Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Drax7]

Hi mao, thanks for your amazing post!

Edit: Wanted to write an answer to some of the statements in your post, but decided not to do so as it does only try to spread fear and misinformation on no new information.
Not worth writing an answer to such a post.
Having a background in mathematics, computer science and automotive industry your musings are just too great to read and your intentions are just too obvious!

Thank you!

BTW sold 50% of my protective puts some days ago for a 40% gain, sold an other 25% on friday for a 70% gain, still have 25% with an automatic order already in, so personally I do profit from your strategy to spread fear and misinformation. You could as well post a best case bull scenario here mentioning Tesla Motors will deliver 80000 vehicles this year for sure. Without facts these things are nothing but fiction. Please go on with your fiction and spread fears around here. Great to read! But please do not wonder people no longer listen to you in the future. Same with you being the first to share breaking negative news here for the benefit of others. Simply not true. Only multiplying fear to reinforce downtreds.

All the best and have a nice day!

Thanks for for the heads up, confirms my thought.

 

[aznt1217]

Chanos Sees Tesla as an Overpriced Carmaker Compared With BMW - Bloomberg Business

Watched it this morning. He's at it again publicizing his short position. He kept re-emphasizing the point that while Tesla is a first mover, other companies are catching up. He continued to cite the BMW i series cars as examples. He also stated that other EV's from the big manufacturers will hit the road in 3-4 years. I can't believe he stated that and still doesn't realize the ridiculous statement's he's making. I also love how he is only speculating based on the car company side of the business. Tesla energy's potential is the real story here. Once people start catching on to that long term share price is going to go nuts. We just need some press on this side, but energy storage isn't nearly as sexy nor does it sell as many headlines as autos.

You can trade on Chanos' view short term because people will follow, but timing is a risky game with shorting. It's also worth noting that many of us have the "Musk ETF" on this forum. Jim Chanos is the polar opposite.

 

[Krugerrand]

“It’s an overpriced car company,” Chanos said Monday in a television interview on “Bloomberg <GO>” with David Westin and Stephanie Ruhle. Tesla’s challenge will be growing from about 50,000 sales this year to 500,000 or a couple of million in a few years. “Becoming a car manufacturer is harder than being a tech darling,” he said.

Above quoted by dogg from the Bloomberg Business article:

Just want to say, did we not hear this 2 years+ ago? It went something like: Tesla's challenge will be going from producing 100 cars/week to 1000 cars/week - if demand of that level even exists.

 

[McMuggets]

Above quoted by dogg from the Bloomberg Business article:

Just want to say, did we not hear this 2 years+ ago? It went something like: Tesla's challenge will be going from producing 100 cars/week to 1000 cars/week - if demand of that level even exists.

If you do a quick Google search for "Jim Chanos Tesla" you will see that Chanos has been saying bad things about Tesla for years. If an investor were to have followed his words and fear-mongering they would have missed out on a great deal of share appreciation and wealth-building as Tesla now produces far more vehicles than many of his earlier predictions.

 

[farzyness]

Anyone else getting the same vibe from late 2013? I see the cash-flow positive event bring a very strong upward catalyst, very similar to what happened when we first turned a profit in 2014.

 

[Krugerrand]

Anyone else getting the same vibe from late 2013? I see the cash-flow positive event bring a very strong upward catalyst, very similar to what happened when we first turned a profit in 2016.

Yes, the deja vu is very strong and not just concerning TSLA. I'm hoping super hard for the 16-17k delivery number in Q4 followed by a 'surprise, we were a tiny bit cash flow positive in Q4 as well' type of tweet.

 

[McMuggets]

Yes, the deja vu is very strong and not just concerning TSLA. I'm hoping super hard for the 16-17k delivery number in Q4 followed by a 'surprise, we were a tiny bit cash flow positive in Q4 as well' type of tweet.

That would shush up all the recent bad news coming out about Tesla. Once the shorts come out to talk on numerous screens, the bottom may be near and a bit of good news could mean a lot for the share price.

 

[aznt1217]

Yes, the deja vu is very strong and not just concerning TSLA. I'm hoping super hard for the 16-17k delivery number in Q4 followed by a 'surprise, we were a tiny bit cash flow positive in Q4 as well' type of tweet.

Yes, but I am in the camp that cautions that Cash Flow positive will occur Q1 2016. One quarter delay for that due to Model X and accelerated giga factory cash burn (due to being ahead of schedule and such). Either way 1 quarter wouldn't matter for projections. Also, yes I'm getting crazy deja vu because short interest is pretty incredible... near 2013 levels when the company is an entirely different phase on its lifecycle.

 

[FredTMC]

Yes, the deja vu is very strong and not just concerning TSLA. I'm hoping super hard for the 16-17k delivery number in Q4 followed by a 'surprise, we were a tiny bit cash flow positive in Q4 as well' type of tweet.

Yeah... "a win should feel like a win"

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, but I am in the camp that cautions that Cash Flow positive will occur Q1 2016. One quarter delay for that due to Model X and accelerated giga factory cash burn (due to being ahead of schedule and such). Either way 1 quarter wouldn't matter for projections. Also, yes I'm getting crazy deja vu because short interest is pretty incredible... near 2013 levels when the company is an entirely different phase on its lifecycle.

Not disagreeing, but am hoping hard enough to pop out eyeballs because it would be spectacular on a whole other level. (And I'm super tired of the pervasive general negativity.)

