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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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There is no evidence that Model X is being produced right now on the new body in white (Bonnie has a VIN but no delivery date), so why would Tesla not use the new body in white to pump out Model S while they wait on their Model X suppliers to deliver?

Because programming the line for MX and de-bugging it takes time. I believe they are still in the process of doing that. This includes using the line for trial runs, and then doing hardware adjustments/software de-bugging as required.
 
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Because programming the line for MX and de-bugging it takes time. I believe they are still in the process of doing that. This includes using the line for trial runs, and then doing hardware adjustments/software de-bugging as required.

I'm fairly certain the new line can produce both cars and the old line only Model S (for now). I believe I read this in the last quarterly earnings letter. It also mentioned where they were at the time for Model X debugging and fine tuning. Deliveries for founders started and I'm pretty sure Tesla is getting ready to flip the switch for critical mass deliveries.
 
I think that we should keep in mind that the radio journalist from NPR was much more aware of all of the issues that were touched upon during the interview than an average journalist. The guy was actually thoroughly prepared and came from the factory tour just before the interview. I think that his suggestion of 1,000 cars/week was not a blind guess, he probably already knew the approximate output before asking the question, and asked it just as a confirmation. I do not see how Elon would confirm this number if it was off by 400 units...

Good point about the journalist's recent tour. Nonetheless, I do think Musk's answer leaves much wiggle-room.
 
To an engineer accustomed to thinking in terms of orders of magnitude (I.e. 10x or 100x bigger), 1400 is approximately the same as 1000.

Elon, being the aerospace guy he is, often talks about orders of magnitude. When you're thinking two years down the road, as he must be as CEO, and ramping to 10,000 cars a week, the difference between 1400 and 1000 is a rounding error.
 
Food for thought:
New Tesla Motors assembly factory in Tilburg, Netherlands, bringing delivery output in Europe to a new level (link).
While some uncertainity about the production increase in the factory in Fremont, USA, remains we know that the delivery capabilities in Europe increased with the opening of the new assembly factory in Tilburg some weeks ago.
The new assembly factory in Tilburg is able to support an annualized 450 deliveries throughout Europe per week.
Sales network in Europe expanded to now 69 stores and service centers in 12 European countries.
The Tilburg, Netherlands, factory assembles the shell, battery pack, power train, and rear axle. Cars also get a European firmware upload.
Tesla's Supercharger network now has more than 1,000 high-speed chargers installed in Europe.

BTW new Apple icar, Volkswagen Phaeton EV, Porsche mission e, Audi R8 and Quattro EV, BMW i5, spotted driving out in the wild (btw big credit to photographer):
2015-10-12-VWPhaeton-AudiR8-AudiQuattroSUV-PressRelease.jpg
 
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There is no evidence that Model X is being produced right now on the new body in white (Bonnie has a VIN but no delivery date), so why would Tesla not use the new body in white to pump out Model S while they wait on their Model X suppliers to deliver?

I'm not an expert, but what I have read elsewhere, it takes 6 months to tune a car production line so that it deliveres a flawless car. So it is not that you just boot up some new software to robots.
 
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I'm not an expert, but what I have read elsewhere, it takes 6 months to tune a car production line so that it deliveres a flawless car. So it is not that you just boot up some new software to robots.

Just to keep the record straight - you were responding to the post by mdemetri, not me. There was apparent error when mdemetri replied to my previous post and somehow carried over the wrong set of the "brackets".

I totally agree with you - I do not see any way new BIW line can be used for MS production before the end of the year. MS production will be done at the existing (old) BIW line, while MX body production will be scaling up on the new BIW line. This is the way the process was described by Elon during the ER. This is also the way it was described in response to my question during this summer's factory visit.

Production of the MS will be blended into the new BIW line some time in the future, and old BIW line will no longer be in use. I was told during the factory visit this summer that the space occupied by the old BIW line will eventually be used for Model 3 production. My guess that blending will not occur before the MX production is scaled up and running steady state, some time next year.

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To an engineer accustomed to thinking in terms of orders of magnitude (I.e. 10x or 100x bigger), 1400 is approximately the same as 1000.

Elon, being the aerospace guy he is, often talks about orders of magnitude. When you're thinking two years down the road, as he must be as CEO, and ramping to 10,000 cars a week, the difference between 1400 and 1000 is a rounding error.

Well, as an engineer, I can tell you that to an engineer 1400 *is not* approximately the same as 1000. It is 40% more. :smile:
 
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