Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FANGO]

. For example, what happens when there is a hurricane along the coast? How does an event like that impact charger infrastructure? Where are critical shortages likely? Can all coastal residents with EVs safely evacuate? If Tesla gathers the right sort of data starting today, it will be in a strong position to answer such questions tomorrow and be able to roll out infrastructure in ways that are not only convenient on a pleasant day, but vital and reliable on a very bad day.

Try to imagine a natural disaster evacuation scenario today for drivers of gas vehicles. The highways get backed up, and gas stations start running out of fuel. People spend valuable time just driving around trying to find available fuel, adding congestion to the roads. The kind of app Tesla has introduced could be critical in such a situation. An app that understands how much fuel is in each vehicle's tank, where they are going, and how much fuel is in each gas station could guide each driver to the best available resources, saving time and minimizing search congestion. Such a system could save lives and would definitely reduce stress in a crisis. Just as this sort of app would be beneficial to drivers of gas vehicles, the same applies to EV drivers. In an evacuation scenario it can be beneficial to have both EVs and ICEs on the road, but drivers need to be able to find charging and fueling resources under difficult conditions. In a way, EV drivers will be smarter about this and better prepared because they have availed themselves to using online information resources on a more regular basis. Drivers of gas vehicles take a lot for granted. They think they can just drive around and locate an available gas station by sight along the road. But in a crisis when these drive find one station after another that either has ridiculously long lines or is completely out of gas, they will experience anxiety and disorientation. Social media is increasingly being used to respond to such situations. EV drivers who know how to find available charging infrastructure online as they drive on a routine basis will be prepared in crisis situations to do the same.

This sort of thing happened once already, and it turned out the EV drivers were more ready for it than everyone else.

electric car owners unfazed by storm

 

[sundaymorning]

Watch out, oil is on a sharp rise.

 

[Bunky]

Reasonably interesting article about yesterday's release:

http://mashable.com/2015/03/19/tesla-google-driverless-car/

"Just to be clear, we're not talking about some far-off future Tesla. We're not talking about Google driverless car prototypes or government road tests. This is a car you can buy today, which will be given the ability to drive itself in a few months via the same setup that updates your iPhone. Automated automobiles, automatically activated."

I can't wait for the first video of someone pulling up to their front door, jumping out and walking into their house, while the car casually continues along the driveway to the garage where it not only parks but closes the door behind it. Or the other way round with the car meeting the driver at the front door.

It would be a highly visual demonstration of the technological advantages that we, but not everyone, know so well and the coolness factor in the video would lend itself to a high likelihood of virality. Another example of the product marketing itself.

Oh, and the release of such video would likely be a short term catalyst (vain attempt to stay on topic :wink

 

[hockeythug]

More FUD about Norway sales being down compaired to prior year. People still don't get that Tesla shifts deliveries around even though they talk about it on every conference call.

 

[Krugerrand]

More FUD about Norway sales being down compaired to prior year. People still don't get that Tesla shifts deliveries around even though they talk about it on every conference call.

It could be two situations: not being aware of how delivers are shifted, or it's (and I lean this way for most circumstances nowadays, particular if it's media/individual who has covered Tesla for any length of time) willful dishonesty.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

News outlets digesting news from yesterday's press conference (like here).
I think emergency braking is a great feature!
Nice to see some new headlines flying around

BTW Model X betas are being driven around in Palo Alto more and more (like here yesterday).
There is no doubt we get some more news about Model X betas very soon.

 

[FredTMC]

Today is triple witching. Actually quad. Not sure what max-pain is today. Love to see TSLA over $200.

 

[hockeythug]

My local sports radio station talked about the auto pilot features discussed yesterday for like 5 minutes today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today is triple witching. Actually quad. Not sure what max-pain is today. Love to see TSLA over $200.

Max Pain for today's expiration is 202.50 based on yesterday's close: AAPL Max Pain

It was called Triple Witching Day when I worked in TV financial news. I still call it that despite a silly marketing ploy by an exchange to have it called Quadruple. Actually there are now many more than four option and futures classes that expire quarterly. The original intent was consideration of the quarterly expiration of individual stock options, stock index options and stock index futures. In mythology and literature, including Shakespeare, witches often come in threes never fours. I salute whoever first dubbed it Triple Witching Day for his literate contribution.

