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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Has anyone else read the new Elon Musk biography? Despite a few minor errors, it is an utterly compelling warts-and-all account. You cannot read it without concluding that Elon is one of the most remarkable people on the planet today, and that the success of his companies is almost a matter of destiny. I would guess the book will bring a lot of new investors to Tesla. Indeed it may be one of the reasons behind recent strength. It will also further assist Tesla in future partnerships and in its reputation as game-changer.
 
Has anyone else read the new Elon Musk biography? Despite a few minor errors, it is an utterly compelling warts-and-all account. You cannot read it without concluding that Elon is one of the most remarkable people on the planet today, and that the success of his companies is almost a matter of destiny. I would guess the book will bring a lot of new investors to Tesla. Indeed it may be one of the reasons behind recent strength. It will also further assist Tesla in future partnerships and in its reputation as game-changer.

Yes I have and I agree. Moreover failure is not an option, his determination not to fail, because his cause is right,
makes backing him very compelling. He is extremely competitive, though one may
think otherwise from his soft demeanor when interviewed.g
 
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I thought the stupid complaints about subsidies were done with months ago? The article that outlines the subsidies has zero context and a strange disclosure about where the information comes from. Almost feels like a way for Elon to remind people about the cost of subsidizing oil, natural gas, and coal.

No idea why he would mention Space X, since Space X is saving the government billions.
 
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You pretty much nailed it. California like Texas is a big state and Northern California is quite a bit different from Southern California where all the fake people live. I'm in a rural area of Norcal (I can ride my bike to Yosemite Valley) and i'm pretty much surrounded by Hillbilly's, bibles and guns. I picked up a BMW i3 a few weeks ago to tide us over until the Model 3 comes out and I think there are only 3 electric cars in the entire county (1 Leaf, 1 Model S and My i3). I may have a hard time denying myself the Model X and I may have to jump in line on that one later this year.

and, austin is a bubble of southern california in a sea of, well texas.
 
Any Grexit better not mess with my $TSLA. We have had years to prepare for a Grexit. As Mr. Wonderful, Kevin O'Leary says " there isn’t a policy fix for Greece’s problems, and the Eurozone shouldn’t make room for a member that’s unable to collect taxes effectively. Greeks have to undergo a cultural shift to embrace the merits of being taxed, and their government has to punish those who refuse to comply."
 
Any Grexit better not mess with my $TSLA. We have had years to prepare for a Grexit. As Mr. Wonderful, Kevin O'Leary says " there isn’t a policy fix for Greece’s problems, and the Eurozone shouldn’t make room for a member that’s unable to collect taxes effectively. Greeks have to undergo a cultural shift to embrace the merits of being taxed, and their government has to punish those who refuse to comply."

To be honest I never really understood the logic behind Grexit bringing Armageddon. I would expect quite the opposite: With a unfit, defaulting member kicked out of the Eurozone, this would set precedent and make it clear to everyone, that there are consequences to uncontrolled debt and just expecting the others to pay your dues. How come this doesn't make the Euro stronger? Members would comply better, plus this financial black hole would be separated. It's not like they are paying now, so most of this debt should be written off anyway.
 
To be honest I never really understood the logic behind Grexit bringing Armageddon. I would expect quite the opposite: With a unfit, defaulting member kicked out of the Eurozone, this would set precedent and make it clear to everyone, that there are consequences to uncontrolled debt and just expecting the others to pay your dues. How come this doesn't make the Euro stronger? Members would comply better, plus this financial black hole would be separated. It's not like they are paying now, so most of this debt should be written off anyway.

What is happening to Greece might happen to others. The Union might unravel like a house of cards. I hope it will not come to that as most people in the Union wish to be a part of it.

The problem is with Euro Zone, 19 countries that have a common currency without common supporting political, cultural and fiscal systems. Countries in Eurozone have no tools to control their economic fate.

1. ECB sets interest rates for the whole area. These rates are not suitable for all member countries, as the rates of growth differ in different countries. Germany, as the most powerful member, sets the rates and policy that work for them (austerity) but such policy is killing the growth in Greece, Italy, Portugal, regions with the slower growth.

2. There are barriers to the movement of capital and labour in Eurozone. Capital and people in Eurozone can not easily move to different Eurozone regions due to different language and culture, thus prohibiting capital and labour spilling and leveling across the currency area, as happens in other single currency areas.

3. Countries that have common monetary policy must have similar levels of national debt, otherwise they can not attract buyers of the debt notes. This is a problem for countries with high debt.

4. Countries inside Eurozone lack incentives to keep their house in order as they get the protection of common currency. Greece was reckless in the past as it felt secure with Euro loans, failed to get its act together, and this deviation feeds into itself and compounds the problem until it becomes unsustainable, as evidenced now with Greece.

5. Countries can not devalue Euro when their labour costs go up, as it is not their call when Euro should be devalued across the zone. That causes such countries to become uncompetitive and leads to high account deficits, fall in exports and low growth.

There are other problems as well, but in summary: Common currency imposed on countries that are so different resulted in countries being denied essential tools to steer their economies. I fail to see how Euro works for these countries.

If Greece gets kicked out by other members (unlikely) or forced out by the economic necessities (likely) that will be a mess as that will be a chaotic exit, as chaotic as it gets. That means no one will be in charge, no order, no answers or assurances, etc. I find that scary.
 
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After Porsche some weeks ago, nice compliment to Tesla Motors this time from GM CEO Marry T. Barra:
I think it's an impressive vehicle and company.
(twitter: link (via Phil LeBeau))

Congratulations Tesla and team!

