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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Valid point, agree.
It's the other way round.
But longs do not use the martial language of shorts.
Except I have never seen anyone being able to show any numbers that the Model S has any significant affect on those car sales.
I count a single 7-Series here. Can't see a S-Class.
New Owners: What was your last car? How much more was the MS than that car?
Very few Porsches, R8, SLK, 6-Series... but overall far more people come from 3/5 Series or similar or even just some Japanese car.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Bored of the same ... again.
Please provide numbers for the contrary.
It's so obvious, just go to your local Tesla shop an talk to the real people buying a Tesla, just DO it, just ask a couple of em, they are real, you can talk to them, this is not folks shopping a Fiat 500 otherwise.
Maybe someone bought an S-class before, maybe someone bought an Audi A6 before, maybe somene bought a Toyota Prius before, so what is the deal? Who cares?
Thing is, this is technically interested people (early adopters/innovaters) that are important for any brand, that build a brand name, nobody want's to loose a single potential customer that is able to spend about $100000 on a single car, and each and every Tesla Motors customer is a potential customer lost for the traditional car maufactureres. It is so unimportant to know if this person bought a 7-series, 5-series, S-class, E-class hybrid Lexus or whatever otherwise. Bottom line is: The person drivin in a Tesla is NOT driving in a Toyota, Benz, BMW or whatever. Sure, this will not really hurt the traditional car manufactureres financially immediately, but-I-do-know-for-sure that folks at BMW are already really (sorry) pissed about the success of Tesla Motors. And that is why I am very happy every time EM reiterating that he is very happy about the success for all competitors. This is fair play! That is what I love.
And again on that four "seat"er Porsch mission empossible.
Yea, go ahead and take a seat in one of the back seats, take a seat, but please do not talk, please take a seat, talk is sooo cheap.
There is less head room than for the rear facing child seats in a Model S!
A 175cm tall person permanently (!) touches the car ceiling with his/her head, that's it.
This is a plastic show car!
No adult will sit in there and go on a 500mile road trip, nobody, it is impossible, again, take a seat in the plastic show car and try it on your own, than let's talk again.
I did during this years IAA.
Really bored of all the same ... again and again.
Sorry for my bad language, English is not my mother tongue (Germans love looong words and sentences).
I am bored about all that negativity opposed to Tesla, why?
If you do not like the car, don't buy the car. There's a lot of nice gaz guzzlers out there to choose from.
If you do not like the stock, don't buy the stock. There are a lot of stocks to go long/short out there to choose from.
These made up sky is falling stories are getting really really old, don't you see this on your own?
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Your English is far better than my German.
I appreciate reading your posts that fill in what the media leaves out.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Unlike the languages of the shorts, people who are long the stock actually did legwork investigations by presenting numbers and showing up at places. These are actions and data. People who uses FUD tends to use unsubstantiated claims that are put together logically and triggers an emotional response.
I offered to do the research for shorts at $200 per hour since people are usually monolingual. I figured my multiple language skills can help them prove their short points by making the social engineering easier. But none have taken me up on the offers so far. Why? Because putting in sweat money on efforts they know do not generate any money for them (i.e. actually shorting) is not a lucrative business. And here I go, using shorts tactics against them. No effort from my part.
I am a long who boarded the first train. Back then we'd get real reports with numbers. Heck, going to an actual store and count foot traffic? Good luck finding a short who actually did that.
That's why I approve maoing's shortness. Event though it sometimes pisses me off. He actually physically went to events to get real world data.
Let's try to carry Causalien's post to the next level. For short-term trading what is the evidence that supports substantial TSLA price appreciation in the near future?
Ultimately, events that lead to a substantial revenue growth (greater than 50%) during 2016 and a return to profitability for Tesla will be keys. This growth and profitability ultimately depends upon Model X substantial Ramp-up in December and early 2016 and a Ramp-up of Tesla Energy, because Model S is unlikely to carry such substantial growth another year by itself.
* Substantial progress with Model X production ramp-up in late December
Evidence:
- Musk says there are no big obstacles standing in the way of Model X ramp-up, only the abundance of production details needed to bring this vehicle into production
- Middle row of seats production has been brought in-house, which implies Tesla will find the bright minds needed to set up substantial manufacturing of middle row of seat structural components
- Some Model X reservation holders have been asked to pay for their cars now
- Some Model X signature holders have been advised by their DS to expect December delivery
- A limited number of Founder's Edition Model X vehicles have already been delivered
- A small number of completed Model X vehicles have been spotted in the factory and outside the factory
- One third party suppliers is publicizing that Tesla Powerwalls will become available in December of 2015
The 4Q ER will tell us whether the 50-52,000 deliveries for 2015 has been met.
* Supporting evidence includes:
- Tesla was already well into 4Q when Elon told us at 3Q ER of projection for 50-52,000 vehicles delivered in 2015
- Credit Suisse analyst believes this delivery rate will be possible after he has researched
* Negative sentiment includes:
- We're practically already into 2nd week in December and no firm spin-up of Model X production has been announced yet. Will it happen?
