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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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NigelM
Recovering Member
I don't, I think there's a lot of folks who have themselves too pumped up. I'll be happy to be wrong though.
Agreed. I'm sitting still here; if the stock rockets up my holdings gain value, if the stock fizzles then it's a new opportunity.
Just a reminder as to where to go on the Tesla website to find the press release when it is actually released, and a link to the press conference call, it will be here Introduction | Tesla Motors
jhm
Well-Known Member
Sure, SpaceX rockets lift off, and then they land back where they they started.
I would not trust a bear on this. It is too easily a set up.
I agree with BOTH of you. The stock wants to take off but I am not sure that a firmware update alone does that. IF, EM is EM and can't resist dropping a bombshell that is unrelated to the firmware then we could have an NAIAS 2014 all over again. This is a BIG IF.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Yeah. I don't expect that today's call is going to be what investors are waiting for. I'm going to get myself positioned defensively here in a min.
Much of that due to yesterday's FOMC statement, strong macro and positive Tesla news unrelated to Tweet. Remove that and Tesla has only moved 3-4% on the Tweet.
NigelM
Recovering Member
sundaymorning
Active Member
I don't think it will be the crazy announcement that some expect but I believe we are priced nicely for it. It's basically the range we've been floating at with potential to really bump up with what's coming... (ramp + X). It looks like they are also getting comfy with the paint shop as they are releasing new colors and to some... introducing the option for some custom colors (again) with little impact to mass production.
doggusfluffy
Closed
I am kind of thinking he'll also announce the auto pilot firmware today...for the cars that have the sensors. Just a WAG though.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I don't think we need a spectacular announcement, just some other info than the software update to sustain above $200 and force a handful of shorts covering as we prepare for the next leg up. But longs are pretty patient, they can handle a little pullback to buy more.
IMO range anxiety isn't just about the total range of the car, it's about being able to recharge quickly no matter where you are. You can currently charge pretty quickly with superchargers, but those aren't available in nearly as many places as needed to deal with range anxiety. So I'm not sure what type of firmware update would solve this problem aside from what was already mentioned, better maps + partnerships, etc. But I feel like there has to be more to it.
Also, I believe Elon mentioned one of the biggest concerns in China was range so I wonder if this announcement has anything to do with that. Overall, I"m fairly bullish and am hoping for a strong move.
Also, I believe Elon mentioned one of the biggest concerns in China was range so I wonder if this announcement has anything to do with that. Overall, I"m fairly bullish and am hoping for a strong move.
I understand the words of caution that if the announcement is strictly about NAV improvements, the shares are unlikely to go up, and may well have at least very near term sharp downward move. I suspect Elon is aware of this too. While I believe he is sincere about wanting long-term fundamentals move the stock rather than tactical comments from himself, I sense he's frustrated with the distorted coverage we've all observed. That said, I think he's aware that a NAV only announcement that can be spun by the media as a disappointment, and an attempt to deflect attention from "the real issue, demand problems" (a narrative already spun this week), would not only hurt TSLA, but do some damage to the perception of Tesla and Elon himself.
All that said, if the origin of the call is just NAV, I think at this point Elon will be aware to either 1) verbally slice up much recent FUD, 2) drop some new very strong fundamental information (I vote for significant positive revision in battery cost reduction timeline, high confidence of getting under $100/kWh by 2020), 3) drop the carrot/clue of the next coming announcement for people to wonder about, 4) some combination of 1-3.
Personally, I've sold about half my trading shares here around $200. $210+, I trade the other half, below $195 I start buying back some of those trading shares.
All that said, if the origin of the call is just NAV, I think at this point Elon will be aware to either 1) verbally slice up much recent FUD, 2) drop some new very strong fundamental information (I vote for significant positive revision in battery cost reduction timeline, high confidence of getting under $100/kWh by 2020), 3) drop the carrot/clue of the next coming announcement for people to wonder about, 4) some combination of 1-3.
Personally, I've sold about half my trading shares here around $200. $210+, I trade the other half, below $195 I start buying back some of those trading shares.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
High probability of this. Because... right now...the web site claims that the Tech Package With Autopilot includes "Lane keeping with automatic steering" and "Self-parking."
Seems like an explanation would be in order
InTheShadows
Active Member
doggusfluffy
Closed
I'm probably more like 10:1 bullish. I may be an idiot...but I'm at least consistent.
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