon - Page 40
 
Where? I've only seen one report of a new firmware version and it was a new delivery that came with 6.1 (2.2.180) and didn't say anything about lower consumption. I have seen someone saying service installed 6.1 (2.2.179) and they are seeing lower consumption. However, that .179 version has been out for two or three weeks and there hasn't been a mass of people saying they're getting lower range. So unless you can link to some other report I haven't seen any sign of this software the improves range.

Hmm..someone just posted on the TM forum that they saw 211 Wh/mile @55mph (or ~400 mile range) in a P85D with 6.1 (2.2.180). May be there was slight downhill that the poster did not realize, but potentially interesting.:rolleyes:

P85D Range Test. whats wrong with my Tesla getting 211 Wh/m 2.2179 400 miles on a charge? What is going on? | Forums | Tesla Motors
 

Well that's the .179 poster that I mentioned already.

Hmm..someone just posted on the TM forum that they saw 211 Wh/mile @55mph (or ~400 mile range) in a P85D with 6.1 (2.2.180). May be there was slight downhill that the poster did not realize, but potentially interesting.:rolleyes:

P85D Range Test. whats wrong with my Tesla getting 211 Wh/m 2.2179 400 miles on a charge? What is going on? | Forums | Tesla Motors

That poster says .179.

.179 has been out since February 28th (first report of it showing up is here). So I'm just not buying that it's a hidden range upgrade that people are just now noticing. The P85D folks have been doing fairly extensive tests on every firmware update to see how it improves range. Including testing against P85s. It would have been noticed.
 
Another 'whopper' from Trip Chowdry; but a broken clock is correct twice per day. This idea of a metal-air range extender has been around for a couple of years, so this is not a zero possibility for the announcement on Thursday. In my mind it would end range anxiety if these packs were self changeable and sold at common retailers. If true, then I think the stock soars.

"Tesla hybrid battery pack said to extend range by 40% and increase battery life by 30%.


Global Equities Research reports that Tesla Motors may be building a new hybrid battery pack. Based on the filed Patents 20130181511 and 20130187591, analyst Tom Chowdry notes that these patents relate to “Electric Vehicle Extended Range Hybrid Battery Pack System” and have Metal-Air Battery Pack and Non-Metal Air Battery Pack components. By combining a standard, lithium-ion battery with a metal-air battery where oxygen is used as an electrode, we can potentially see 400+ miles of range in future versions of the Model S, Model X."

Tesla Hybrid Battery Pack to Extend Range by 40% - TESLARATI.com

I hope this is the one.
 
I'll take bets on Thursday's announcement being about software and not new hardware.

(Hmm, reminder to self: I still need to collect on the last several bets I won.)

I agree that there will be a OTA software update, however this does not preclude new hardware. In the past, Tesla has frequently introduced new hardware such as the autopilot hardware, supercharger hardware etc into all cars prior to announcing the change. Also, no reason why the new hardware cannot be an upgrade to older cars, thereby ensuring the entire fleet is affected.

So here is my wild speculation:


The OTA will activate new hardware in recent cars: a METAL-AIR BATTERY extender. Aluminium–air batteries have one of the highest energy densities of all batteries: ~1.3kwh/kg (projected ~2kwh/kg). At these energy densities, a 20kg battery will add ~26-40kwh for added range of ~80-125 miles (@320wh/mile) and a 30kg battery will add ~39-60kwh for added range of ~120-190 miles (@320wh/mile).


If the metal-air extender is portable and easily exchangeable by the owner, it can be sold virtually anywhere, including horror of horrors, 'gas stations'. This would unquestionably eliminate range anxiety.


This or something very similar is the only way to truly eliminate range anxiety. IMHO, a simple software change that tells me where I can charge at 17mph (level II chargers) will be a huge disappointment and not eliminate range anxiety. But I am not willing to bet on this
:redface:
 
Elon tweet alert! Pack swap is up and running between SF and LA! "...but that's not what I meant by addressing Range Anxiety"

He's back on twitter, folks. I wonder if he'll keep it up all week leading up to Thursday. If so, we could see the rise we've talked about. The real question will be if the announcement's strong enough to hold it up. (If so my limit buy at $177 will never trigger!)

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter

Screen Shot 2015-03-16 at 10.54.46 PM.png
 
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I have not read through all the posts in the X-thread, but has someone already noticed that the 100.000 production Tesla might very well be the first production Model-X.

looking at the number of Model-S produced, and the Q1 and Q2 forecast, early summer will be about the time for Model-S production number 97.600 (lets not forget the 2.400 Produced roadsters). Would make a pretty spectecular unveil ! (And an epic nightmare for those still short then).
 
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I have not read through all the posts in the X-thread, but has someone already noticed that the 100.0000 production Tesla might very well be the first production Model-X.

looking at the number of Model-S produced, and the Q1 and Q2 forecast, early summer will be about the time for Model-S production number 97.600 (lets not forget the 2.400 Produced roadsters). Would make a pretty spectecular unveil ! (And an epic nightmare for those still short then).

Great point.
Just imagine the headlines all around the press:
"Tesla Motors selling 100.000th car, delivering their first brand new Model X SUV"
 
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