Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FredTMC]

Tesla (TSLA) Is Charging Up for a Fresh Rally - TheStreet

Yes, I'm ready for a rally

 

[hockeythug]

Also important here, is that a large percent of people live in apartments with no access to home charging. In NY city, 51% of residences are apartments. And Tesla won't allow local charging with super chargers, definitely not when there are a lot of Tesla cars on the road. The situation only gets worse when we think about Asia and Europe.

56% of people that live there don't own a car.

 

[dha]

Latest short interest figures have just been released: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

TSLA short interest is now at a 1.5 year high. Short interest has not been this high since 3/14/2014 despite being a far less risky investment today, IMHO.

 

[esk8mw]

Latest short interest figures have just been released: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

TSLA short interest is now at a 1.5 year high. Short interest has not been this high since 3/14/2014 despite being a far less risky investment today, IMHO.

Was probably just people gearing up to short the Q3 earnings, no? Sentiment was crazy low around 10/30 (and the reason the stock popped so much despite the "miss").

 

[dha]

Was probably just people gearing up to short the Q3 earnings, no? Sentiment was crazy low around 10/30 (and the reason the stock popped so much despite the "miss").

Yes, quite possible. The next set of figures should be instructive.

 

[aznt1217]

Tesla (TSLA) Is Charging Up for a Fresh Rally - TheStreet

Yes, I'm ready for a rally

My body is ready.

 

[FluxCap]

I live on the East coast and 10 miles from a supercharger and I have seen maybe 10 Teslas EVER - and that includes a couple in Boston.

Did I miss where you cite research to make your finite conclusions? Where do you derive your assumptions? Unless you have conducted focus groups to measure the EV demand and supply curve adjusting for region, price sensitivity and desired features, which I assume you have not, you are just looking around your individual area, noting a lack of Tesla products around you, and extrapolating to all markets in the entire world. That seems to be a fairly casual and reckless basis for making investment decisions about a now proven, high-growth American company with some of the most-desired and award-winning products on the planet.

 

[sub]

If Tesla is installing 100 superchargers a year and they have 2 years minimum before the first model 3 might hit the road, the gaps will be mostly eliminated. Tesla is technically on an endless ramp, they can sell the majority of the first 1-3 years of production of model 3's into the most densely covered areas (where most the people live anyways) while they continue to add superchargers. As profits increase they will be able to add superchargers at an increasing rate along with the potential (likely) inclusion of partners to help speed the process even more.

dont forget, when the first ICE vehicles drove off the line there were no gas stations. We have electricity everywhere.

Only simple minds see the future distribution of charging infrastructure as an unscalable obstacle.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is the reset before the storm. Jonas has already lost all credibility, and is making random comments about things he either doesn't understand, is choosing to overlook, or is being told to misrepresent. My bet is something will be announced in the next few weeks that will surprise everyone, and will determine the direction for the next few months. Most of the comments from journalists over the past few weeks have been almost complete BS. I stand by what I've said.

$2 gas is very bad for the economy. Even the GOP is beginning to realize this. The gasoline tax in Michigan was just increased by 7.3 cents.

GOP governor to sign gas tax hike | TheHill

The national gas tax has been the traditional source of transportation funding since its inception in the 1930s. The tax has not been increased since 1993, however, and improvements in auto fuel efficiency have sapped its purchasing power.

The federal government typically spends about $50 billion per year on transportation projects, but the gas tax only brings in approximately $34 billion annually at its current rate.
Lawmakers have turned to other areas of the federal budget in recent years to close the $16 billion per year gap, but transportation advocates have said the resulting temporary funding measures are preventing states from completing large construction projects.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that it will take about $100 billion, in addition to the annual gas tax receipts, to pay for a six-year transportation funding bill.

If the governments of the world can't reach an agreement in France, the world has bigger problems than ISIS and climate change.

 

[electracity]

I don't know - what does an F150 Raptor cost or an F250 Lariat or King Ranch 4WD? I think they're in the 70's and they're everywhere around here. Mostly everything else is some kind of SUV - MB, BMW, Lexus, or Lincoln SUV (and I do see some Porsche Cayennes occasionally also).

Where I live, people just want BIG vehicles and they better be able to go 400 miles on a tank (even if they get 15 mph!). ......

It's hard to buy a half ton pickup for more than $50K out the door. They really are a good value. Bigger than 1/2 ton is not really a car, I think. But I certainly understand that much of affluent rural America wants big . That trait, however, is unique in the word.

