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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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That correlation is no different than how Tesla and oil are following each other, as the general investor public thinks that EVs are inferior vehicles that people use to not pay for gas.
Eventually the market will realize the shift, and such events will properly follow one another.
Runarbt
Active Member
THIS! (I had thought about China, but of course this will have people fighting over the Model X imo.)
Buddyroe
Active Member
What I am hearing from most people about the falcon doors (not investors but potential buyers) is this comment: Tesla already has a tall task in educating the public about electric cars and showing them that not only do they perform better and last longer with less maintenance, but they also provide enough range to allow you to go anywhere your ICE vehicle can go. Add on to that now the task of convincing them that these funky doors are better than what we've used for 100 years and are used to. Then ask them to fork out over $100k for it.
A great - not so "un"-ordinary - SUV for around a starting price of $55k is what Tesla needed. There is only so many people that will buy an electric car, and only so many of them have $100k to spend. I'm willing to bet that very few "new" people will be brought in because of the X. It will just be people that would have looked at Tesla in general anyway. Granted, some will buy the X that would not have otherwise bought a Tesla, but MANY (or most) will buy the X that would have otherwise bought the S. In other words, I expect great cannibalization.
Again, I am sorry to be so negative. I just fail to see why SO much time and money went into something that is not a slam dunk for sure winner. The big companies can afford to do that. Not Tesla. We needed a sure-thing. The fact that it is electric was enough. Just how dang compelling did it have to be? Auto-opening doors? Come on. Why was time and money spent on that?
I sure hope a plane jane, 4 regular doors version (with no HEPA filter either) for around $55-$60k will be available some day soon. Tesla is surely going to need the additional sales it would generate.
I wish I could be a cheerleader today, but I'm afraid that my gut feeling isn't very good for the X. I see about 60-70% of the deposits being refunded. It could get very bad. Tesla missed the mark badly with this car (and spent a lot of money doing it). And I think Musk knows it based on his comments. And most non-owner investors know it too. Sorry.
A great - not so "un"-ordinary - SUV for around a starting price of $55k is what Tesla needed. There is only so many people that will buy an electric car, and only so many of them have $100k to spend. I'm willing to bet that very few "new" people will be brought in because of the X. It will just be people that would have looked at Tesla in general anyway. Granted, some will buy the X that would not have otherwise bought a Tesla, but MANY (or most) will buy the X that would have otherwise bought the S. In other words, I expect great cannibalization.
Again, I am sorry to be so negative. I just fail to see why SO much time and money went into something that is not a slam dunk for sure winner. The big companies can afford to do that. Not Tesla. We needed a sure-thing. The fact that it is electric was enough. Just how dang compelling did it have to be? Auto-opening doors? Come on. Why was time and money spent on that?
I sure hope a plane jane, 4 regular doors version (with no HEPA filter either) for around $55-$60k will be available some day soon. Tesla is surely going to need the additional sales it would generate.
I wish I could be a cheerleader today, but I'm afraid that my gut feeling isn't very good for the X. I see about 60-70% of the deposits being refunded. It could get very bad. Tesla missed the mark badly with this car (and spent a lot of money doing it). And I think Musk knows it based on his comments. And most non-owner investors know it too. Sorry.
Sorry, but I have to ask for a source on Tesla missing the mark badly. I haven't seen any negative media reviews. I haven't heard significant talk of cancellations in the X forums - and certainly nothing close to 60-70%. Personally it looks fantastic but my opinion does not really matter. I still feel like we are living in different universes the way you are talking. And lets not forget the competitors run on gas which requires frequent trips to gas stations and all the other disadvantages of an ICE.
The Falcon doors are marketing for the future vehicles. They are cool. I think they will get plenty of buyers at this price to build up credibility so they can raise capital and release a great, more basic, CUV which they already said they will do on the Model 3 platform.
Its not even about being a cheerleader, you're just using the wrong comp base. Look up everything in its class that's selling like hot cakes: X6, X5M, GL, G, upper end Cayennes, etc. There will be minimal cannibalization. I said it before and I'll say it again, not everybody wants an SUV.
The X wasn't meant to go mass market and neither was the S. These were meant to be cash flow generators to finance the model 3. Why you think 60-70% deposits is going to be refunded is ludicrous. Initial drives are coming in and impressions have been: its been worth the wait. There won't be much to educate on because once these are on the road, they'll just work.
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There is no source, chances are its just his opinion. Reservations went up based on no product impression. Now we have the real thing... I expect the Chinese market to go bananas over this car too
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
It all comes down to if you can generate enough demand to fill the production capacity for 2016 and 2017 i.e. until Model 3 hits. If they can then great - why not have it be a car that is very special. If there is no possible way for them to ramp up production to more than 1800 cars/week while maintaining quality then from a business standpoint those cars should have a high as possible Averge Sales Price and as high as possible margin. This lays the groundwork for Model 3. Remember the not-so-secret masterplan: Roadster --> S+X --> Model 3. Patience grasshopper
Too many people seem to forget that if they made a more ordinary but otherwise very compelling car for around $55-60k that could generate >1 millon/year demand it doesn't matter, in the near future they have no way of producing that many cars.
