Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[larmor]

I realize this is a short term thread, but one key point from the meeting was that they are on target to produce 500k vehicles per year, by the comment regarding the paint facility. For people in the production business, is this the rate limiting step in scaling volume for cars? Some analysts have disputed this projection.

Other key related points are facilities where they are spending their capital cost to make this happen. Building cars is hard with all the moving parts, not like a phone, watch, or subscription service which of course present their own diffculties. However in this case, the timeline for car production and going from 50k to 500k, requires a longer term plan.

So long term planning, and a peek at EM's TM spreadsheet has shown us they are really going to make 500k cars...

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Ben Kallo reiterates his "outperform" recommendation and PT of $335

really don't see why do some people got the impression the meeting was negative? for those, icluding myself, who couldn't attend or not even watch the meeting via webcast, please read the full transcript carefully here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/324...ts-2015-annual-shareholder-meeting-transcript

didn't he say last year that the full production of the Gigafactory is intended to happen in 2020?

We’ll have the first part of it active next year but then we want to try to get to full production in roughly three years, maybe we’ll -- roughly three years, three to four years.

so 3-4 years, meaning 2018 or 2019 at the very latest. I like this.

 

[aznt1217]

I think people are confusing a lot of things. The shareholder meeting was fine the two biggest pieces of news was the liquid cooled sc cable (I cannot emphasize how important this is) and the change in power wall packs.

Deepak leaving was also interesting. They'll need to find a new CFO that can handle Elon and the culture. This is not an easy task in the Auto Industry.

In regards to timing. X is on time. 3-4 months means Jun, Jul, Aug, latest Sep. June month inclusive.

In regards to GF being up and running next year I think he's referring to it fully and not this phase 1. Its been said previously SOME things will be made at the end of this year at this part of the GF.

 

[Matias]

I think people are confusing a lot of things. The shareholder meeting was fine the two biggest pieces of news was the liquid cooled sc cable (I cannot emphasize how important this is) and the change in power wall packs.

Deepak leaving was also interesting. They'll need to find a new CFO that can handle Elon and the culture. This is not an easy task in the Auto Industry.

In regards to timing. X is on time. 3-4 months means Jun, Jul, Aug, latest Sep. June month inclusive.

In regards to GF being up and running next year I think he's referring to it fully and not this phase 1. Its been said previously SOME things will be made at the end of this year at this part of the GF.

IMHO biggest news was, that they still have problems with Model X doors and seats.

 

[Drax7]

There is a thread here in this sub forum that was a real time blog of the meeting. I think the blogging starts on page 3.

Personally, I thought the shareholder meeting was a damp squib. Here's what I got out of it:

- They are STILL working on production details of the Model X. The falcon wing door and seats continue to be a problem, production 3-4 months out, still, which is a push back of the latest prediction. And given they are still working on issues, 3-4 months could still be wrong and more delays possible.

- This new Model X delay WILL affect analyst quarterly revenue and profit predictions. With a very possible limited number of Model X shipping now only in the 4th quarter, 3Q, 4Q, and year end numbers (revenue and profit) are in jeopardy.

- While Model S have been selling strong in the west and south (read Atlanta) of the US, they are having issues penetrating the north east (majority of US population). You could read this as saying they still have room to grow in the US, or you could say they aren't going to sell much in the northeast until they spend on advertising.

- Elon admitted many messaging mistakes. Potential new Model S buyers were confused about Tesla's description of a "dual motor" car, not understanding that it is all wheel drive, and really not understanding that it blows away every single other AWD vehicle out there in terms of traction performance (except maybe for a tracked tank). Powerwall roll out was also bungled, with mixed messaging from Solarcity and Tesla not exactly providing much clarifying detail.

- The next version of the autopilot that includes active steering is still in development. Elon said he hoped it could be released to beta testers in one month, with roll out after that. He said each new release he tests either gets better or worse depending on the day. This doesn't fill me with confidence. My personal prediction is that we won't see this more autonomous release until end of year, if then. And it won't be as good as people want it to be.