On the flip side, what could go wrong to depress TSLA during the near-term?
* Negative macro events could have some effect
* Some unexpected glitch could arise in Model X production or certification that could cause a delay
Your thoughts?
Ultimately, events that lead to a substantial revenue growth (greater than 50%) during 2016 and a return to profitability for Tesla will be keys. This growth and profitability ultimately depends upon Model X substantial Ramp-up in December and early 2016 and a Ramp-up of Tesla Energy, because Model S is unlikely to carry such substantial growth another year by itself.
* Substantial progress with Model X production ramp-up in late December
Evidence:
- Musk says there are no big obstacles standing in the way of Model X ramp-up, only the abundance of production details needed to bring this vehicle into production
- Middle row of seats production has been brought in-house, which implies Tesla will find the bright minds needed to set up substantial manufacturing of middle row of seat structural components
- Some Model X reservation holders have been asked to pay for their cars now
- Some Model X signature holders have been advised by their DS to expect December delivery
- A limited number of Founder's Edition Model X vehicles have already been delivered
- A small number of completed Model X vehicles have been spotted in the factory and outside the factory
- One third party suppliers is publicizing that Tesla Powerwalls will become available in December of 2015
The 4Q ER will tell us whether the 50-52,000 deliveries for 2015 has been met.
* Supporting evidence includes:
- Tesla was already well into 4Q when Elon told us at 3Q ER of projection for 50-52,000 vehicles delivered in 2015
- Credit Suisse analyst believes this delivery rate will be possible after he has researched
* Negative sentiment includes:
- We're practically already into 2nd week in December and no firm spin-up of Model X production has been announced yet. Will it happen?
On the flip side, what could go wrong to depress TSLA during the near-term?
* Negative macro events could have some effect
* Some unexpected glitch could arise in Model X production or certification that could cause a delay
Your thoughts?
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Are there more people than the one starting this thread who were asked to pay?!
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/58383-Final-Payment-Time-%29?p=1263616&viewfull=1#post1263616
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/58383-Final-Payment-Time-%29?p=1263616&viewfull=1#post1263616
SebastianR
Active Member
I currently drive an Audi (long story, but essentially the Model S won't fit my driveway). It is from 2012 - so soon time to upgrade. So I asked my dealer for a full-electric Audi A6. I explained that I would like to buy an electric car of that size and that if Audi doesn't sell me one, I will go to Tesla next. You should have seen his reaction: This was not the reaction of someone who doesn't care. Maybe the Danish situation is different from other countries but he certainly moved quickly and told me all the reasons I should not buy a Tesla over an Audi...
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So far, Vangogh remains the only Model X customer to have posted about final payment being due, but I cannot imagine that Tesla would ask only one customer to pay. Surely there are others. The questions is how many others?
Could also be a mistake by a salesperson being a bit to quick sending this out, or - if this is all automated - a technical problem. Same thing though, I´d take it more seriously it if there were more messages going out, that´s why I asked.
You are just proving my point. I said it's not an 7-Series or S-Class killer, which means the Audi equivalent would be an A8.
I wrote "but overall far more people come from 3/5 Series or similar" which is exactly where an Audi A6 fits in. I never said it doesn't cost German manufactures sales.
Which is why ev-enthusiast also completely missed the point in his long reply...
No. That's exactly all that matters when you claim that the Model S is a 7-Series or S-Class killer.
SebastianR
Active Member
Fair enough. True. My example is not proving you wrong. (Of course it also doesn't prove your point - as my statement would be a necessary condition only. However I see what you are after and my situation is not helpful to prove either way).
There are two other cases I know of where I assume that Tesla cost a 7-Series and an S-Class/Porsche sale respectively:
1) Danish Minister chooses Model S as official car: http://www.fdm.dk/nyheder/elektrisk-limousine-bliver-ministerbil
2) Nicola Shelling who got in trouble for not ordering a Porsche or a Mercedes when she took office.
In both cases you could argue that it is only a "suspected kill" not a "confirmed kill". Further you could of course argue that two individual cases are not enough to prove anything ("killer" would assume a certain number of cars).
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
December production is only important for the SP in December-February, assuming Tesla can ramp in Q1-2016.
Someone on TM forum (Sign into My Tesla | Tesla Motors) posted that the new Consumer Reports for Jan 2016 has the Model S on top again for customer satisfaction at 97%. That should generate some headlines and an uptick tomorrow....
My take on Model X intel : if it doesn't come from Bonnie, I disregard the info. Simple and up till now proven very effective. She's honest, quick and clear in her communication. Tesla should hire her.
Bonnie is indeed a reliable source of information. One problem, though, is that she earned an upgrade to founder's edition of Model X through the referral program and her status as someone waiting for a founder's edition no longer makes her someone waiting at the top of the signature list for Model X. Founders who earned that position through the referral program could be handled, before, during, or after the signature deliveries. This development complicates the use of Bonnie as a barometer of signature delivery progress.
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