The X is very much about attention, free advertising, putting Tesla on everyones radar, all a build up to Model 3.
doggusfluffy
Closed
The idea right now is not for Tesla to introduce a more affordable car. The plan is to make compelling high margin (profit) cars that will pull in the cash that will allow the company to produce at high volume a much cheaper and necessarily lower margin car by 2017. You may want to read the master plan written by Elon Musk in 2006: Tesla Master Plan
my view is that Tesla stock price is tied to delivery of cars & SUVs. If delivery numbers go up this year and put company on trajectory to deliver target next year then price will go up. Delivery number encompasses both demand and production.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
There are 2 things to consider:
First, as others have already pointed out, the people who want an SUV are usually not the same people who want a sedan. Someone who wants a Honda Pilot is not going to buy a Honda Accord.
Second, $55k is currently an unrealistic price point because Tesla is limited by the price of batteries. Even if Tesla made a conventional SUV, the cost of the batteries and extra materials for the body would not make it any less expensive than Model S, with base price of $70k. Tesla needs a working Gigafactory churning out more affordable LiIon cells first.
Buddyroe
Active Member
Show me in the master plan where it says they will be 2.5 years late with the X, spending God knows how much money on designing HEPA filters, falcon doors, and auto-opening front doors (that don't work). And show me where it says it will start at $80k.
I remember hearing and reading that this car would be priced at a starting point of around $49k. Granted, time has gone by, and I can see that $49k reaching $55-60k - but 80!
Please tell me you guys saw the front door of the white Model X open by itself when the driver brought it out and exited the vehicle (after closing the door himself). Musk had to shut it. It was embarrassing to me and showed why this vehicle is not for sale to the general public yet.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Model 3 with falcon wing doors please.
Also make it flappable so I can show it off in a lowrider competition.
Also make it flappable so I can show it off in a lowrider competition.
smorgasbord
Active Member
1) You remember wrong. The Model S was initially going to be under $50K. They did that after incentives even though the car was late. Nothing was said on Model X pricing.
2) Master Plan never had a timetable.
3) My guess is that since Musk took the key from the driver, the key didn't get far enough away to trigger the door auto-close.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I think the stock price movement today has nothing to do with the car. Investors care about the ramp up and what I took from being at the event yesterday:
1) everyone was blown away by the car: features, performance, styling (video feed does not do justice)
2) people were very eager to experience the Model X test ride (my number came up at 1:00am)
3) no negatives surfaced that would impact the order book (this is the perfect car)
4) many pulling out credit cards to reserve one at the event (five stations constantly busy)
5) realization that only five cars delivered this quarter (four owners were handed the keys by Elon on stage, but immediately after that these cars were being used for test rides, plus Elon's own car stayed on stage for people to admire, sit in, put their finger prints on, etc.)
It's going to be all about how quickly Tesla can ramp up in Q4.
1) everyone was blown away by the car: features, performance, styling (video feed does not do justice)
2) people were very eager to experience the Model X test ride (my number came up at 1:00am)
3) no negatives surfaced that would impact the order book (this is the perfect car)
4) many pulling out credit cards to reserve one at the event (five stations constantly busy)
5) realization that only five cars delivered this quarter (four owners were handed the keys by Elon on stage, but immediately after that these cars were being used for test rides, plus Elon's own car stayed on stage for people to admire, sit in, put their finger prints on, etc.)
It's going to be all about how quickly Tesla can ramp up in Q4.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Amen.
Stock price wise this is it. Plus of course no big screw ups with the first batches of X delivered to actual customers.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Model S had a ton of cancellations, yet almost everyone agrees today that Model S has been a big success for Tesla. Sustained demand without advertising, even in the face od constant price increases (and loss of the low-end battery).
Model X cancellations are to be expected. People put money down on a car without knowing the specs or even what it looked like. Some will be disappointed. But others will be intrigued and add new deposits.
Pricing starting out high is good for Tesla. Brings in money. Early adopters are happy to pay for being that, especially since the cars are outfitted with all options. It's harder to make money on cheaper cars, so this is better for Tesla as a company. And, we all know that once non-sigs are available and smaller pack is available, and things become options that the base price will go down. But, this isn't going to be a $60K SUV.
Buyddroe, you're clearly not the intended market for this car, and you should cancel your reservation. You may think that just being electric is enough, but many others, including myself, don't. This vehicle will help Tesla compete when other companies do make "just electric" versions of their existing SUVs.
The bar is raised. Period.
hockeythug
Active Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
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