 

[FluxCap]

Max Pain for today's expiration is 202.50 based on yesterday's close: AAPL Max Pain

It was called Triple Witching Day when I worked in TV financial news. I still call it that despite a silly marketing ploy by an exchange to have it called Quadruple. Actually there are now many more than four option and futures classes that expire quarterly. The original intent was consideration of the quarterly expiration of individual stock options, stock index options and stock index futures. In mythology and literature, including Shakespeare, witches often come in threes never fours. I salute whoever first dubbed it Triple Witching Day for his literate contribution.

Indeed. After yesterday's action and given low volume, oil creeping up, and S&P rallying above 2100, I went ahead and bought some April 205's to see if I can scalp a few pennies on the way up to max pain. We shall see.

 

[Papafox]

Elon's conference yesterday effectively changed the momentum of the relentless bear attack. It was much like a coach calling a time out when the other team is on a roll. The mindframe of many investors has changed from "how much lower will TSLA go" to "when will it go up?" He did this by affirming Model X timetable and introducing technological breakthroughs that are coming in the not so distant future.

We interrupt this bear attack for a word from our sponsor.

 

[FredTMC]

Max Pain for today's expiration is 202.50 based on yesterday's close: AAPL Max Pain

It was called Triple Witching Day when I worked in TV financial news. I still call it that despite a silly marketing ploy by an exchange to have it called Quadruple. Actually there are now many more than four option and futures classes that expire quarterly. The original intent was consideration of the quarterly expiration of individual stock options, stock index options and stock index futures. In mythology and literature, including Shakespeare, witches often come in threes never fours. I salute whoever first dubbed it Triple Witching Day for his literate contribution.

Thx Curt. Nice to see max pain over $200. Hopefully TSLA gets pushed in that direction at close today

 

[Buddyroe]

More FUD about Norway sales being down compaired to prior year. People still don't get that Tesla shifts deliveries around even though they talk about it on every conference call.

The only way to shut people up is to stop missing the numbers. Q314 was only a slight miss, but Q4 was absolutely horrible and lit a flame under the FUDsters. If Tesla misses again this time, it's Katy bar the door - we'll never shut them up (not near-term anyway).

I will say this though. They were all spouting their numbers last time from China and Europe, and many of them project 31k to 32k yearly sales, and I'll be danged if they weren't right. Like with the news yesterday, Musk is going to have to reign in his projections by about 10-15%. You don't want to get a reputation of sandbagging, but even worse, his reputation for over-promising is growing daily. You can't miss guidance for sales 2 quarters in a row, and be a year late on your 2nd car, 2 years late on the swap station, God knows how late on the Chamedo adapter, and not expect people to start doubting you a little. Had he guided 31k for 2014, everybody would have said, "hmmmm, that's a lot, but maybe" and when they hit 31,600, it would have been a great beat but not a sandbagging beat. Same for 2015. 50k would have been a much better target than 55 IMO. Still a VERY nice increase, yet realistic. And even if you blow it out with 55k, that's only 10% over. No one will think anything of that. Basically, it's better to go conservative with projections for sales, revenue, profit, release dates, etc.

 

[jhm]

This sort of thing happened once already, and it turned out the EV drivers were more ready for it than everyone else.

electric car owners unfazed by storm

This is so cool. Not that I'm wishing for a disaster, but the next time an event triggers shortages at gas stations, I hope we get some great images of Tesla owners helping neighbors out.

Additionally, I would like to see Tesla develop emergency response teams that can bring emergency power and charging infrastructure into the next disaster. The GridLogic technology being developed with SolarCity could be deployed for emergency infrastrature. This would be a great humanitarian effort and generate excellent PR.

 

[FANGO]

This is so cool. Not that I'm wishing for a disaster, but the next time an event triggers shortages at gas stations, I hope we get some great images of Tesla owners helping neighbors out.

Additionally, I would like to see Tesla develop emergency response teams that can bring emergency power and charging infrastructure into the next disaster. The GridLogic technology being developed with SolarCity could be deployed for emergency infrastrature. This would be a great humanitarian effort and generate excellent PR.

