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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I assume there is a LONG 'I accept that I am resposible' preamble that needs to be digitally accepted before using the AP. I would hope people use it cautiously at first, then wisely to avoid issues.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Lets be clear about auto-steer: the driver is 100% liable.
1). Keep in mind other manufactures already have lane auto steering. Apparently, they don't work great and drivers of course need to pay close attention. I haven't heard much of anything about accidents with these other auto-steer cars
2). Adaptive cruise control is already deployed, so it's a non-issue. Only Auto-steer is new
3). Is it possible there will be accidents while the car is in auto-steer? Sure... Will the media spin it? Sure... Bottom line remains that the driver is 100% liable.
I'm sorry, I don't follow your logic. Up until now, Model S deliveries have always been production limited. Without them releasing figures that they haven't released, we don't know what the demand really is. Now, this quarter, two things have changed. (1) the customer referrals have kicked in. (2) Tesla has drastically changed the configuration of their production lines to be able to produce many more vehicles. So, I don't think you have any evidence to conclude that they will be demand limited rather than production limited, nor do you have any evidence at all that the demand is capped at around 12-13k, even if they are going to be demand limited for the very first time.
Now I'll be the first to admit that your pessimism has been correct more often than not. (And I thank you for that.) But where's your evidence this time?
I don't mind hearing his perspective on this. Does everyone really believe demand is growing as much as it was in 2013? Plateauing demand is completely expected at some point. The question is when and how much?
I've seen numbers that 60-70K for the S is reasonable for peak demand.
The 70D, referrals, the halo effect from the X may increase demand at the margin. I know a lot of people who love the S but can't afford more than $50-60K so they are limited to CPO or waiting for the M3.
I can tell you for a fact that demand for Model S is not plateauing yet. People are still learning about the brand. I was at an event today and most people didn't even know Tesla offered leasing. Now that they do I heard many say it was going to be their next car after their leases are up on their MB and BMWs
roblab
Active Member
And *I* know a lot of people who will go out and spend $50K+ on a pickup truck and think nothing of making continued payments every week at the fueling station amounting to an additional $20K to $40K.
I also know people who spend the same amount on a BMW or MB or Porsche or some other premium car, and then make payments at the pump for ever after, and try to tell people that they'd love a Tesla, but they can't afford one.
Sorry. I call BS. Most people can afford what they want. That's why you see so many people with large houses, dogs, horses, large screen TVs, people who eat out two of every three meals. They can afford a nice car ("hey, I only paid $30K for it, used") plus more on maintenance and fuel, AND they have a couple extra cars in the driveway they don't use. They have a barbeque. Heck, they eat meat, which is way more expensive than they need, simply because "I like it".
They claim concern about the environment, climate change, etc., until it comes time to vote with your wallet. Then there's "nothing I can do. I'm only one of millions." I'm not convinced.
You're right, though. As more Teslas are bought by former Tesla owners, there are more "used" Teslas out there. And there will be the model 3. And fewer excuses not to do the right thing.
Perfectlogic
Member
S demand clearly has been flattish for the last year. Demand = sales + difference in backlog, and sales + difference in backlog have been steady, there is no way around it. This is probably the main reason I'm not as bullish on TSLA in the medium term as I once were, you have to acknowledge the facts.
Sorry, I don't agree with this either. Rather, I agree with the formula, but "difference in backlog" is something else that we don't know. Tesla knows how many cars they believe they can produce during a given window of time, and they know how many orders they have, and the "difference in backlog" is basically how long before a new order will be delivered. In other words, the time delay for new deliveries already takes into account increased production!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Tesla Deliveries are up 49% YoY for Q3 per tesla press release. That's not flat.
We do know that tesla is ramping production here in Q4 and tesla has told us they are ramping towards 1600-1800 cars per week next year.
While I don't think there's some huge demand backlog right now, the potential for demand is still very much there.
Most Tesla sales are happening in a tiny few markets. California, Norway, and that's about it. Imagine what would happen if China demand, the other 49 US states, or the other Eurozone countries picked up the same amount of demand relative to the population. The ceiling could be in the 200-300k+ annual range easily.
I'm not saying that'll be the case, but it's there in the short-term if other markets reach more mature levels like Cali and Norway.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Demand constrained or production constrained, I don't think anybody here has concrete proof, it's all speculation. Even with same Tesla public data, someone might get conclusion it's production constrained and someone might get conclusion it's demand constrained. I started to have demand constraint theory from Q1 guidance when there was no material increase for delivery and production # per week compared to Q4. My thesis got further proved by my observation from Q2/Q3 guidance, 70D introduction and referral program. More importantly, with almost flatten delivery # Q4/Q1/Q2/Q3, there is no sign Tesla got longer backlog queue. Tesla only mentioned 10K backlog in Q4 ER then no mention for that at all in following Q1/Q2 ER. I think I had presented my "demand constraint" thesis in "website wait time" thread in first half of this year and expected to see 2015 miss effect especially in Q4. Here it comes. Personally my investment strategy follows my speculation and it turns out successful YTD.
