Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[MartinAustin]

Tesla's Fremont Factory Closed After Crane Knocks Down Power Line, Causes Outage | NBC Bay Area

If the factory roof was covered in solar panels and they were using their own battery technology, they probably wouldn't be suffering right now.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm sure the beta users will be under an NDA. We haven't heard from a single one in the past.

Exactly. We should in theory hear nothing about this August 15th release, including whether it happened or not.

 

[Curt Renz]

If the factory roof was covered in solar panels and they were using their own battery technology, they probably wouldn't be suffering right now.

Indeed, it's a lesson that demonstrates the problem with relying on the electrical grid. The publicity generated from the news in favor of solar panels and energy storage should more than compensate for losing a day's production.

 

[jhm]

Indeed, it's a lesson that demonstrates the problem with relying on the electrical grid. The publicity generated from the news in favor of solar panels and energy storage should more than compensate for losing a day's production.

But are they actually operating in island mode. If so, it's a triumph. If not, they just demonstrate that it would be a nice thing to have at some point in the future, but not available now.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tesla finally surpassed 700k Twitter followers. The number is currently growing by 700-1000 every day, up from 400-600 a few months ago. At this rate, by the end of 2015, Tesla will have more Twitter followers than BMW, and will surpass Porsche by the beginning of 2016.

Also, this was yesterday.

CPUC Thought Leaders Series

There is supposed to be a video webcast on the website, but the link isn't working.

August 13th, 2015, 2 p.m. – 4 p.m.: A panel discussion of the options for a 21st century electric sector. The Advanced Energy Economy Institute (AEEI) convened its industry members to produce a position paper outlining a broad vision for California’s future electric system, which will be released on August 11th. On August 13th several of the paper’s key working group members will participate in a panel discussion to examine how stakeholders in California can move forward in a more integrated fashion to achieve some of the industry’s objectives as well as the state’s important energy and environmental policy objectives.

• WHERE: CPUC Auditorium, 505 Van Ness Ave., San Francisco; also available in real-time and archived via video webcast.
• WHO:
  • Peter Rive, Founder, Chief Technology Officer, SolarCity
  • Tom Starrs, Vice President, Market Strategy and Policy, SunPower
  • Ted Ko, Director of Policy, Stem
  • Dave O’Brien, Director of Regulatory Strategy and Compliance, Bridge Energy
  • Jeff Lo, Vice President of Business Development, Gridco Systems
  • Elisabeth Brinton, Vice President, Corporate Strategy Officer, Pacific Gas and Electric Company
    • Introduction by Steve Chadima, Senior Vice President, Communications & Director of California Initiatives, Advanced Energy Economy
    • Moderated by Tony Brunello, President and Founder, More than Smart

 

[austinEV]

I am joining the short term doom and gloom club. I just sold some Jan/16 calls I bought when the stock was in the 180's. So I did well with those (although should of sold pre earnings and would of done 25% better or more). Anyhow I really think the next quarterly meeting will be bad , strictly do to a delay in model X. So I wanted some cash around to buy when that happens. I think traders who want the stock cheap will pile in driving the stock down , knowing that in 6 months times, a delay in model x really means nothing. I see the stock declining even if they hit 50 000 deliveries this year. On the flip side is if the model X gets the best press ever, or if there is a 'surprise' built in which electrifies the press this could be a bad move. Even if the model x is amazing I do not see the market picking up on it for a few weeks post launch when some magazines and reporters actually get a chance to drive it, which i feel will be way after Q3. I do not feel the 'configuration screen of the X appearing will bump the stock significantly, like a lot of people here do.

I was a Q2 Gloomer. Now it is an interesting debate about which vectors will win out. On the Gloom side, delays and small numbers of X seem to be likely. On the Bull side, the release of the X, once we can assume it is a great follow up to the Model S that will be well received by critics, will provide lift. Some Gloom was cash risk, which this cash raise seems to target so I would argue that is off the table.

My eye is more sharply focused on Feb/March of next year. That is when excitement will start building for impressive X delivery results, and a very profitable quarter, because it will be designed to be profitable. So the April 6 announcement of deliveries, and then mid May Q1 ER report. AROUND that time I expect a new push for ATH. Between now and then... hammock time, choppy time, dunno. A sawtooth between 230 and 260 might be my guess.