The biggest 4x4 I have owned is a Unimog U500. That truck made a few some guys in lifted American pickups literally mad. BillyBob will be the last EV convert, I think.

 

[Yggdrasill]

And as far as your 95% argument - there are a ton of EVs out there that will suffice for people's local driving. Those cars ain't selling crap. People don't want a single purpose car. Plain and simple. When someone comes out with a 400 mile range EV and a network to fast charge it AT LEAST every 50 miles, it will be all over for ICE vehicles. Until then, it will be an uphill battle, and nothing but early adopters. The statistics bear out what I am saying. Sales are simply minuscule.

All-electric car sales in Norway are at 20% market share. This is is for one simple reason, electric cars are comparatively cheap here. Once this happens in the US as well, the revolution will be all to obvious.

And I agree most people want a single purpose vehicle, that's why the Leaf isn't good enough. The Model 3 however will be more than sufficient for everyones needs, in it's size bracket. 300 mile range and current supercharger specs are sufficient for probably 75% of car buyers.

 

[jhm]

Yay, the Greenville, SC, Supercharger is open! This finally connects Atlanta to Charlotte, NC, and most of the Northeast US. I'm very happy I can vacation again in Asheville.

This station will definitely facilitate Tesla sales in Georgia and North Carolina. Whoot!

 

[Gerasimental]

Did I miss where you cite research to make your finite conclusions? Where do you derive your assumptions? Unless you have conducted focus groups to measure the EV demand and supply curve adjusting for region, price sensitivity and desired features, which I assume you have not, you are just looking around your individual area, noting a lack of Tesla products around you, and extrapolating to all markets in the entire world. That seems to be a fairly casual and reckless basis for making investment decisions about a now proven, high-growth American company with some of the most-desired and award-winning products on the planet.

Hang on, nobody is ever held to these standards when using circumstantial evidence or anecdotal evidence to show that there is immeasurably massive demand for EVs and Tesla products (now and future) or other claims on the bullish side. Just cautioning against double standards and biased reactions.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm simply going by sales numbers. Do you have any stats to back that some transition as started? Can less than 1% of car sales REALLY be considered a transition? Come on now. Yes, we are taking baby steps toward EV understanding and acceptance, but no transition is taking place. Not yet.

I think I said starting to happen. If not I apologize.

Years ago a friend told me that he did not think small tablets and smart phones would ever amount to much ("small keyboards are useless"). I told him that eventually the technology would become compelling. Now what are the sales numbers for iphones and android phones?

Just because you can't see it doesn't mean it hasn't started happening.

 

[schonelucht]

I am feeling old, since I seem to be only the only here who remembers that the model 3 (e back then) was supposed to come in at $30k. Anyway, I am not as positive as the rest of you should the model 3 really come in at an average sales price of $60k. Two reasons : first, by then federal incentives will have run out of Tesla (or nearly so) which means a model 3 will cost on average just as much as a bare bones 70D. Yet, optimistic numbers are projecting demand that's 10x as high. I am not sure I am seeing how that would work. Secondly, the gap between $60k and $35k is quite big. This signals that the bare bones model 3 will have some serious compromises that might make it a non-starter in the market. Something like the very short lived S40. But where Tesla had the luxury of forcing their S customers to the higher tier because there was basically no competition, this won't be the case anymore when the 3 is in production. It might seriously be the case that at the low end but still reasonable EVs, the Chevy Bolt will actually deliver the best bang for the buck and become the market leader.

 

[mdemetri]

I am feeling old, since I seem to be only the only here who remembers that the model 3 (e back then) was supposed to come in at $30k. Anyway, I am not as positive as the rest of you should the model 3 really come in at an average sales price of $60k. Two reasons : first, by then federal incentives will have run out of Tesla (or nearly so) which means a model 3 will cost on average just as much as a bare bones 70D. Yet, optimistic numbers are projecting demand that's 10x as high. I am not sure I am seeing how that would work. Secondly, the gap between $60k and $35k is quite big. This signals that the bare bones model 3 will have some serious compromises that might make it a non-starter in the market. Something like the very short lived S40. But where Tesla had the luxury of forcing their S customers to the higher tier because there was basically no competition, this won't be the case anymore when the 3 is in production. It might seriously be the case that at the low end but still reasonable EVs, the Chevy Bolt will actually deliver the best bang for the buck and become the market leader.

