Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[hockeythug]

1.4m recall for Chrysler. If only there was a way to patch a cars software over the air.

 

[MartinAustin]

No surprise there. Lot of wealthy Chinese saw a third of their net worth disappear in a matter of weeks.

Right.

In other news, FCA just announced they are recalling 1.4 million vehicles in the USA to fix a software issue related to the recent hacking article published in Wired.

Tesla meanwhile are not recalling any vehicles, but they're still fixing software issues.

--- Update ---

I understand FCA is going to send out 1.4 million USB sticks to customers, rather than have them come in to dealers. Talk about a cluster. What about all the people who have moved house since buying their car? What if people don't bother doing the upgrade? What an unprofitable mess.

 

[AlMc]

Earnings come out on 8-5, 12 days from now. Any investors care to comment on this 12 day window versus whether or not Tesla opens up the design studio for X reservation holders before then?

Seems like the design studio will give a lot of insight into what options and pricing will be for the X. That has the potential, if not certainty, to be able to cause a large stock price swing. As we get closer and closer to the often stated 3rd quarter X delivery target, the fact that the design studio is not open becomes the bigger and bigger elephant in the room. I would hope that it opens up before the conference call, but maybe Tesla will either open it up the day of the earnings release, or announce on 8-5 when the X reservation holders can configure their car. We have 12 days to figure it out.

Fool says design studio could open up any day:

Preorders for New Tesla Could Begin Any Day Now -- The Motley Fool

RT

My opinion on the model X timing. EM will announce on the ERQ2 CC that they will be starting production on the X (Founder's series so no design studio..all configured privately) and first deliveries will commence in September. The design studio for Sigs will open in late August with first deliveries in October and that production will start at 50/week, ramping up to 500/week by year's end. Totals in 2015 for the X: production 3,500; deliveries 2,500 (3 weeks to ship to east coast)

 

[dalalsid]

My opinion on the model X timing. EM will announce on the ERQ2 CC that they will be starting production on the X (Founder's series so no design studio..all configured privately) and first deliveries will commence in September. The design studio for Sigs will open in late August with first deliveries in October and that production will start at 50/week, ramping up to 500/week by year's end. Totals in 2015 for the X: production 3,500; deliveries 2,500 (3 weeks to ship to east coast)

This will cause them to miss delivery guidance of 55k unless their S ramp is going extreme gangbusters, better than the last 6 Qs.

 

[pGo]

My opinion on the model X timing. EM will announce on the ERQ2 CC that they will be starting production on the X (Founder's series so no design studio..all configured privately) and first deliveries will commence in September. The design studio for Sigs will open in late August with first deliveries in October and that production will start at 50/week, ramping up to 500/week by year's end. Totals in 2015 for the X: production 3,500; deliveries 2,500 (3 weeks to ship to east coast)

I have similar thoughts. I am not sure if Tesla will explicitly call this out in this report vs q3 report where they will have more clarity on the situation.

I know these short term target miss are nothing when you have such lofty long term goals but WS won't like two yearly miss in a row.

 

[Krugerrand]

And LG and various legacy OEMs do question Tesla's leadership. They just say Tesla charges more for more battery but not technically difficult. Ford CEO says they took Model S apart put it back together and drove it again and that they could build a Model S too. Not saying that I agree with them just saying legacy automakers do not agree that Tesla has a technology moat.

Well, what else are they going to say: We took it apart and couldn't get it back together again? Or we took it apart and are entirely confused and out of our league? The standard answer will always be, 'Meh, no big deal. We could do this right now if we wanted to. We just don't want to.'

You do bring up an interesting point about losing control. It's quite possible they're thinking of that, but I have my doubts. I'm not convinced any of them can think past the end of their noses.

 

[Drax7]

@AIMc,

Not sure how you reach this assertion , even Elon probably does not know what to expect.

 

[mejojo]

...production will start at 50/week, ramping up to 500/week by year's end. Totals in 2015 for the X: production 3,500; deliveries 2,500 (3 weeks to ship to east coast)

What is your opinion based on?

