Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Thumper]

I think we are stuck in this price neighborhood or worse until TM makes money or demonstrates a much clearer short term path to making money. I'm long TM since $23.80 but would like to see more X production and Powerwall order fulfillment.

 

[electracity]

I think we are stuck in this price neighborhood or worse until TM makes money or demonstrates a much clearer short term path to making money. I'm long TM since $23.80 but would like to see more X production and Powerwall order fulfillment.

You don't think MX selling well and a big book of orders for M3 won't boost the price?

 

[jhm]

People will spend $60k on a Model 3, not because they must, but because they may.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think we are stuck in this price neighborhood or worse until TM makes money or demonstrates a much clearer short term path to making money. I'm long TM since $23.80 but would like to see more X production and Powerwall order fulfillment.

Wow... that's close to what shares traded for at the end of IPO day (about 20 bucks, I think). I wish I had bought at that price, but I didn't have the courage to start buying in until a few months before the initial Model S deliveries.

But yeah, I've been saying the same thing. TSLA is going to keep bumping back and forth in the current trading range until Model X and Tesla Energy start raking in the dough. I have no idea when this might be, but I suspect that it could be within the next 6 months. The Q1 2016 results, which should come out in May 2016, is the earliest possibility for big changes in results from ramped up Model X and Tesla Energy deliveries. If people are feeling a bit down from the earnings boost and subsequent slide, I think now is the time to buy and hold for awhile. It's hard to figure out when the big boost will arrive, but when it does, you don't want to miss it. Buy when others are fearful. Sell when others are greedy.

 

[AlMc]

It would be great if there was a positive surprise soon, but I can't think of anything...Thoughts? I agree, I can't think of any in the next couple weeks/months (short term)

I highly doubt tesla will reveal Model 3 before March date. Agree....Possible, but doubtful

I thought reaffirming guidance would enough to reset tesla higher. Reaffirming guidance did cause TSLA to go higher. Before the ER/CC it was slowly going down, The ER stemmed the tide and popped us back up over $230. Now, until that guidance is affirmed with actual numbers it appears we are treading water again

IMO:

- Most MX sig deliveries by year end are already priced in

- GF buildout/storage is priced in Fred, I agree with both these sentiments. 2016 wil be a good year, the rest of 2015 ??

I agree with @anticitizen: Good long term buy. Playing short term can make you $ or lose you $ with equal ease.

 

[tlo]

Tesla (TSLA) Is Charging Up for a Fresh Rally - TheStreet

Yes, I'm ready for a rally

I think this is onto something.

 

[chickensevil]

People will spend $60k on a Model 3, not because they must, but because they may.

To that extent, people will spend 35k on a Model 3 not because they must. Anyone buying a NEW car is not in a poor position. Poor people don't buy new cars.

It just turns out that as the price comes down more people that can buy new cars can afford said new car.

 

[jhm]

We Know Teslas Customers Love the Brand, But Now Suppliers Do Too | Transport Evolved

Hey, it looks like suppliers like working with Tesla as much as with Toyota. Welcomed news as we wait to see how well the Model X ramps up. Good relationships with suppliers are always a plus.

 

[pGo]

What are the chances that Tesla buys Solar city? It is increasing likely that raising money through bonds or stock sale for solar city is highly unlikely considering current 2019 bonds discount of about 40%. If Tesla acquires solar city, that could mess up a lot of things.

Other scenario is Solar city goes private. But in that case too, Elon may have to guarantee part of his Tesla stake as a collateral. Is anyone considering these scenarios in light of recent price movement.

 

[dmunjal]

Elon has quoted a base price of Model 3 at $35,000, EXCLUDING federal tax credits. Chevy, on the other hand, quoted a $30,000 price for the Bolt, INCLUDING federal tax credit.

The $7500 credit is already halfway to expiring for Tesla so this shouldn't be a major factor in comparisons by 2017.

 

[theschnell]

What are the chances that Tesla buys Solar city? It is increasing likely that raising money through bonds or stock sale for solar city is highly unlikely considering current 2019 bonds discount of about 40%. If Tesla acquires solar city, that could mess up a lot of things.

Other scenario is Solar city goes private. But in that case too, Elon may have to guarantee part of his Tesla stake as a collateral. Is anyone considering these scenarios in light of recent price movement.

I think highly unlikely. Solar City's market cap is still $2.5 billion. It would have to get much, much cheaper for Tesla to even consider it. Even then, I just don't see it happening. More likely that Elon taps one of his rich friends (google) to take it private, if it comes to the point of bankruptcy. Personally, I think they will find a way to become cash flow positive in the short term so that they can pull through this energy downturn and be ready for the next upswing in energy prices. However, the only way for them to have a chance at being cash flow positive is if they dramatically slow down their growth. I say all this like I know something about Solar City, which I really don't, but that's my surface knowledge anyway.

