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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I'm scratching my head, too. The market cheers when the Fed mumbles in tongues about continued low rates. It also loves tax cuts. But when the whole world is getting a huge tax cut... the sky is falling?
I wonder how long it takes for lower input costs to percolate into higher earnings across the board (save for energy companies).
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think we need to get into earnings season and one company after another will highlight how lower fuel costs are helping them save money. At that time, this FUD bucket will be shot through with holes. Those trying to short the market on this have a pretty short window of time to pull this over on retail investors. Be prepared to jump in with cash.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Is anybody willing to speculate what caused this almost $9 ascend? The Nasdaq is down, the Brent Crude is down, but TSLA rose more than $8 on a steady volume. It looks like this is not any TSLA specific news related (no real spike in volume). Just looks like methodical position accumulation by a large player?
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Said by a not expert: when oil prices go down TSLA suffers a little bit, then the stock surges again. Now they can lower oil prices to $20. TSLA will suffer for some days, but then TSLA will surge again. Investors are losing interest for cheap oil/poison.
My 2 cents
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
jhm
Well-Known Member
This article came across just a few moments ago on SA. Questionable validity, but could be the stimulus that we have been waiting for to break above the 200d if true:
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2211145-u-s-electric-vehicle-sales-plus-23-percent-in-2014?app=1&uide=14100542&uprof=51#email_link
Feel free to discuss..... or not...
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2211145-u-s-electric-vehicle-sales-plus-23-percent-in-2014?app=1&uide=14100542&uprof=51#email_link
Feel free to discuss..... or not...
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chickensevil
Active Member
I had posted about this over in the Q4 thread, this is fantastic news for Tesla as this was a total blowout quarter for them (assuming the InsideEVs number is even remotely correct). Their numbers posted for Oct/Nov/Dec are 1300/1200/3500 respectively. This gives way to a couple key points.
First: 6,000 US sales for the quarter beats the previous record high of 5150 set back in Q2/2013 (which should put to rest for the moment about "plateaued demand")
Second: 3,500 is the single largest month not just for Tesla but for any EV manufacturer in the US (Including the current overall leaders Leaf and Volt).
Finally: Oct and Nov combined make the largest sales number in the US for Tesla of any first two month in a quarter combination we have had for 2014 (I didn't check 2013). This is significant for a couple reasons. The D had been announced by Oct for tons of people to want to drop their current orders for the D. Yet sales did not slide and instead continued to rise. Normally Tesla is forced into making cars for overseas sales, but this time around they were able to float far more US numbers during that period.
If the US is any indication of how the rest of the world should be trending toward then I am quite pleased with this quarter's outlook, and feel relatively confident that we have the numbers we needed to see for Q4 and 2014. I am seeing very few ways to "spin" the Tesla numbers into a negative picture (although I am certain that people will try).
Moderator's Note
I've moved the discussion about oil prices and related posts over to Gas prices
Let's try to keep this thread focused on news and other short-term drivers of TSLA's price. Thanks.
I've moved the discussion about oil prices and related posts over to Gas prices
Let's try to keep this thread focused on news and other short-term drivers of TSLA's price. Thanks.
chickensevil
Active Member
No, that is not a quarter... you split the months wrong. Jan-Mar | Apr-Jun | Jul-Sep | Oct-Dec
Because of how Tesla does their pushes for a quarter the correct way to attempt to get a decent picture of progress is on a per quarter basis. Any other weird split just doesn't make sense.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Right or wrong many seem to think fuel pricing is a short term driver for TSLA's price. There are articles being written about exactly that. Not saying it doesn't deserve it's own thread, just suggesting that it is very much on topic for short term price movements.
In small doses, I agree. But when we have 20 posts going off into some fairly deep macro analysis, it's time for that conversation to occur on a different stage.
Wow. Very very weak over the past few days, despite a strong rally in the major indices. At least one thing, it appears to be at least transiently decoupled from oil, for better or worse. This is however getting me worried about the days-weeks to come
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Way are worried? It should be the other way round. The decoupling of the stock from the oil prices should be of benefit for the stock IMO.
Overall market is up BIG. TSLA in the red. While it is annoying, I'm pretty confident that much of the holdout and lack of action is due to investors wanting a big update from Tesla. Tesla is not releasing information either because there are going to be a slew of events for this two events in detroit (NAIAS and the Detroit auto conference-- the name escapes me) but also the Deutsche Bank Automotive conference occurring next week.
On the plus side we know for certain there is significant progress on the long term initiatives. There was a gigafactory picture of structural foundations being put up for a building.
On the plus side we know for certain there is significant progress on the long term initiatives. There was a gigafactory picture of structural foundations being put up for a building.
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