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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Not sure where to put this, so I'm putting it in here since this thread is pretty alive most of the time. So I was watching the latest episode of Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee and look what I saw:

View attachment 83162

Pretty funny that it shows up this way because Jerry is all about "real" cars and even has automaker commercials at the beginning and end of his episodes.

If you have never seen this series before, you should definitely check it out.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus Julia Louis-Dreyfus: I’ll Go If I Don’t Have To Talk - Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee by Jerry Seinfeld


I think Jerry is not an electric car fan if I remember correctly and Letterman had originally wanted to use his Leaf as the feature for his episode but went with his Paul Newman built Volvo (with puffer) instead. Around the 16:30 mark.
David Letterman I Like Kettlecorn - Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee by Jerry Seinfeld
 
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I think Jerry is not an electric car fan if I remember correctly and Letterman had originally wanted to use his Leaf as the feature for his episode but went with his Paul Newman built Volvo (with puffer) instead.

Yeah, that's what I got from all these episodes he's done....which is a shame.....I swear I remember Letterman riding off in a LEAF though....haha
 
The consolidation over the past few weeks is very interesting. Almost no volume and minimal moment. Implies consolidation, distribution, and neutral market sentiment. Expecting a big move next week.

The lack of activity on this thread about spells it out.
 
The consolidation over the past few weeks is very interesting. Almost no volume and minimal moment. Implies consolidation, distribution, and neutral market sentiment. Expecting a big move next week.

The lack of activity on this thread about spells it out.

Perhaps everyone is waiting for the Shareholder meeting this Tuesday for more news. I'm also expecting a big move, but the real question is in which direction.
 
New deals for Tesla Energy keep coming in.
This startup just scored a deal to install a massive number of Tesla grid batteries:
In California’s emerging energy storage industry, a new player is making a big impression.
A three-year-old, well-connected San Francisco startup has signed a contract to buy and install a whopping 500 megawatt hours worth of grid batteries from Tesla. That size of deal would include the equivalent of installing tens of thousands of Tesla’s Powerwall batteries, many in California, over the course of the next five years. The startup is called Advanced Microgrid Solutions and the company installs batteries in buildings and uses smart software to manage the collective battery energy to help utilities better run the power grid.
The company is led by co-founders Susan Kennedy and Jackalyne Pfannenstiel, who each have long history in the energy industry. Kennedy is the former chief of staff to California Governors Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gray Davis, and former commissioner for the California Public Utilities Commission. Pfannenstiel previously chaired the California Energy Commission, worked at utility PG&E for twenty years, and was the assistant secretary of the U.S. Navy in charge of energy strategy. In addition to Advanced Microgrid Systems’s well-connected founders, the company also has an important advisor—DBL Investors’ Managing Partner Nancy Pfund, who was also an early investor in Tesla.
Kennedy described the partnership with Tesla as “a big deal” in an interview with Fortune and said the company chose Tesla as the battery tech supplier for its projects after reviewing tech from all over the world because “frankly, Tesla was the most powerful and scalable and in a class of its own.” Tesla is currently using lithium ion batteries from Panasonic and has developed its own power electronics and battery management software system.
(link)

This could have a multiplier effect in the Silicon Valley region.
 
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New deals for Tesla Energy keep coming in.
This startup just scored a deal to install a massive number of Tesla grid batteries:

(link)

This could have a multiplier effect in the Silicon Valley region.

Thanks for the info and link: My favorite part:

Kennedy described the partnership with Tesla as “a big deal” in an interview with Fortune and said the company chose Tesla as the battery tech supplier for its projects after reviewing tech from all over the world because “frankly, Tesla was the most powerful and scalable and in a class of its own.” Tesla is currently using lithium ion batteries from Panasonic and has developed its own power electronics and battery management software system.
 