 

[eloder]

I'd be pretty concerned if the MX configurator does not go online this month as was promised/stated many times. Even though they're reaffirming deliveries starting on-time, I feel like any slips can be indicative of last-minute production problems. (I'm also still concerned about changing mules still being tested on public roads so close to production.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'd be pretty concerned if the MX configurator does not go online this month as was promised/stated many times. Even though they're reaffirming deliveries starting on-time, I feel like any slips can be indicative of last-minute production problems. (I'm also still concerned about changing mules still being tested on public roads so close to production.

Tesla still has Model S mules testing on the roads today. What's to be concerned about? It's not like testing stops once the car is in production.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'd be pretty concerned if the MX configurator does not go online this month as was promised/stated many times.

I don't recall any Tesla communique about MX configurator going online this month. Can you link to the Tesla release on that? I've certainly read several posts on this forum predicting that's when it would happen.

 

[AlMc]

@AIMc,

Not sure how you reach this assertion , even Elon probably does not know what to expect.

What is your opinion based on?

No facts...If I had facts I would say 'I know'..It is an opinion which is basically what everyone else has been asserting. Opinions generally come from some knowledge of the past coupled with conjecture on the future. We know TM has missed on delivery timing (thus delivery numbers) in the past..both Roadster and S initial builds. The X has 70% different parts/components versus the S. Some new suppliers (possibly..think Gorilla Glass), a brand new production line (line #2), and a new shipping method (by train...saves money but not time over trucking).

 

[anon]

I don't recall any Tesla communique about MX configurator going online this month. Can you link to the Tesla release on that? I've certainly read several posts on this forum predicting that's when it would happen.

Elon mentioned it during the last earnings report, but I think it was qualified with 'probably', if I remember correctly.

 

[Lump]

@Al, I would expect truck shipping for MX Sigs & other low reservation holders then a gradual transition to rail, these folks have waited long enough.

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon mentioned it during the last earnings report, but I think it was qualified with 'probably', if I remember correctly.

So it really wasn't a promise. It was a guesstimation made a few months ago based on the information Elon had at that time. Meaning there's no reason to be concerned if in fact it doesn't come online within the next week (the month of July).

I know that at some point it would become something to be really and truly concerned about from a short-term investment standpoint, but I'm thinking that's not for another 6 weeks, give or take.

 

[chickensevil]

So it really wasn't a promise. It was a guesstimation made a few months ago based on the information Elon had at that time. Meaning there's no reason to be concerned if in fact it doesn't come online within the next week (the month of July).

I know that at some point it would become something to be really and truly concerned about from a short-term investment standpoint, but I'm thinking that's not for another 6 weeks, give or take.

Yeah, if they are holding back the design studio it would likely be to try to keep a lid on features of the Model X for as long as possible. Which has always been their stated goal on being tight lipped about it. At some point they have to open it up before the actual release of the car because people need to pay for the product, but people are already putting down a deposit and finalizing their orders for the Model S in a short timeframe, so I wouldn't be too worried as long as they continue to stick to "q3 deliveries".

 

[Lump]

Apple Wanted To Use BMW i3 As Basis For Its Own Electric Car: Report

CEO Tim Cook and other senior Apple executives visited the i3 assembly facility in Leipzig, Germany, during a fact-finding process and broader discussions over technology cooperation between the two companies.

 

[MikeC]

Apple Wanted To Use BMW i3 As Basis For Its Own Electric Car: Report

Maybe Apple was thinking about using an i3 body with a Tesla drivetrain and Apple interior/electronics.

In any case, I disagree with this statement from the article: "Meanwhile, plug-in vehicles already represent a higher percentage of BMW's U.S. sales than they do for any other carmaker."

 

[doggusfluffy]

Looking tall and someone is getting a glimpse inside!
Model X in Gilroy Supercharger - Imgur

 

[AlMc]

Well, this won't help the market: H. Clinto will raise C.Gains taxes, if elected. Being the 'front runner' WS will not be pleased