- Elon admitted that to get to the next level of fully autonomous driving, the car will need, surprise!, a better hardware sensor suite, and probably a more robust computer architecture. A lot of people think the current hardware suite shipping now will get them to fully autonomous driving. They will be disappointed when they realize this isn't so.

- Gigafactory first product output not expected until mid next year - this might be a slight schedule slip, or at least, not positive news.

- Oh yeah, almost forgot: the very well respected CFO is resigning this year. That'll calm institutional investors!

I'm sorry guys, but I'm not seeing the upside from this shareholder's meeting...

Self serving assertions with the intent to manipulate sentiment and stock price

model x will be the best SUV ever , said with conviction, felt great to hear

 

[uselesslogin]

I think people are confusing a lot of things. The shareholder meeting was fine the two biggest pieces of news was the liquid cooled sc cable (I cannot emphasize how important this is).

Yeah this was my favorite from the meeting. Faster supercharging will go a long way to get more converts down the road.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I think people are confusing a lot of things. The shareholder meeting was fine the two biggest pieces of news was the liquid cooled sc cable (I cannot emphasize how important this is) and the change in power wall packs.

exactly! thanks for reminding me.

it’s the thin subtle cord; it’s really great. And it also has the potential for increased power of the Supercharger long-term.

I assume he is also referring to certain improvements in terms of charging time/speed in some future time. He said recently, the ideal chariging time is 20 minutes.

 

[Larken]

IMHO biggest news was, that they still have problems with Model X doors and seats.

You mean they are still working to perfect a product before its release to the public, and it "might" be delayed by another 1,5 week? Gee I wonder if the other automakers are this diligent in perfecting their products and keeping their customer base happy....? Let's not loose the perspective please.
In 6 months from now when awards, praises and admiration for what Tesla has done with Model X are pouring in, I'm sure no one is going to remember that it was delayed for the sake of giving their customers a superior product, which will in turn create an even bigger loyal customer base.

 

[eepic]

You mean they are still working to perfect a product before its release to the public, and it "might" be delayed by another 1,5 week? Gee I wonder if the other automakers are this diligent in perfecting their products and keeping their customer base happy....? Let's not loose the perspective please.
In 6 months from now when awards, praises and admiration for what Tesla has done with Model X are pouring in, I'm sure no one is going to remember that it was delayed for the sake of giving their customers a superior product, which will in turn create an even bigger loyal customer base.

I think that's the concern, it may not be out there in 6 months. From his tone it sounds like there are still some details they are figuring out, spoken with about the same confidence about it as every other time he's said that in the last year. All else the same, it would have been great to hear him confirm summer deliveries and configuration/unveil next month to indicate they were done with the details.

 

[ibcs]

Premarket at 251.25 for a few share for those that want to load up.

 

[MikeC]

Premarket at 251.25 for a few share for those that want to load up.

Was as low as 250.10 on low volume. Bear attack?

 

[ibcs]

Was as low as 250.10 on low volume. Bear attack?

Opportunity! Nothing was negative from the annual shareholders meeting except the resignation of the CFO. Model X is still on time. My guess is dip will be erased in three days max.

- - - Updated - - -

Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson maintains overweight rating with price target of $293. Says CFO Departure and Elon Musk's commentary on time of Model X have "throw a bit of cold water" on the recent uptrend in the company's share price. Source Ameritrade Live News sorry no link.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I think that's the concern, it may not be out there in 6 months. From his tone it sounds like there are still some details they are figuring out, spoken with about the same confidence about it as every other time he's said that in the last year. All else the same, it would have been great to hear him confirm summer deliveries and configuration/unveil next month to indicate they were done with the details.

I think this topic is blown waaaay out of proportion. Yes, a year or two ago, Elon specifically mentioned that it is challenging to build those doors, but since then this has morphed into this urban legend that the X is delayed because if the doors. At no point in time did Elon say yesterday that the door is a showstopper and the car could be delivered tomorrow if it wasn't for that. Everything seems to be on schedule, they are in the process of expanding capacity of the body line and paint shop to be able to handle S & X. The only thing he said was that they are fine tuning stuff like the doors to make sure they have a great user experience.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nothing was negative from the annual shareholders meeting except the resignation of the CFO.