Thanks for the info and link: My favorite part:

Kennedy described the partnership with Tesla as “a big deal” in an interview with Fortune and said the company chose Tesla as the battery tech supplier for its projects after reviewing tech from all over the world because “frankly, Tesla was the most powerful and scalable and in a class of its own.” Tesla is currently using lithium ion batteries from Panasonic and has developed its own power electronics and battery management software system.

Same here;)
Other news outlets are picking up the story: LearnBonds (link)

Update:
Bloomberg: link
 
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I feel extremely confident saying far too many things are not being included in the $300-$400 price targets.

When Tesla announces it has received preorders that will convert to orders, for billions of battery storage, nothing else will matter. I think analysts are staying quiet until Elon announces the figures , reveals Tesla has secretly made it possible to ramp up faster than expected to meet the demand, or reveals how much Tesla has already been paid for the "preorders".

My guess is the margins on the commercial battery storage units is very high. Would it be unusual for Tesla to require a large percent of the cost to be paid ahead of time? This would give Tesla $billions to invest in beginning production of Gigafactory 2 and Gigafactory 3, and to accelerate production at Gigafactory 1. Elon has mentioned multiple times that in the long term, hundreds of Gigafactories will be needed.

Has anyone looked at how much Tesla is charging for the Powerpack or when Tesla is being paid for them?

I think many investors might be nervous about the order numbers because Tesla isn't currently requiring any sort of deposit to get in line. I'm very curious how Tesla is planning to meet the demand without having to delay the Model X. My guess is the Model X will be released soon, but the ramp up might be a bit slower than expected, which could benefit Tesla.

My guess is Tesla secured long term supply contracts before showing its hand. This would give Tesla a huge advantage, when the material costs increase, as other manufacturers try to play catchup. It is extremely unlikely Tesla won't need a minimum of 1-2 additional factories by 2020, to meet the demand for its current products.
 
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The consolidation over the past few weeks is very interesting. Almost no volume and minimal moment. Implies consolidation, distribution, and neutral market sentiment. Expecting a big move next week.

The lack of activity on this thread about spells it out.

After a 25% run-up, we normally see a pull-back, but it really hasn't happened this time. The implication of low volume and steady price is that the market expects the 250 price point to be a moment of pause, rather than a top.
 
After a 25% run-up, we normally see a pull-back, but it really hasn't happened this time. The implication of low volume and steady price is that the market expects the 250 price point to be a moment of pause, rather than a top.

Completely agree. Also, $250 is a mid point between the 52 week high at $291, and the long term resistance around $200.

I think analysts don't know how to account for the Powerwall and Powerpack since Tesla hasn't said how many it can produce, what the pricing for the commercial units will be, how Tesla will prioritize orders, how much Tesla is willing to delay Model S sales, to increase Powerwall sales, or how much and when Tesla is being paid for the utility scale orders.
 
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Completely agree. Also, $250 is a mid point between the 52 week high at $291, and the long term resistance around $200.

I think analysts don't know how to account for the Powerwall and Powerpack since Tesla hasn't said how many it can produce, what the pricing for the commercial units will be, how Tesla will prioritize orders, how much Tesla is willing to delay Model S sales, to increase Powerwall sales, or how much and when Tesla is being paid for the utility scale orders.

This and everyone is waiting for the X factor
 
After a 25% run-up, we normally see a pull-back, but it really hasn't happened this time. The implication of low volume and steady price is that the market expects the 250 price point to be a moment of pause, rather than a top.

My sense is that market participants are generally in "wait and see" mode, given that the Investors meeting is next week and that the Model X launch is nearly here.

The implication of the stationary storage products are still not well understood. I'm expecting share price movements to be fairly boring until the last half of the year.
 
Quick question, re VERY short term TSLA price movements...

For years I've used Yahoo!Finance to watch stock prices. When viewing a whole list of stock quotes, the prices all auto-update fine, every second or so. But starting maybe 4-5 months ago, the quote on any specific stock's summary page no longer auto-updated every second. So apparently gone are the days of just having a browser window open to http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA to watch it change during the day.

What (free) websites do others use to view the TSLA price change from tick to tick?
 
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