I think its a good time to hold some shares and cash, easy on the options bull or bear (or write some options).

My feelings at the moment. discuss.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The National Clean Energy Summit is on August 24th. The following people will be speaking. The press release mentions additional people may be added to this list. There are some people mentioned as speakers on the agenda that are not on this list.

This event would be an excellent time for large product and investment related announcements.
Every person on the list is invested directly or indirectly in Elon Musk.

Press Releases - Clean Energy Summit 8.0 | August 24, 2015

President Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States
U.S. Senator Harry Reid
John Podesta, Former Counselor to President Barack Obama
Secretary Ernest Moniz, Secretary of EnergyDan Klaich, Chancellor of the Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE)
Diarmuid O'Connell, Vice President of Business Development at Tesla Motors
Jamie Evans, Managing Director at Panasonic Eco Solutions
Dr. Ellen Williams, Director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E)
Thomas Voss, Chairman of Smart Wires
Amy Ericson, Country President for the United States at Alstom
Susan Kennedy, CEO and Board Member of Advanced Microgrid Solutions
Neera Tanden, President of the Center for American Progress
Bill Ritter, Former Governor of Colorado
Antonio Villaraigosa, Former Mayor of Los Angeles
Nancy Pfund, Founder and Managing Partner of DBL Investors
Geisha Williams, President of Electric Operations at Pacific Gas and Electric Company

 

[jhm]

How many people thought Tesla would wait until the next big ATH before raising capital? Would not that very expectation dampen enthusiasm whenever we might approach a new ATH? Tesla may have done us a huge favor by not playing that game.

 

[FANGO]

A quick note, if oil went to $1 a barrel, congress would get off their ass and very actively raise gas taxes to pay for infrastructure. You can debate at what price levels and what tax amounts, but no way in hell would policy makers let that opportunity go.

They've had this opportunity for a year and nothing has happened. Gas tax was last raised in the 80s. It needs to be quintupled or more.

 

[AlMc]

I am starting to believe in the 'max pain' concept on days with no strong catalysts. 242.50

 

[eloder]

They've had this opportunity for a year and nothing has happened. Gas tax was last raised in the 80s. It needs to be quintupled or more.

Don't worry, they'll make it up by taxing EVs as if they were 15 mpg SUVs driving 20k miles a year like Georgia and many other anti-EV states.

 

[Drax7]

I was a Q2 Gloomer. Now it is an interesting debate about which vectors will win out. On the Gloom side, delays and small numbers of X seem to be likely. On the Bull side, the release of the X, once we can assume it is a great follow up to the Model S that will be well received by critics, will provide lift. Some Gloom was cash risk, which this cash raise seems to target so I would argue that is off the table.

My eye is more sharply focused on Feb/March of next year. That is when excitement will start building for impressive X delivery results, and a very profitable quarter, because it will be designed to be profitable. So the April 6 announcement of deliveries, and then mid May Q1 ER report. AROUND that time I expect a new push for ATH. Between now and then... hammock time, choppy time, dunno. A sawtooth between 230 and 260 might be my guess.




I think its a good time to hold some shares and cash, easy on the options bull or bear (or write some options).

My feelings at the moment. discuss.

this type of investing choreography rarely works.

 

[mmd]

Does anyone listen to 1590 KLIV radio in SF bay area? They are saying that Model X is expected to be revealed next month at a price of $55,000 to $75,000. The price sounds like a joke to me.

There is no text. You will have to listen online at KLIV 1590 Silicon Valley News | for a while for them to repeat the news about Model X spotted in slow lane going 60 mph.

(Edit): PS: What do people here expect the Model X to cost?

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

Does anyone listen to 1590 KLIV radio in SF bay area? They are saying that Model X is expected to be revealed next month at a price of $55,000 to $75,000. The price sounds like a joke to me.

There is no text. You will have to listen online at KLIV 1590 Silicon Valley News | for a while for them to repeat the news about Model X spotted in slow lane going 60 mph.

(Edit): PS: What do people here expect the Model X to cost?

My expectations for the Signature X loaded is close to $150k. Base X probably in the $70-80k range.

