Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

So... Here I am again and there you are.

I am before you today as the prophet of 8ball. And I predict...

"I am no prophet, nor a prophet's son; but I am a herdsman, and a dresser of sycamore trees, and the LORD took me from following the flock..."

 

[uselesslogin]

So I just got back from a trip to Cape May, NJ with my wife's family. We drove down from her Mom's house in central NJ. We were there for a week. I never saw a single Tesla. Then, in Austin, we saw 3 Teslas on the way home from the airport. I always wonder if this is a big reason there are so many shorts. It may be harder to believe Tesla is really succeeding if you never see any.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

So I just got back from a trip to Cape May, NJ with my wife's family. We drove down from her Mom's house in central NJ. We were there for a week. I never saw a single Tesla. Then, in Austin, we saw 3 Teslas on the way home from the airport. I always wonder if this is a big reason there are so many shorts. It may be harder to believe Tesla is really succeeding if you never see any.

This is definitely true.
The same applies to Germany.
People still have difficulties to belive all the positive things Tesla Motors accomplished during the last years.
I still have difficult discussions here in Germany with friends/people of all ages.
A lot of people still do not get the most basic things about Tesla Motors.
But all this scepticism changes all of a sudden once they take a drive in a Model S.
It is amazing to see this transformation and change of mindest during a test drive again and again
At least as time goes by some more friends tell me (a litte proud) that they have seen a Tesla here or there on the road.
To my opinion it is still way too easy for the broad masses in Germany to ignore this big change coming as there are too few EVs on the road.

BTW great article in german Handelsblatt with quotes by Ferdinand Dudenhöffer (well known in the automotive industry in Germany, chief of Center of Automotive Research (CAR) of Universität Duisburg-Essen):

Audi, BMW and Mercedes: How Tesla annoys the Germans
The Mercedes S-class, the Audi A8 and the BMW 7 Series are the cash machines of their corporations.
But US competitor Tesla wins little by little market share in the premium class.
To date, the Germans lack the appropriate response.

Here are just some tid bits, quite a few more in the article:
Compared to H1 2014 Tesla delivered about +110% vehicles in H1 2015 in Germany.
With these delivery numbers Tesla inches closer to Porsche 911 & Cayenne, Mercedes S-class, Audi A8 and already outsells Jaguar F-Type and the new Maserati Ghibli.
Tesla already delivering more vehicles in Germany than 10% of Porsche's sales.
In June Tesla outsold BMW 7 series (there'll be a new one soon) and Porsche Panamera in Germany.
The recent delivery numbers of Tesla Motors in Germany should be a warning sign for the german car manufacturers, "It's a risky strategy to take Tesla lightly" said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer (chief of Center of Automotive Research (CAR) of Universität Duisburg-Essen).

Tesla remains unchallenged in the international electrical superclass.

(in case you are interested in additional information, the article is well worth a read: link Handelsblatt: german google translate)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

As we discussed here some weeks/months ago declining oil prices will likely affect EVs with a higher price tag like the Model S less compared to cheaper ones like the Nissan Leaf.
There is a new study out recently by IHS Automotive saying just this as the Model S outsold the Leaf for the first time during Q1 this year in the US:
"Tesla Model S is the Most Popular EV by Volume in the U.S" (link).

 

[austinEV]

So I just got back from a trip to Cape May, NJ with my wife's family. We drove down from her Mom's house in central NJ. We were there for a week. I never saw a single Tesla. Then, in Austin, we saw 3 Teslas on the way home from the airport. I always wonder if this is a big reason there are so many shorts. It may be harder to believe Tesla is really succeeding if you never see any.

Maybe I was one. I also think some people who only know the price think it's an ostentatious purchase; showing off. Personally I wish I had a stealth mode.

 

[chickensevil]

Maybe I was one. I also think some people who only know the price think it's an ostentatious purchase; showing off. Personally I wish I had a stealth mode.

This is exactly why I look forward to the cheaper one. While a 35k luxury car is still a status car to some degree, it is dramatically less so, especially over here in the DC area where everyone is driving Mercedes, BMW and Audi all over the place.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Maybe I was one. I also think some people who only know the price think it's an ostentatious purchase; showing off. Personally I wish I had a stealth mode.

Same here, buying the car for what it is and not at all for showing off, Model 3 would be preferred.
Yea, stealth mode should be the next feature implemented and included in SW-version 7.0
My experience is that most people in Germany are curious and simply interested in asking frindly questions about the Model S and Tesla.
Other than while driving with my friends old Porsche, people are usually not looking that friendly.
Feels good to sit in a Model S.