You are comparing apples and oranges. The base Model S is $70K, a fully loaded Model S is $144.5K. The latter is over twice the price of the base model.

A base Model 3 will be $35K; a fully loaded Model 3 will likely be twice this price, or ~$60-70K.

You can get a base Model 3 for $35K, but there is no doubt that options (with higher margins) will drive the ASP much higher. I see no problem with this and is fully consistent with what Elon and Tesla have been saying for years. For the stock, the higher the ASP the better; I have no doubt that they will be able to sell 500K per year with an ASP ~$50-60K

 

[Yggdrasill]

I am feeling old, since I seem to be only the only here who remembers that the model 3 (e back then) was supposed to come in at $30k.

The adjustment was basically for inflation only ~2012-dollars vs 2017-dollars.

Anyway, I am not as positive as the rest of you should the model 3 really come in at an average sales price of $60k. Two reasons : first, by then federal incentives will have run out of Tesla (or nearly so) which means a model 3 will cost on average just as much as a bare bones 70D.

Yes, for those 35% of sales (or whatever) that will be in the US, this will be an issue 2019-ish. But not a very significant issue.

Yet, optimistic numbers are projecting demand that's 10x as high. I am not sure I am seeing how that would work. Secondly, the gap between $60k and $35k is quite big. This signals that the bare bones model 3 will have some serious compromises that might make it a non-starter in the market. Something like the very short lived S40. But where Tesla had the luxury of forcing their S customers to the higher tier because there was basically no competition, this won't be the case anymore when the 3 is in production. It might seriously be the case that at the low end but still reasonable EVs, the Chevy Bolt will actually deliver the best bang for the buck and become the market leader.

Both the S40 and S60 simply had too short a range. The base Model 3 should have around 220 miles EPA range, which is sufficient. However, if Tesla misses on this, that's pretty bad, and this is of course a risk one should consider. I don't think the risk is very concerning. We know Tesla will have access to fairly cheap batteries.

The existence of a $70,000 Model 3 doesn't mean that the $35,000 Model 3 will be compromised. The base Model 3 will be a comfortable, safe, environmentally friendly and fun car for transporting yourself and your family, both for short and long trips, with minimal operating costs. The options are for the people who want more than that. If you look at the competition at BMW, a base 3-series starts at $33,000, whereas an M3 starts at $63,000. The existence of the M3 doesn't mean the base 3-series is a bad car.

 

[Papafox]

I am feeling old, since I seem to be only the only here who remembers that the model 3 (e back then) was supposed to come in at $30k. Anyway, I am not as positive as the rest of you should the model 3 really come in at an average sales price of $60k. Two reasons : first, by then federal incentives will have run out of Tesla (or nearly so) which means a model 3 will cost on average just as much as a bare bones 70D. Yet, optimistic numbers are projecting demand that's 10x as high. I am not sure I am seeing how that would work. Secondly, the gap between $60k and $35k is quite big. This signals that the bare bones model 3 will have some serious compromises that might make it a non-starter in the market. Something like the very short lived S40. But where Tesla had the luxury of forcing their S customers to the higher tier because there was basically no competition, this won't be the case anymore when the 3 is in production. It might seriously be the case that at the low end but still reasonable EVs, the Chevy Bolt will actually deliver the best bang for the buck and become the market leader.

Elon has quoted a base price of Model 3 at $35,000, EXCLUDING federal tax credits. Chevy, on the other hand, quoted a $30,000 price for the Bolt, INCLUDING federal tax credit.

 

[MitchJi]

I am feeling old, since I seem to be only the only here who remembers that the model 3 (e back then) was supposed to come in at $30k. Anyway, I am not as positive as the rest of you should the model 3 really come in at an average sales price of $60k.

You are concerned because an analyst thinks that Tesla will miss their sales price target by almost 100%? It's a fairy tale. It is not going to happen.

 

[FredTMC]

This is the reset before the storm. Jonas has already lost all credibility, and is making random comments about things he either doesn't understand, is choosing to overlook, or is being told to misrepresent. My bet is something will be announced in the next few weeks that will surprise everyone, and will determine the direction for the next few months. Most of the comments from journalists over the past few weeks have been almost complete BS. I stand by what I've said

It would be great if there was a positive surprise soon, but I can't think of anything...Thoughts?

I highly doubt tesla will reveal Model 3 before March date.

I thought reaffirming guidance would enough to reset tesla higher.

IMO:

- Most MX sig deliveries by year end are already priced in

- GF buildout/storage is priced in