- - - Updated - - -

The $7500 credit is already halfway to expiring for Tesla so this shouldn't be a major factor in comparisons by 2017.

Nope, only about a quarter of the way there. It begins to phase out at 200,000 vehicles, and Tesla has only sold around 50,000 or less in the U.S.

 

[Buddyroe]

It's hard to buy a half ton pickup for more than $50K out the door.

Really? You must be buying a stripped down model. Obviously you've never bought a pickup. Go price a Ford F150. Just google them on ebay - tons for over $50k. And people are buying them in gang-busters.

This Raptor had an MSRP of $87k

F150 Raptor

There are currently 278 F150s (1/2 ton pickup) on ebay for over $50k. And this at the end of the year when they are all about gone.

F150s over $50k

And the F150 is the best selling vehicle IN THE WORLD!

If you are going to get pissed off at people/media for spreading FUD on Tesla, then at least don't do the same yourself when it pertains to other vehicles when/if it fits your own argument.

 

[theschnell]

Really? You must be buying a stripped down model. Obviously you've never bought a pickup. Go price a Ford F150. Just google them on ebay - tons for over $50k. And people are buying them in gang-busters.

This Raptor had an MSRP of $87k

F150 Raptor

There are currently 278 F150s (1/2 ton pickup) on ebay for over $50k. And this at the end of the year when they are all about gone.

F150s over $50k

And the F150 is the best selling vehicle IN THE WORLD!

If you are going to get pissed off at people/media for spreading FUD on Tesla, then at least don't do the same yourself when it pertains to other vehicles when/if it fits your own argument.

And some people claim its stupid to spend 90k on a Tesla...

 

[chickensevil]

And some people claim its stupid to spend 90k on a Tesla...

Why sure it is, because that's a "man's truck" and you are buying some sissy golf cart trying to "save the planet"... as if, stupid crazy environmentalists!

Ahem, sorry... I didn't think we had any of the appropriate crowd on here to provide the "standard" response...

 

[Scott Ales]

Why sure it is, because that's a "man's truck" and you are buying some sissy golf cart trying to "save the planet"... as if, stupid crazy environmentalists!

Ahem, sorry... I didn't think we had any of the appropriate crowd on here to provide the "standard" response...

Hah!

Ford Raptor, what ever.

Check out a real man's truck! My wife caught me running this around the building to park it inside the other day. I parked it right next to the Tesla Roadster.
1977 Kenworth W900

 

[Yggdrasill]

And the F150 is the best selling vehicle IN THE WORLD!

You mean the US. The best selling vehicles in the world are Toyota Corolla, Ford Focus and VW Golf.

Assuming global F-150 sales are 700k, the F-150 is also beat by Hyundai Elantra, Toyota Camry, Wuling Hung Guang, Honda CR-V and Cheverolet Cruze.

- - - Updated - - -

The $7500 credit is already halfway to expiring for Tesla so this shouldn't be a major factor in comparisons by 2017.

It isn't halfway to expiring. It's only about a third of the way there. At the end of the year cumulative sales should be somewhere around 60-65k in the US and the incentive expires at 200k. Plus there's a phase out over about a year. There was a discussion about it here: Will the Model 3 be Ludicrously Fast? - Page 9

 

[Johan]

What are the chances that Tesla buys Solar city? It is increasing likely that raising money through bonds or stock sale for solar city is highly unlikely considering current 2019 bonds discount of about 40%. If Tesla acquires solar city, that could mess up a lot of things.

Other scenario is Solar city goes private. But in that case too, Elon may have to guarantee part of his Tesla stake as a collateral. Is anyone considering these scenarios in light of recent price movement.

I've considered it. One possible route would be to somehow bud off Tesla Energy from Tesla Motors (cars) and then have Tesla Energy absorb Solarcity and have that whole thing go private. Don't ask me how this could happen, and yes that would be very negative for TSLA valuation since some of the valuation of TSLA depends on Tesla Energy.

 

[Matias]

Should Tesla investors consider SolarCity's situation some way? Could Tesla face similar problems?

 

[Johan]

Should Tesla investors consider SolarCity's situation some way? Could Tesla face similar problems?

Only in the context that we know Elon is invested in both companies personally and his reputation is tied to both. Tesla would not face similar problems as SCTY may be facing now since the business models are not at all similar.

 

[JRP3]

As I figured, many news outlets are misinterpreting what Jonas said about the Model 3 pricing:

Analyst Predicts Elon Musk's Tesla Model 3 Might Cost $60,000 -- Not $35,000

https://www.inverse.com/article/801...-s-tesla-model-3-might-cost-60-000-not-35-000