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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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i was going to say the same thing. It's an interesting phenomenon. On the rare occasion I've been without any bullish positions in the last 2-3 years I immediately start seeing all the negative and convincing myself, almost hoping, that the stock price will drop to justify my lack of holding a position. Human nature though most won't admit to it!


This is exactly how I am feeling. The phenomenon is called human nature I guess. I sold out a bit higher than where it is now. I suddenly start to see the bearish arguments although I am a long term bull. I am more upset about some of the public relation issues going on as opposed to Model X delays and whatnot. I have no doubt that Tesla will succeed. It is much more fun being a bull than a bear......that is for sure. I feel better being a stock holder and being positive than being without stock and being negative. All the best!
 
This is exactly how I am feeling. The phenomenon is called human nature I guess. I sold out a bit higher than where it is now. I suddenly start to see the bearish arguments although I am a long term bull. I am more upset about some of the public relation issues going on as opposed to Model X delays and whatnot. I have no doubt that Tesla will succeed. It is much more fun being a bull than a bear......that is for sure. I feel better being a stock holder and being positive than being without stock and being negative. All the best!
Yes just as guilty with W (way fair). Poor report convinced I could get it at 27.5. Didn't go below 28. After another month went by down to 28 but still stubborn (or stupid) not to increase my limit price. Now over 52. Oh well
 
This is exactly how I am feeling. The phenomenon is called human nature I guess. I sold out a bit higher than where it is now. I suddenly start to see the bearish arguments although I am a long term bull. I am more upset about some of the public relation issues going on as opposed to Model X delays and whatnot. I have no doubt that Tesla will succeed. It is much more fun being a bull than a bear......that is for sure. I feel better being a stock holder and being positive than being without stock and being negative. All the best!


What it really boils down to is that people in general subconciously try to convince themselves that what they want to be true, is true, which obviously makes sense. Same concept is shown in religion, it is highly illogical, but a convenient truth (afterlife and all).
 
Elon is the only nut ceo that buys his secondary stock offering, that's
pure cognitive dissonance in my head.

That's an interesting sentence right there. I'd venture that in his head, it all makes perfect, logical and harmonic sense, but because so few of us think like Elon Musk, we can't wrap our brains around most of it. Have you read about the school he started and how the kids going there are being taught? Now that's some fascinating stuff.

Oh yeah, short term: um...hold on to your hats.
 
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-tesla-seeks-to-raise-about-500-million-through-share-sale-2015-8
However, on a conference call with analysts after Tesla reported second-quarter earnings, Musk admitted that if the company were planning an equity raise, now would be the time. Here's an exchange with Bank of America Merrill Lynch auto analyst John Murphy from the call (thanks to Seeking Alpha for the transcript).

"[W]hen you look at the cash burn and how the capital market sometimes shift very quickly, it just seems like an opportune time to take advantage of what you might need in the future, so that's why we're asking," Murphy said.

"[W]e're in the same sort of mind frame as you are," Musk responded.

At the time, Musk sounded as if he were grudgingly acknowledging Murphy's point. But it now looks as if he was telegraphing the equity raise, without getting into any specifics. And the bottom line is that is a genuinely ideal time for Tesla to sell equity, even if to a certain extent that's an admission that there isn't enough money coming in to mitigate the many risks that the company faces over the next few years.

In fact, Musk has repeatedly characterized equity raises as a strategic way to get ahead of risks to the electric-car startup....
 
@ Sub, Been there a million times , it might work half the time, though ex ante no way of knowing.
and then I see Buffett hold a position for 50 years and become the most successful
ever.


Elon is the only nut ceo that buys his secondary stock offering, that's
pure cognitive dissonance in my head.

Too bad now he is holding Utilities and is the biggest threat to Solar City right now, It will be the end of Buffetts long string of winning picks.
 
This is exactly how I am feeling. The phenomenon is called human nature I guess. I sold out a bit higher than where it is now. I suddenly start to see the bearish arguments although I am a long term bull. I am more upset about some of the public relation issues going on as opposed to Model X delays and whatnot. I have no doubt that Tesla will succeed. It is much more fun being a bull than a bear......that is for sure. I feel better being a stock holder and being positive than being without stock and being negative. All the best!

You are exactly who I was thinking of when I wrote that post. I would joke with my wife that I couldn't believe I was rooting against Tesla (when I didn't have a bullish position) and hoping something bad would happen (f**e) so that I could buy my shares back cheaper. I've had my hand slapped too many times trying to time short term movements and it's too stressful, I've for the most part given up on that except for the occasional lottery ticket play with some pocket change. I prefer to play the long term and enjoy my life. I do hold leaps and have one Sept call right now but I typically buy deep ITM as a stock replacement so i'm not losing much time value on anything. Though I prefer the stock go up from here, wouldn't hurt my feelings if you guys got a bit of a discount short term to buy back in. I've had some cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a big drop but so far it hasn't come. I don't consider where we are now since earnings a big drop in the TSLA world.
 
If the secondary offering of shares will be on August 19th, will the various vested interests be trying to push prices up or down before then? Is Tesla prohibited from doing anything to manipulate stock price (say, timing the Model X design studio) before the offering?

They will try to keep it over $242 for sure. Remember, they also get free call options, which will be worthless if SP goes lower. And they get $4 discount on the $242 price as well. They are sell-side now. The higher the SP the more profit they will make. I don't know if Tesla is prohibited from helping them out :)
 
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You are exactly who I was thinking of when I wrote that post. I would joke with my wife that I couldn't believe I was rooting against Tesla (when I didn't have a bullish position) and hoping something bad would happen (f**e) so that I could buy my shares back cheaper. I've had my hand slapped too many times trying to time short term movements and it's too stressful, I've for the most part given up on that except for the occasional lottery ticket play with some pocket change. I prefer to play the long term and enjoy my life. I do hold leaps and have one Sept call right now but I typically buy deep ITM as a stock replacement so i'm not losing much time value on anything. Though I prefer the stock go up from here, wouldn't hurt my feelings if you guys got a bit of a discount short term to buy back in. I've had some cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a big drop but so far it hasn't come. I don't consider where we are now since earnings a big drop in the TSLA world.