 

[ludicrousspeed]

I also love how he is only speculating based on the car company side of the business. Tesla energy's potential is the real story here. Once people start catching on to that long term share price is going to go nuts. We just need some press on this side, but energy storage isn't nearly as sexy nor does it sell as many headlines as autos.

It seems that the entire market is forgetting about Tesla energy. 2016 will be an enormous year for the stock IMO because +$1B in revenue from energy storage will be impossible to ignore.

For the short term, however, does anybody think the avg analyst estimate of $1.24B for 3Q may be too high? They had $955M in sales in 2Q and virtually sold the same amount of vehicles in 3Q as in 2Q of this year, and we've never seen a billion in sales for any quarter. Where is this extra sales revenue coming from?

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla Motors investors turn bearish as stock slumps - LA Times

"Our fundamental difference with the Tesla bulls lies around the company's ability to become a successful mass-market [automaker] — while the bulls believe Tesla will be the next Ford, we see many challenges ahead," Johnson said.

Johnson said Tesla fumbled the launch of its Model X last month. Generally, automakers would expect a boost in the share price from such an event, but Tesla has fallen.


Tesla will now miss its guidance to investors about how many cars it will deliver this year, Johnson said.

Maybe Chanos was right and VW is a better investment than Tesla. I mean sure they lied and cheated, but Tesla can only someday dream of reaching the scale where they're recalling 11 million cars. Boutique, Elitist and Overvalued! :wink:

 

[ggr]

... Let's assume no production increase for entire 2015 and no model X production either...

Well, that's wrong right there. We already know that the production lines changed in early July to allow far greater production. The factory shut down for a week to do the changeover.

 

[Yggdrasill]

A month ago I sold my short term position at 252, because I thought Tesla would catch some flak over the Model X, but I think it has dropped too much. Various analysts seems to assume that Tesla won't be able to offer an 80k USD Model X whenever they need to with good margins, something I think is wrong.

I think we'll see an upwards correction once more Model Xs are delivered and more information becomes available (or earlier), so I redid my short term position at 219.

 

[Scott Ales]

The only substantial recovery will occur if Q3 / Q4 numbers exceed general (not technical) expectations. Companies with this kind of volatility cannot rely on slight or incremental technical accomplishments to move 20% upward. Tweets and dreams won't make it happen.

That said, I don't understand the sediment that AutoPilot is dangerous. People are dangerous! I can't wait to get the driving away from the people I see driving today. 8 out of 10 on the road have their nose down towards their phones. That has to end and Tesla is on the leading edge or at least on par with others. I just sold a 2009 Infiniti FX50 with all the same things Tesla is releasing now with exception to hanging lanes with the turn signal. There are no lawsuits against that car or the company.

 

[AudubonB]

The only substantial recovery will occur if Q3 / Q4 numbers exceed general (not technical) expectations. Companies with this kind of volatility cannot rely on slight or incremental technical accomplishments to move 20% upward. Tweets and dreams won't make it happen.

That said, I don't understand the sediment that AutoPilot is dangerous. People are dangerous! I can't wait to get the driving away from the people I see driving today. 8 out of 10 on the road have their nose down towards their phones. That has to end and Tesla is on the leading edge or at least on par with others. I just sold a 2009 Infiniti FX50 with all the same things Tesla is releasing now with exception to hanging lanes with the turn signal. There are no lawsuits against that car or the company.[/QUOTE]
Oooh! Kin I put this into the Funny Misteaks & Bad Puns thread? That sediment - it's sludge! Raw, unadulterated sludge!

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The problem with the stock trading at this level is that anybody who bought in the 180-190 zone is ready to pull the trigger and sell. Very weak price action.

 

[Ocelot]

I really do not know what to do. Want to buy some more at these prices, but do feel Q4 deliveries will be a 'miss' (more consistent with q3 deliveries in the 11500-12 500 range) . Will the stock decrease farther if they miss?

 

[jhm]

Watched it this morning. He's at it again publicizing his short position. He kept re-emphasizing the point that while Tesla is a first mover, other companies are catching up. He continued to cite the BMW i series cars as examples. He also stated that other EV's from the big manufacturers will hit the road in 3-4 years. I can't believe he stated that and still doesn't realize the ridiculous statement's he's making. I also love how he is only speculating based on the car company side of the business. Tesla energy's potential is the real story here. Once people start catching on to that long term share price is going to go nuts. We just need some press on this side, but energy storage isn't nearly as sexy nor does it sell as many headlines as autos.

You can trade on Chanos' view short term because people will follow, but timing is a risky game with shorting. It's also worth noting that many of us have the "Musk ETF" on this forum. Jim Chanos is the polar opposite.

I suspect that this sort of publicity is simply about securing an exit point for Chanos. Presumably he's already made his money on the way down. Now he just needs to loop in a few more suckers so he can get out without provoking a squeeze.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Not disagreeing, but am hoping hard enough to pop out eyeballs because it would be spectacular on a whole other level. (And I'm super tired of the pervasive general negativity.)

The overall mood having turned so negative regarding Tesla it constantly amazes me. What brought me to start lurking here in the first place back in 2013 was excitement and boundless possibility which have been replaced with secrecy, missed deadlines and doubt regarding execution to demand. I think Tesla has let their once compelling story become hijacked, gradually over time.

With VW No Longer an Option, Diesel Buyers Have Few Choices

Frustrated, Ms. Wheat said she might just leave her next choice in a car up to chance.

“I bought a lottery ticket,” she said. “And if I win, I’m buying a Tesla.”