 

[jhm]

Does anyone listen to 1590 KLIV radio in SF bay area? They are saying that Model X is expected to be revealed next month at a price of $55,000 to $75,000. The price sounds like a joke to me.

There is no text. You will have to listen online at KLIV 1590 Silicon Valley News | for a while for them to repeat the news about Model X spotted in slow lane going 60 mph.

(Edit): PS: What do people here expect the Model X to cost?

After federal tax credit of $7500, CA credit $2500, and gas savings of $10,000, this sounds about right. It's $75k to $95k without incentives or options.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'd suggest not using radio stations as a primary source for anything. I'm expecting it will start around $65,000 and go up to $130,000-$140,000 for the Model with a 90kwh or 100kwh battery. I will be a bit surprised if there isn't the option for a Model X with a 100kwh battery. My guess is the weight of the Model X will significantly reduce the cost, due to incentives for heavy vehicles. It's possible the Model X will cost $55,000-$75,000 after incentives.

In many countries, vehicles similar to the Model X are subject to very significant taxes that can equal or exceed the retail price.

 

[Johan]

How many people thought Tesla would wait until the next big ATH before raising capital? Would not that very expectation dampen enthusiasm whenever we might approach a new ATH? Tesla may have done us a huge favor by not playing that game.

It's a very good thought. I guess we can call it a "responsible raise" a as opposed to an opportunistic one. (And yet I get what you meant by opportunistic).

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Does anybody see the shut down in the Fremont factory today having any significant impact, namely on vehicle production volume? My guess is no because the market did not seem to care

 

[vgrinshpun]

Elon on several occasions said that MX will cost in the upper single digit percent more than *comparable* MS.

Since cost of dual motor MS is from $75K to $140K, the MX will probably start a little higher than previous guesses - from low $80-ies, and will most likely top off at more than $150K

 

[Perfectlogic]

I was a Q2 Gloomer. Now it is an interesting debate about which vectors will win out. On the Gloom side, delays and small numbers of X seem to be likely. On the Bull side, the release of the X, once we can assume it is a great follow up to the Model S that will be well received by critics, will provide lift. Some Gloom was cash risk, which this cash raise seems to target so I would argue that is off the table.

My eye is more sharply focused on Feb/March of next year. That is when excitement will start building for impressive X delivery results, and a very profitable quarter, because it will be designed to be profitable. So the April 6 announcement of deliveries, and then mid May Q1 ER report. AROUND that time I expect a new push for ATH. Between now and then... hammock time, choppy time, dunno. A sawtooth between 230 and 260 might be my guess.

I think its a good time to hold some shares and cash, easy on the options bull or bear (or write some options).

My feelings at the moment. discuss.

I think it's fairly likely we will see the $180-$200 levels some time before Q1 earnings which I agree will be a positive catalyst. What I'm thinking is that it didn't really take much for the stock to hit $180 5 months ago, no major revisions, or any at all as I remember it of their guidance. Now we are looking at a lowered yearly guidance that might even not be met if there's problems with the X ramp, and more importantly a lowered guidance for next year. Last we heard was a 2k/week runrate at years end with a question mark regarding further growth in 2016, now its 1700/week for next year and no talk about further capacity upgrades.

Furthermore I am pretty sceptical about whether this 1700 weekly demand will even be reached this year. S demand is around a thousand a week and I doubt the X expands demand by 70%, I mean how different will the X really be from the S? Sure it will have some nice doors and an elevated seating, but the driving experience will be the same or slightly worse, all the other cool Tesla features will probably be the same, it will just be a slightly larger S, I don't think demand will increase more than 30-40% at most which will push the total demand to around 70k/year or 13-1400/week, will this be enough for wall street who was promised 2k/week? I'm not so sure. Obviously Tesla will still be able to produce and sell 1700/week due to the pent up X demand but it will be with a shrinking back log.

Just for the record I am still bullish long term and think demand will increase steadily for a long time, I just think Wall street might be dissapointed with the end of year demand should it be only 2/3rds of what was guided for not long ago.

 

[MartinAustin]

What do people here expect the Model X to cost?

$80,000+delivery with the 70KWh battery. I am also in the camp that thinks there is a larger, as-yet-unannounced battery, perhaps 105kWh.