 

[Bobbyducati]

rise in the premarket, wiped out early after open... for like the 4th day in a row. its almost comical how identical the behavior has been lately. And im just sitting on the sidelines for all of it :/

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like Tesla will soon expand to Korea.
Tesla Motors is currently looking for a Vice President, Sales for Japan and Korea.
The position is focused on all of Tesla’s direct sales activities in the Japanese and Korean markets:

Lead the Japan and Korea sales teams at Tesla HQ and at Tesla Retail Stores as well as in the field to achieve exponential sales objectives.

(job description: link)

 

[aznt1217]

rise in the premarket, wiped out early after open... for like the 4th day in a row. its almost comical how identical the behavior has been lately. And im just sitting on the sidelines for all of it :/

Odd that we are red. Really don't get it.

 

[austinEV]

Odd that we are red. Really don't get it.

Yeah this is annoying. Under performing the market lately for no reason.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla Motors is looking for a Vice President, Sales for Japan and Korea, focused on all of Tesla’s direct sales activities in the Japanese and Korean markets:

(link)

Is Korea the next big market for Tesla? - Fortune

 

[Hogfighter]

Yeah this is annoying. Under performing the market lately for no reason.

I tend to think that the shorts are adding to their positions at this valuation, hence the price movement lately. Won't last forever.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Looks like shorts want to push it under 50 day moving average. They may or may not succeed. If we see 265 again, that is bad news for them and they know it. Epic battle. Will be interesting to see who wins. As always, my bet is on Tesla, not against.

 

[CyberDutchie]

rise in the premarket, wiped out early after open... for like the 4th day in a row. its almost comical how identical the behavior has been lately. And im just sitting on the sidelines for all of it :/

Yeah, whomever is buying pre-open should know by now that it's better to wait till about 1 hour into regular trading session for the bottom.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Looks like Intersolar has a live stream page...fingers crossed

05:45 pm - 06:20 pmIndustry Keynote Speaker
JB Straubel , Chief Technical Officer & Co-Founder , Tesla Motors , U.S.
Energy Storage for EVs and the Grid


As a co-founder and CTO of Tesla, JB oversees the technical and engineering design of the vehicles, charging systems, energy storage systems and software controls. JB will provide an introduction
to Tesla Energy, the new arm of Tesla developing the Powerwall Home Battery and Powerpack Commercial Battery and explain how these new products, in conjunction with uncompromised
electric vehicles and charging systems will ultimately enable a renewable energy economy.

intersolar - live streaming video powered by Livestream

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like Intersolar has a live stream page...fingers crossed
intersolar - live streaming video powered by Livestream

Thanks!
Awesome

 

[ev-enthusiast]

New report today from Trip Chowdhry: Tesla SUV Will Represent A 'Phenomenon' For The Company (link: benzinga).

In a report published Monday, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry reiterated an Overweight rating on shares of Tesla Motors with an unchanged $385 price target following a fresh round of checks.

Chowdhry noted that he spoke to 65 to 70 people to reach several key conclusions about Tesla's operations.

Tesla is scheduled to report its second quarter results on July 30 after market close.

 

[eepic]

Electracity is trolling both TSLA and SCTY threads. What else is new?

What's more likely: Elon and the Tesla team has been lying for several years straight or electricity is wrong?

Also Tesla being production constrained AND producing "according to plan" are not contradictory statements. In case you can't understand it let me explain what Tesla means by being production constrained: "We are producing as many car as we can while maintaining the quality we want and we are increasing our production as fast as logistics and quality control allows us. There is enough demand that were it possible for us to build more cars per unit of time we could without emptying the line of people wanting to buy one, but it's not possible given the reasons above".

Whoa hang on - Electracity could have a point, I found his link to the other thread very interesting myself. You can disagree but he is clearly not trolling, that's an unfair and unnecessary accusation.

All else the same, if North American order to production completion turnaround is 2-3 weeks, down from much longer before, it could indicate we're less production constrained in the short term. Yes, I fully understand TM is production constrained in the medium term - they could pull levers to increase demand, but there would be lead time to generating those orders.

While I think they're prioritizing NA right now so there is as few in transit as possible with the MX reveal (updates to the S?), it's nonetheless possible the backlog is being cleared. You can disagree, but its a plausible theory that is definitely not troll content.

 

[MikeC]

Is a July 30 ER accurate or speculation?

- - - Updated - - -

Looks like Tesla will soon expand to Korea.
Tesla Motors is currently looking for a Vice President, Sales for Japan and Korea.
The position is focused on all of Tesla’s direct sales activities in the Japanese and Korean markets:

(job description: link)

Gee, I wonder how Fortune figured that out: Tesla International Expansion into Korea