At the end, it's actually not important to dispute production or demand constrained. The important thing which affects the SP is the guidance miss and how big? Depends on which theory you use, if you can predict guidance miss and how big is the miss, you will be the winner of 2015 TSLA investment.
At the end, it's actually not important to dispute production or demand constrained. The important thing which affects the SP is the guidance miss and how big? Depends on which theory you use, if you can predict guidance miss and how big is the miss, you will be the winner of 2015 TSLA investment.
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Perfectlogic
Member
With the last year I meant the last 4 quarters. I have been talking about the S demand curve flattening, the increased guidance next year is because of the X. Due to the X backlog I do think Tesla will meet the lower end of the guidance, but I don't expect more than 80k deliveries as it looks now and that is by eating the X backlog. A few quarters ago I was expecting 100k+ deliveries as Tesla was guidance for 2k/week runrate EoY 2015 and demand had been trending upwards with the added catalyst of further international expansion.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If they have enough demand (MS and MX combined) to get to 2017 they will be able to reduce substantially without reducing margins. Someone posted some figures showing a big increase in demand for each 5K price reduction. With the MX backlog it seem likely they can make it to 2017.
How... Are we still talking about demand constraint, its simply not the case.
Here's what we know:
1. The referral program was for the purpose of understanding what kind of capex would be needed for store expansion/if store expansion was worth it in specific areas.
2. Model X is production constrained and it hasn't hit the streets in a widespread fashion.
3. Model S is not demand constrained. It is still production constrained worldwide. The luxury car market is huge as it stands as more leases get turned in and more owners trade in vehicles while the brand is growing in strength. The beauty of this car is it crosses many chasms.
4. I don't have proof for other regions and can only speak for my area of New York, but there's still a ton of pent up and untapped demand. You'd be amazed at how many people don't know about Tesla or take the time to research this.
Here's what we know:
1. The referral program was for the purpose of understanding what kind of capex would be needed for store expansion/if store expansion was worth it in specific areas.
2. Model X is production constrained and it hasn't hit the streets in a widespread fashion.
3. Model S is not demand constrained. It is still production constrained worldwide. The luxury car market is huge as it stands as more leases get turned in and more owners trade in vehicles while the brand is growing in strength. The beauty of this car is it crosses many chasms.
4. I don't have proof for other regions and can only speak for my area of New York, but there's still a ton of pent up and untapped demand. You'd be amazed at how many people don't know about Tesla or take the time to research this.
Perfectlogic
Member
Your anecdotes of people you have met who doesn't know about Tesla yet doesn't make your claim about Tesla being production constrained true. What we know is that the backlog haven't grown bigger over the last year while the sales have remained steady and this can only mean one thing. If demand was 15k/quarter and sales were 10k, the backlog would grow by 5k.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The Dec 2015's and Jan 2016's are going down faster by percentage, but much less in the actual amounts. So maybe (if prices stay flat or keep going down) waiting for Jun 2016's will work out ok. But I think I'm going to roll to Mar 2016's on Monday.
Code:
Oct 9 Closing prices TSLA was at 220.68 -6.04 (-2.67%)
Strike Price Change Bid Ask Volume Open-Int
Dec 2015's
250.00 7.20 -1.85 6.70 7.20 214 1587
Jan 2016's
230.00 17.10 -0.90 16.00 16.30 209 4107
240.00 12.60 -1.69 12.15 12.60 97 2487
250.00 9.30 -1.45 9.10 9.65 882 4763
260.00 7.15 -0.82 6.65 7.10 100 2567
280.00 3.65 -0.55 3.50 3.70 1261 2982
Mar 2016's
200.00 38.32 -2.08 36.45 39.05 308 559
210.00 32.31 -6.64 30.65 33.85 1 50
220.00 26.80 -3.60 25.45 27.15 11 96
230.00 21.85 -0.85 20.90 22.45 12 66
240.00 17.77 -2.03 17.50 19.40 30 227
250.00 14.55 -2.90 14.00 14.65 27 386
260.00 11.10 -2.15 10.50 11.95 31 260
Jan 2017's
200.00 52.50 -3.00 51.45 55.25 182 3221
210.00 48.05 -1.95 46.10 50.20 6 1377
220.00 43.50 -2.30 41.20 43.30 34 2063
230.00 39.15 -2.75 37.50 39.70 18 1336
240.00 35.45 -2.55 33.65 35.30 66 1473
250.00 31.15 -2.29 29.70 32.55 45 3381TM only quoted 2014 exit backlog # 10K in Q4 ER as an indicator for strong demand. There is nothing similar mentioned in Q1/Q2 ER, so I'm positive the backlog in 2015 is <= 10K. This thing might be changed a little bit in Q3 ER because of referral program and low Q3 delivery (essentially push some orders into Q4 to compensate model X).
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