Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

Whoa hang on - Electracity could have a point, I found his link to the other thread very interesting myself. You can disagree but he is clearly not trolling, that's an unfair and unnecessary accusation.

All else the same, if North American order to production completion turnaround is 2-3 weeks, down from much longer before, it could indicate we're less production constrained in the short term. Yes, I fully understand TM is production constrained in the medium term - they could pull levers to increase demand, but there would be lead time to generating those orders.

While I think they're prioritizing NA right now so there is as few in transit as possible with the MX reveal (updates to the S?), it's nonetheless possible the backlog is being cleared. You can disagree, but its a plausible theory that is definitely not troll content.

I defer to this post:
Website wait times for delivery change - Page 46

Which was itself posted 2 weeks ago (so things have likely shifted a bit since then), but at that point it was August for NA and Sept for EU, Oct for China, and Nov for RHD markets. I would also point out that Elon has also stated that their ideal spot on wait times would be measured in weeks not months (I want to say 4-6 weeks is what they are targeting) so if things are dumping down to 2-3 weeks in NA and it isn't because of a demand issue, I would also wager that it might have something to do with the Model X. I see one of two things:

1: Tesla is pushing MS out the door faster than they would have otherwise because they are trying to give more allocation to the Model X later in the quarter
2: The average consumer is aware of the impending Model X release and are hoping for something new with the Model S soon

Maybe a bit of a combination of both???

Either way, I wouldn't be concerned. There is still enough of a lead time that your car isn't instantly going to production on the date of confirmation, so there must be *some amount* of backlog still.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

New report today from Trip Chowdhry: Tesla SUV Will Represent A 'Phenomenon' For The Company (link: benzinga).

I don't care whether its all soccer moms or not, as long as the X sells. I would LOVE to have enough cash to purchase one. I could fly back and forth to Banff in the winter snowboarding with the family and it wouldn't cost me anything in gas. Plus it will no doubt have the best safety record of any SUV.

 

[eepic]

I defer to this post:
Website wait times for delivery change - Page 46

Which was itself posted 2 weeks ago (so things have likely shifted a bit since then), but at that point it was August for NA and Sept for EU, Oct for China, and Nov for RHD markets. I would also point out that Elon has also stated that their ideal spot on wait times would be measured in weeks not months (I want to say 4-6 weeks is what they are targeting) so if things are dumping down to 2-3 weeks in NA and it isn't because of a demand issue, I would also wager that it might have something to do with the Model X. I see one of two things:

1: Tesla is pushing MS out the door faster than they would have otherwise because they are trying to give more allocation to the Model X later in the quarter
2: The average consumer is aware of the impending Model X release and are hoping for something new with the Model S soon

Maybe a bit of a combination of both???

Either way, I wouldn't be concerned. There is still enough of a lead time that your car isn't instantly going to production on the date of confirmation, so there must be *some amount* of backlog still.

Thanks. Fwiw I agree that it's probably MX related, but I just felt uncomfortable that someone was being called a troll just for posting a plausible pessimistic view.

Just to further your case, I'm thinking maybe things like new options, features, HW updates, colours will be available for the MS when the MX is unveiled. It sucks for those who got their car recently, but it really sucks for those with an "old spec" that they're still waiting for a boat to deliver... thus the prioritization of NA leading up to the unveil.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

We're about 4 bucks away from another breakout. Keep pressing those shorts. Good job!

 

[Johan]

Whoa hang on - Electracity could have a point, I found his link to the other thread very interesting myself. You can disagree but he is clearly not trolling, that's an unfair and unnecessary accusation.

All else the same, if North American order to production completion turnaround is 2-3 weeks, down from much longer before, it could indicate we're less production constrained in the short term. Yes, I fully understand TM is production constrained in the medium term - they could pull levers to increase demand, but there would be lead time to generating those orders.

While I think they're prioritizing NA right now so there is as few in transit as possible with the MX reveal (updates to the S?), it's nonetheless possible the backlog is being cleared. You can disagree, but its a plausible theory that is definitely not troll content.

Well before the whole exchange got moved to snippiness I did ask how he defines "production constrained" but never heard back...

So OK lets say Tesla are "less" production constrained than before. But they are still production constrained, no? My definition of no longer being it would be to have untapped capacity for building vehicles but not enough demand (i.e. the moment you are no longer production constrained you become, per definition, demand constrained).

Shorter wait times is desirable.

 

[SteveG3]

Is a July 30 ER accurate or speculation?

I'd be very surprised if this was accurate. In the 3 years I've been following the company, I've seen various misstatements about earnings dates, but not once have I seen an earnings report come out without going at least a 5 or 6 days into the second month following the close of the quarter.