Even that's not a negative given that the CFO will stay to help handpick his successor and ensure a smooth transition. How often does that happen? I get the distinct impression that the CFO will be 'available' at any future date should Tesla really need him.

 

[eepic]

I think this topic is blown waaaay out of proportion. Yes, a year or two ago, Elon specifically mentioned that it is challenging to build those doors, but since then this has morphed into this urban legend that the X is delayed because if the doors. At no point in time did Elon say yesterday that the door is a showstopper and the car could be delivered tomorrow if it wasn't for that. Everything seems to be on schedule, they are in the process of expanding capacity of the body line and paint shop to be able to handle S & X. The only thing he said was that they are fine tuning stuff like the doors to make sure they have a great user experience.

Elon would (rightly) never tell the public there is a showstopper issue, even if there was. But read between the lines - they've been in "just getting the details right" mode for about a year now. If the configuration/reveal is on schedule for next month, you would expect him to say they are in final validation, not still working on some of the details.

 

[FluxCap]

We have to remember that analysts and traders often do not pay attention to the same things as long-term investors and customers, and they listen for anything that might affect their valuation models. The perceived slip in model X timing based on Elon's semi-vague comments means some direct adjustments to production and delivery numbers in analyst spreadsheet valuation models for TSLA happened last night. Also, the CFO of a company is the primary interface to Wall St other than CEO normally, and Deepak's strong, steady hand will be missed I'm sure. Not that they won't find a replacement, but it's still a bit of uncertainty which could create temporary volatility.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Pacific Crest On Tesla: Musk's 'Vague' Model X Commentary 'Raises Risk To Numbers' | Benzinga

None of this affects long term viability of Tesla in any way. This is just short term stuff.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Elon would (rightly) never tell the public there is a showstopper issue, even if there was. But read between the lines - they've been in "just getting the details right" mode for about a year now. If the configuration/reveal is on schedule for next month, you would expect him to say they are in final validation, not still working on some of the details.

but they do work on some "final" details. see extract from SA's published transcript.

So with the Model X, the long awaited Model X, so we’re expecting to begin our first deliveries in probably about three months or four months.[...] It’s got to be a genuine improvement in utility and esthetics I think for to be right. So getting those final nuances right for the Model X is what we’re focused on right now. But we’re really in the short starts with getting this to market.

 

[Yonki]

While I largely found Cosmacelf's cynical/slanted interpretation on par with the quality and accuracy of an article in the LA Times, this:

Elon admitted that to get to the next level of fully autonomous driving, the car will need, surprise!, a better hardware sensor suite, and probably a more robust computer architecture. A lot of people think the current hardware suite shipping now will get them to fully autonomous driving. They will be disappointed when they realize this isn't so.

...is pretty much exactly what I thought when Elon was talking about it. It didn't sound like there were currently enough cameras/sensors to perform the job, let alone with the level of redundancy and a goal of "10 times more safer than a person" Elon wants. Which is disappointing if not exactly surprising considering the magnitude of the task. As a shareholder the last thing I want is Teslas killing people in their sleep. Since this is a "cool to have" feature - not one that's critical for Tesla's success - I don't see it as a big deal. Particularly since it's not going to be introduced until ~2020.

Overall I left the meeting positive that Tesla is meeting all its major goals.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Pacific Crest On Tesla: Musk's 'Vague' Model X Commentary 'Raises Risk To Numbers' | Benzinga

Fair article. Model S sold 10k last quarter, will sell 11k this quarter. Assuming a steady growth rate with 12k in Q3 and 13k in Q4, there remains 9000 model X's to reach guidance or about 700 every single week of the last quarter. The company promised us a short ramp-up so it is possible but even a minor QA issue can put short term numbers in jeopardy.

 

[Gerardf]

I must say I am also a bit puzzled why they wait this long with showing more of the Model-X. I assume the design is final and virtually production ready by now, yesterday was a good moment to show the current model on stage as visual proof that no more delays are expected, without giving away all goodies and 'secret special features'. I can imagine reservation holders and shareholders being a bit disappointed.

I hope the reason for all the secrecy and late reveal is a very good one and in order to make the official launch a very big event.