Among my many other favorite things about EVs, this is maybe my favorite thing about EVs. They're completely energy agnostic. While everyone else is fighting over the one single source of energy they can use to make their car go, you can use *anything*. While the mad max teams are roaming the post-apocalyptic desert-scape, you can sit in your quiet suburban neighborhood with your solar panels and be fine. Or if it was a nuclear winter and the solar panels don't work, then you use wind or geothermal. They're just so much more flexible.

Hell, you could even use gasoline to fill up an EV - and it might even be more efficient than using it to fill a gas car, if you have an efficient enough generator (this is why freight trains are all diesel-electric, it's more efficient than straight diesel). Meanwhile, gas cars need *both* electricity *and* gas to work, because the gas pumps run on electricity...

 

[austinEV]

Among my many other favorite things about EVs, this is maybe my favorite thing about EVs. They're completely energy agnostic. While everyone else is fighting over the one single source of energy they can use to make their car go, you can use *anything*. While the mad max teams are roaming the post-apocalyptic desert-scape, you can sit in your quiet suburban neighborhood with your solar panels and be fine. Or if it was a nuclear winter and the solar panels don't work, then you use wind or geothermal. They're just so much more flexible.

Hell, you could even use gasoline to fill up an EV - and it might even be more efficient than using it to fill a gas car, if you have an efficient enough generator (this is why freight trains are all diesel-electric, it's more efficient than straight diesel). Meanwhile, gas cars need *both* electricity *and* gas to work, because the gas pumps run on electricity...

We are laughably far off topic, gas goes bad over time too. In a "mad max" situation, old fuel, with the volatiles evaporated, water contaminated, oxidized... eventually it barely burns. A few years into the apoloclypse it won't matter how good a road warrior you are, there just won't be any gas worth stealing. Meanwhile if you have an EV and a solar house you are fine transport-wise.

This fact is bugging the crap out of me on Fox's "last man on earth". Guy is alone for 2 years and chooses to live in Tuscon, in a house without solar panels or running water. But they drive around no problem, because everyone things "hey no worries about running out of gas". He wouldn't even be able to pump it from a gas station, much less keep cars running on old gas.

 

[Johan]

We are laughably far off topic, gas goes bad over time too. In a "mad max" situation, old fuel, with the volatiles evaporated, water contaminated, oxidized... eventually it barely burns. A few years into the apoloclypse it won't matter how good a road warrior you are, there just won't be any gas worth stealing. Meanwhile if you have an EV and a solar house you are fine transport-wise.

This fact is bugging the crap out of me on Fox's "last man on earth". Guy is alone for 2 years and chooses to live in Tuscon, in a house without solar panels or running water. But they drive around no problem, because everyone things "hey no worries about running out of gas". He wouldn't even be able to pump it from a gas station, much less keep cars running on old gas.

You're right about the silliness of gas (petrol, diesel) being this fuel that has very good storage properties.

Also you are not even close to going off topic. Please allow me: In the Mad Max movies I remember methane gas, produced from living pigs, as the sustainable option in such a future.

 

[RobStark]

You're right about the silliness of gas (petrol, diesel) being this fuel that has very good storage properties.

Also you are not even close to going off topic. Please allow me: In the Mad Max movies I remember methane gas, produced from living pigs, as the sustainable option in such a future.

That was Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome with Tina Turner. Not the original Mad Max; that was gasoline/petrol.

 

[Johan]

This fact is bugging the crap out of me on Fox's "last man on earth". Guy is alone for 2 years and chooses to live in Tuscon, in a house without solar panels or running water. But they drive around no problem, because everyone things "hey no worries about running out of gas". He wouldn't even be able to pump it from a gas station, much less keep cars running on old gas.

I haven't seen this show but I think the answer is: it's a show on FOX. In their world gas is an infinite resource that will be there always, even as our civilization fails.

 

[RobStark]

Aside from the "old gas" issue (would it get that old that fast in a closed system?), there are a large number of cars with no owners (did they poof into thin air?)

Pumps not necessary when you have a hose.......

According to Volt owners that go thousands of miles between gas station visits yes.

Almost all the people died from a virus but somehow the corpses did go poof into thin air.

Also they have not explained what happened to animals. There should be packs of wild dogs, feral pigs, feral cats, mountain lions should have made a big comeback etc.

But this is a sitcom not a gritty realistic drama.