Update:
At the same time it looks like GM has some difficulties with the name of their EV named "Bolt" currently under development:
United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has decided to suspend GM’s trademark application for the name ‘Bolt’.
(link)
 
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Segment of pricey SUV still growing above average, Phil LeBeau:

(twitter link)

Tesla is about to hit the sweet spot here with the upcoming Model X.
It looks like they designed the exactly right vehicle at exactly the right time!

Totally. And as usual, Tesla's only problem is... they can't produce enough to satisfy demand.

- - - Updated - - -

We're at $251 pre-market. Very nice rally since March 27th, and the Model X hasn't even really hit yet.
 
Analyst Recommendations 6/1

Ben Kallo opens the month of June with his famous PT of $275 and an "outperform" recommendation. Have a look at the 5Y PT vs Price chart.
Additionally, I have attached Kallo's note concerning energy storage. Sounds very promising, though he is not lasy to mention potentail market participants in this industry using different battery chemistry.

first, an article from last week
NSN NP0Z176K50XW<GO>
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Energy Storage Systems in U.S. Expected to Surge in Second Half
2015-05-28 15:08:55.991 GMT
By Justin Doom and Rachel Layne
(Bloomberg) -- Energy-storage systems will surge in 2H as
utilities show increasing interest and battery prices slide, a
study by GTM Research and Energy Storage Association says.
* Installations seen at 220MW for yr, with most of
installations in 2h, versus 62MW installed last yr
 

Attachments

  • TSLA_ANR_06 01.bmp
    379.8 KB · Views: 630
  • TSLA_CN_Ben Kallo.bmp
    379.8 KB · Views: 630
What is happening to Greece might happen to others. The Union might unravel like a house of cards. I hope it will not come to that as most people in the Union wish to be a part of it.

The problem is with Euro Zone, 19 countries that have a common currency without common supporting political, cultural and fiscal systems. Countries in Eurozone have no tools to control their economic fate.

1. ECB sets interest rates for the whole area. These rates are not suitable for all member countries, as the rates of growth differ in different countries. Germany, as the most powerful member, sets the rates and policy that work for them (austerity) but such policy is killing the growth in Greece, Italy, Portugal, regions with the slower growth.

2. There are barriers to the movement of capital and labour in Eurozone. Capital and people in Eurozone can not easily move to different Eurozone regions due to different language and culture, thus prohibiting capital and labour spilling and leveling across the currency area, as happens in other single currency areas.

3. Countries that have common monetary policy must have similar levels of national debt, otherwise they can not attract buyers of the debt notes. This is a problem for countries with high debt.

4. Countries inside Eurozone lack incentives to keep their house in order as they get the protection of common currency. Greece was reckless in the past as it felt secure with Euro loans, failed to get its act together, and this deviation feeds into itself and compounds the problem until it becomes unsustainable, as evidenced now with Greece.

5. Countries can not devalue Euro when their labour costs go up, as it is not their call when Euro should be devalued across the zone. That causes such countries to become uncompetitive and leads to high account deficits, fall in exports and low growth.

There are other problems as well, but in summary: Common currency imposed on countries that are so different resulted in countries being denied essential tools to steer their economies. I fail to see how Euro works for these countries.

If Greece gets kicked out by other members (unlikely) or forced out by the economic necessities (likely) that will be a mess as that will be a chaotic exit, as chaotic as it gets. That means no one will be in charge, no order, no answers or assurances, etc. I find that scary.

Wow, what a great summary. TMC is the best neighborhood on the internet :)

As if answering the same question, Paul Krugman wrote this today: Log In - The New York Times

if you are Googling it, it is titled "That 1914 feeling".
 
Great summary Auzie.

The fact that Greece and Germany should have a common interest rate and a common monetary policy is ridinkidonk. This has been a disaster waiting to happen for a long time.

The fact that the national sport of Greece seems to be tax avoidance doesn't help either.
 
At the end of the day, The forces that unite europe under a common currency are greater than the forces that pull it apart.
the contagion to the financial system is no longer an issue, and this is much to do about nothing.
Moreover it is many degrees of separation away from tesla.
i am working under this hypothesis until proven wrong.

I remember the worries when brezhnev died.
 

The folly of Texas power generators blocking Oncor from using batteries is this: the transmission and distribution cost of electricity is about 5 c/kWh. This T&D cost is largely what gives rooftop solar and other DER an advantage over grid generators. If you are a grid generator you really ought to want the cost of getting your product to the end user to be as low as possible. Otherwise, generators will be stranded from the market by the high cost of the infrastructure they need to get to the market. What do they think will happen as distributed solar goes to 5 c/kWh and the T&D costs tacked on to grid generated power is still around 5 c/kWh?

This makes as much sense as dairies opposing the use of refrigerated trucks.
 
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The LA Times has a hit piece out this morning about . . . you guessed it . . . subsidies.

http://www.latimes.com/local/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-box-20150530-story.html

@Johan, I guess the LA Times gets the Heartland Institute's memos. Or, maybe this is the memo verbatim?


Saw the subsidies headline late last night/early this morning. I'm not going to bother reading it but I bet they don't bother mentioning how EVERY large US-based corporation gets a subsidy already in the form of tax breaks and other loopholes. Further, companies that pay low wages, such as Walmart or McDonald's, end up double dipping as their employees go on some sort of government assistance paid by who? Us the taxpayer.
 
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