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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Or maybe it is based on the 85D, which has 270 mile = 434.5 km. Going from 434.5 to 508 is a 16.9% increase. The hypothesis that the 70D was enabled by using cells that are 16.6% higher density would apply here as well, giving us a 100 kWh pack for roughly the same mass as the current 85 kWh. Indeed, the density gain theory had predicted this precise outcome. So if this Tweet means what I think it does, we may have one more data point confirming this theory.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Actually thinking about it again, there was one bit of good news from the shareholder meeting yesterday. Elon gave more background and color to the Powerpack market. I don't know if he was just blowing smoke, but he said the Powerpack was energy dense enough that it could in theory be dropped in place on many existing substations. This is as opposed to lead acid battery systems. This is a big deal. He also re-iterated that the economics of utility scale batteries are such that they make sense even without the impact of renewables. Again, I don't know if he is just exaggerating, but, if true, that's also an indication of a huge market.
I guess we won't really know until they actually start selling these things to utilities and generating significant income from it.
I guess we won't really know until they actually start selling these things to utilities and generating significant income from it.
Jamie Albertine of Stifel Nicolaus seems to agree about the huge potential lever faster SuperCharging is likely to be in mass preference for Tesla's vehicles. He also pre-empts bear FUD re Deepak's retirement being a scheme to dump his TSLA holdings.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102748311?__...adline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102748311
fwiw, I'd put Albertine way up there, close to Andrea James, as far as consistently getting Tesla and explaining its potential in clear level headed terms.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102748311?__...adline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102748311
fwiw, I'd put Albertine way up there, close to Andrea James, as far as consistently getting Tesla and explaining its potential in clear level headed terms.
The only reason why I mentioned the SC liquid cooling as a huge thing is because it creates and entirely new market for Model S and future vehicles that was no available previously... that market is people who want the cars and live in apartments/condos/co-ops that do not allow installation of a plug.
This may not be the case in California but this is the case in places like where I live in New York. I want a Model S but will not drive to a supercharger and wait there and have the pack degrade throughout the week. As the superchargers get more plentiful and the cooling can be used... we can top of extremely quickly. I wanted the pack swap here in the North East because it would be my only viable option and I'd be willing to pay because the P85D is like a lambo. Liquid cooled faster charging would totally do it. Instead of the SC Ramp up in KwH it can start off like that right off the bat. A Supercooled Supercharger shooting is far more scaleable and economical than a Battery Swap Station.
I think this is really a big deal and largely under appreciated. He described that a powerpack can be added to a substation without substantial engineering. This pushes some storage to the periphery, reducing transmission loss, and really has big potential for peak shaving. The discussion around utility generation cost vs. customer charges in the US was also very interesting with regards to US market being driven by utilities/ large industrial customers. Utilities in the US may be looking at $250k - $2m installs with very short payback times. I was surprised that Elon didn't come out and say that GF2 would be overseas instead of in the US. This could be why.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Market has not reacted to this Tweet yet. I like the idea of implying an announcement in a photo so that trade bots can't jump on it.
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I did some more digging. Ideal range on P85D, at least the earliest deliveries, was/is 329 miles. So that all lines up then: (aka no secret announcement)
P85D Range Charge Rated and Ideal Mile Readings | Forums | Tesla Motors
On Monday, Messrs Musk and Straubel were in a long interview at the US power companies' Big Meeting: The Edison Electric Institute conference. They devoted a very large amount of time to this specific point, and I came away from it believing that it made a very large and positive impression on the industry leaders, as well.
Let's not get too far ahead of the actual technology. While the liquid cooled cable is supercool and awesome technology, it won't, by itself, lead to faster Supercharging. The limiting factor in Supercharger has always been the battery size and chemistry. As far as we know, the current generation battery that Tesla uses cannot charge at faster than 120 kW, no matter what kind of cool cable you use.
Runarbt
Active Member
One argument against larger batteries has been the increased charging time. Liquid cooled cables help in this case.
Mayyybe. Have you charged on a hot sunny day? The cable is almost too hot to touch. I wouldn't be surprised if it was limited by the battery AND the cable, hitting limits at about the same time. Besides, this liquid cooled approach is better for no other reason that the current cables are short, stiff hard to use. I have had times where I had get back in my car and adjust my parking just to plug in.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Looks like $250 area is support from now on thanks to the two analyst updates today after annual sharehoders meeting.
BTW I am very happy that battery swap turned out not to be attractive enough for customers at an early stage of testing.
Rolling out global battery swap stations as part of the charging infrastructure would have increased cost and risk for Tesla Motors.
Confirmation now de-risks the charging solution Tesla Motors chose before Model X will rollout and fleet will increase drastically.
Please let's not forget that Better Place chose battery swap together with Renault as a solution and was not successful.
Very happy about the decision Tesla Motors took here.
BTW I am very happy that battery swap turned out not to be attractive enough for customers at an early stage of testing.
Rolling out global battery swap stations as part of the charging infrastructure would have increased cost and risk for Tesla Motors.
Confirmation now de-risks the charging solution Tesla Motors chose before Model X will rollout and fleet will increase drastically.
Please let's not forget that Better Place chose battery swap together with Renault as a solution and was not successful.
Very happy about the decision Tesla Motors took here.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Well, I guess if you take the "P85D " literally, then the car has an 85 kWh pack too.
So why would Tesla publish a picture with the ideal range? This seems misleading. Could Tesla get nabbed for false advertising? Either this is a marketing blunder or Tesla really is trying to signal something new.
Regardless, the hypothesis of a 100 kWh pack still stands as a prediction, if only we have to wait longer for confirmation.
Here's my wish: we see announcement soon of a Model S 100D with 500 km range plus a super fast liquid cooled Supercharger capable of charging 10 miles per minute (200 kW ). We can all have wishes, can't we?
JB said about a year and a half ago that Tesla aspires to bring SuperCharging down to 5-10 minutes. Elon's comment yesterday did not promise faster SuperCharging, but it indicated that the new cable helps to make this possible. It's worth mentioning that JB said this was not a near term goal, was difficult, but that he was optimistic.
I've already written the main reason (post below) I think faster SuperCharging is a massive lever in Tesla's growth that hardly gets discussed (short summary, if Tesla did this they could likely sell ~300K+ Model S/X annually by 2020, though I suspect that production capacity would go to the Model 3). I'll add to this the very substantial added benefit that in my view reducing SuperCharging times dramatically will dramatically reduce the number of SuperChargers Tesla needs to add to the network. The network is built to peak use. In theory, it would seem reducing the amount of time a vehicle needs to recharge at a SuperCharger by 75% would reduce the number of SuperChargers needed by 75% (of course, with the improved experience of using the network, it would get used more, somewhat offsetting the reduction of required SuperChargers). If I've missed something basic here, please don't hesitate to point it out to me.
link to main reason I think faster SuperCharging is a massive lever to more rapid EV adoption, post #11:
What Question Would You Like to Hear at the Shareholder Meeting?
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