 

[dha]

I'd be very surprised if this was accurate. In the 3 years I've been following the company, I've seen various misstatements about earnings dates, but not once have I seen an earnings report come out without going at least a 5 or 6 days into the second month following the close of the quarter.

Q2 earnings were on 7/31 last year and 7/25 in 2012.

 

[SteveG3]

Q2 earnings were on 7/31 last year and 7/25 in 2012.

thanks dha, and my apologies re any confusion... I'd not noticed that break in the pattern.

 

[MikeC]

I'd be very surprised if this was accurate. In the 3 years I've been following the company, I've seen various misstatements about earnings dates, but not once have I seen an earnings report come out without going at least a 5 or 6 days into the second month following the close of the quarter.

Looking back, in 2014 it was July 31; in 2013 it was August 7; in 2012 it was July 25.

I think this is more likely speculation because the source is Trip Chaudry.

 

[dha]

thanks dha, and my apologies re any confusion... I'd not noticed that break in the pattern.

No problemo. Also, my broker (ETrade) is showing the date as 7/29 and Zacks has it as 7/30. I usually find that one of these two is correct for earnings date predictions. Though I'm somewhat biased as I'm holding 7/31 calls.

 

[MikeC]

No problemo. Also, my broker (ETrade) is showing the date as 7/29 and Zacks has it as 7/30. I usually find that one of these two is correct for earnings date predictions. Though I'm somewhat biased as I'm holding 7/31 calls.

If that's the case, the market is underpricing Jul 31 calls.

 

[aznt1217]

Well before the whole exchange got moved to snippiness I did ask how he defines "production constrained" but never heard back...

So OK lets say Tesla are "less" production constrained than before. But they are still production constrained, no? My definition of no longer being it would be to have untapped capacity for building vehicles but not enough demand (i.e. the moment you are no longer production constrained you become, per definition, demand constrained).

Shorter wait times is desirable.

The fact that there is still a wait time is... constraint. What Electracity was implying was that there is no production constraint and he continuously used the same data point that people were getting earlier deliveries. It can mean a few things:

1. Focus on NA is heavier
2. Logistics for TM got better (may just be the case)
3. Significantly increased output

Not even sure what he was getting at so I just filtered out his posts.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

If that's the case, the market is underpricing Jul 31 calls.

Might be a good trade to buy some then. If we get some pre-ER runup and it's in August they should at least breakeven if you pick the right strike. If the ER does end up to be sooner you get extra premium for the IV as well and could sell pre-ER for a good enough profit.

 

[jhm]

I defer to this post:
Website wait times for delivery change - Page 46

Which was itself posted 2 weeks ago (so things have likely shifted a bit since then), but at that point it was August for NA and Sept for EU, Oct for China, and Nov for RHD markets. I would also point out that Elon has also stated that their ideal spot on wait times would be measured in weeks not months (I want to say 4-6 weeks is what they are targeting) so if things are dumping down to 2-3 weeks in NA and it isn't because of a demand issue, I would also wager that it might have something to do with the Model X. I see one of two things:

1: Tesla is pushing MS out the door faster than they would have otherwise because they are trying to give more allocation to the Model X later in the quarter
2: The average consumer is aware of the impending Model X release and are hoping for something new with the Model S soon

Maybe a bit of a combination of both???

Either way, I wouldn't be concerned. There is still enough of a lead time that your car isn't instantly going to production on the date of confirmation, so there must be *some amount* of backlog still.

Another hypothesis is simply batching. If Tesla groups similarly configured order into a batch, then a lucky customer could submit their order just in time to be made in the most recent batch. Meanwhile, a thousand orders placed before that lucky one are still waiting many weeks for their batches to come up. So anecdotes like the on electracity pointed to can be very misleading. It's not the order that get cuts to the front of the line that matters, it's the order that has been waiting the longest that tells you how backed up everything is.

 

[FluxCap]

I'd go with Heaven on Wheels, but the byline seems accurate.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I live in Calgary. I can tell you there are ALOT of people who are very frightened of Tesla. Just imagine all the $ being paid to activists to spread fear about this revolutionary company at every opportunity. I wonder how long it will be before somebody on social media creates a mechanism for people to show support towards Tesla and it's goals. Millenials have had enough of oil and want to support Tesla. Its obvious.

As George Bush would say....."your either for us or against us." Lets have a Facebook button where you can draw your line in the sand.

 

[jhm]

IT IS the beginning of the end for oil.

 

[Drax7]

I hope so too, burning 93 million barrels of crude oil per day is not a good thing for the environment .
Solar and electric is so neat.

 

[mejojo]

Solar and electric is so neat.

If/when coal can be removed from the electric equation, it would be magnitudes neater.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Tesla Model S A Terrorizes Oil Indusry −