LOL. Well I am going to try and be more positive. I made the right call by selling out but as I told my wife, that could change real quick. That is why I will be buying back in sooner than later. Mr. Arsenal will be more cheery from this point onwards! More fun to be a bull than bear!! If I was dropped on a desert island would I rather be there with one of the bulls on here or Anton the Tesla basher? I think I know the answer to that.
 
Good point. Anyone know whether MS or GS are the underwriters for the offering? If I remember correctly, they were last time. If so, I doubt we see a note from them until after Aug 19.

From the filing document at http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312515290590/d84889d424b5.htm

The underwriters expect to deliver the shares of common stock against payment in New York, New York on or about August 19, 2015.







Godman, Sachs & Co.
Morgan Stanley J.P. Morgan Deutsche Bank Securities


BofA Merrill Lynch

Wells Fargo Securities
 
From the filing document at http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312515290590/d84889d424b5.htmThe underwriters expect to deliver the shares of common stock against payment in New York, New York on or about August 19, 2015.
Godman, Sachs & Co. Morgan Stanley J.P. Morgan Deutsche Bank Securities
BofA Merrill LynchWells Fargo Securities
Buying or selling a U.S. Stock takes 3 business days to settle (T+3).I would assume the transactions are all done and now it's the 3 business days until August 19th when the shares are delivered/settled electronically via DTC.
 
From the filing: "To the extent that the underwriters sell more than 2,694,934 shares of common stock, the underwriters have the option to purchase up to an additional 404,239 shares from us at the offering price less the underwriting discount."

Offering price - expenses:
Offering price
$242.00

$652,174,028
Underwriting discount (1)
$3.5890

$9,672,118
Proceeds, before offering expenses, to Tesla
$ 238.4110

$ 642,501,910
So the underwriters essentially have a call option with a strike price of $238.41!!! So does this mean the underwriters now have a major incentive to drive the price as high as possible? At the bare minimum, they will want it to stay above $238.411.

Am I reading this correctly? If so, I think its time to buy some short term calls or sell some short term puts covering the 30 days of the option.
 
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From the filing: "To the extent that the underwriters sell more than 2,694,934 shares of common stock, the underwriters have the option to purchase up to an additional 404,239 shares from us at the offering price less the underwriting discount."

Offering price - expenses:
Offering price
$242.00

$652,174,028
Underwriting discount (1)
$3.5890

$9,672,118
Proceeds, before offering expenses, to Tesla
$ 238.4110

$ 642,501,910
So the underwriters essentially have a call option with a strike price of $238.41!!! So does this mean the underwriters now have a major incentive to drive the price as high as possible? At the bare minimum, they will want it to stay above $238.411.

Am I reading this correctly? If so, I think its time to buy some short term calls or sell some short term puts covering the 30 days of the option.

This is how I read it. The underwriters have a call option. They've got the challenge of selling 2.7M stock. If they can trade in such a way as not to drive down the price of the, but allow it to climb as much as possible, then the call option is their reward. This motivates the underwriter's traders to fetch the highest price possible for the shares offered.

I'm not sure that this create a special opportunity to buy 30 day call options. It seems pretty hard to push the price up while selling 2.7M shares.

Also it might seem the underwriter's call option would motivate analysts at GS and MS not to talk the stock down. In law, there is supposed to be a wall of separation between the traders and analysts at GS and MS. So in principle, the analysts are independent. Even so, it's probably prudent for these analysts not to say anything good or bad while this call is in play.
 
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This is how I read it. The underwriters have a call option. They've got the challenge of selling 2.7M stock. If they can trade in such a way as not to drive down the price of the, but allow it to climb as much as possible, then the call option is their reward. This motivates the underwriter's traders to fetch the highest price possible for the shares offered.

I'm not sure that this create a special opportunity to buy 30 day call options. It seems pretty hard to push the price up while selling 2.7M shares.

Also it might seem the underwriter's call option would motivate analysts at GS and MS not to talk the stock down. In law, there is supposed to be a wall of separation between the traders and analysts at GS and MS. So in principle, the analysts are independent. Even so, it's probably prudent for these analysts not to say anything good or bad while this call is in play.

But the 2.7 million shares they're selling are sold at a fixed price? Or am I misunderstanding something? My thought is that the fixed price effectively stabilizes TSLA at that price as the offering is being sold.

Also since there is really, by law, supposed to be no connection at all between analysis and investment of a firm it would be a non issue if say Adam Jonas came out with a very bullish note a few days after the offering had been sold out. In fact I think this scenario is rather likely to take place.
 
Broken record AlMc here: To further the intrigue...Max pain for August 21st options: $252.50...............Certainly this can (and probably will) change as the week progresses...but interesting as it is $10 higher than last Friday.....
 
Broken record AlMc here: To further the intrigue...Max pain for August 21st options: $252.50...............Certainly this can (and probably will) change as the week progresses...but interesting as it is $10 higher than last Friday.....

Yes those who sold $250 Aug21st calls the day before the announcement sure made certain profit if they sat on insider information about the offering. Hmm, I wonder if these calls were abnormally low in price the last 1-2 days before the announcement? If so it'd be a medium strong indicator of insider trading.
 
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