Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[hockeythug]

I've actually pondered quite a bit about this. Their is some pretty serious pent up demand for Model 3 and I can only envision the Tesla site crashing when the pre-order button appears. I've thought about starting a "Model 3 Ordering Strategy" thread. I would guess the best possible chance would be to attend the unveiling a la Model X and pull a Ken/Bonnie with cheque in hand and find out who is taking the orders. As I've mentioned before, I'm probably going to put in multiple orders for friends/family who will undoubtedly want a piece of the action once the details become more crystallized, but they aren't currently as fanatical as I am.

I remain convinced that Model 3 release is going to result in total ordering pandemonium.

I imagine Apple iPhone online pre-order pandemonium.

 

[austinEV]

I've actually pondered quite a bit about this. Their is some pretty serious pent up demand for Model 3 and I can only envision the Tesla site crashing when the pre-order button appears. I've thought about starting a "Model 3 Ordering Strategy" thread. I would guess the best possible chance would be to attend the unveiling a la Model X and pull a Ken/Bonnie with cheque in hand and find out who is taking the orders. As I've mentioned before, I'm probably going to put in multiple orders for friends/family who will undoubtedly want a piece of the action once the details become more crystallized, but they aren't currently as fanatical as I am.

I remain convinced that Model 3 release is going to result in total ordering pandemonium.

yeah there will be some table at some event you need to hang around with a checkbook. I assume a full on model 3 Beta unveiling. There will be some tesla people milling around being vague about why they are there. Hang around them

 

[Yonki]

I managed to make a histogram simultaneously showing Owners and Non-Owners:

using data current as of about 8:39AM PST - haven't figured out real-time updating yet.

9837264723849, if you want to add this to your spreadsheet there were basically three steps: split owners/non-owners into to separate columns, create a line graph showing both columns, then convert it to a histogram (I didn't see any way to do it directly as a histogram).

 

[MartinAustin]

OK, so, what just happened... ? $270

Is that the aforementioned short squeeze happening?

 

[AudubonB]

Anyone care to guess what the first day/week of reservations is going to be on the Model 3? I know I will try to be first in line along with thousands of others assuming I haven't bought an S/X before then. As far as the bolt, i'm happy to see other options that will be on the market but I have no interest in anything that ford/GM produces. Someone up thread made a good point, the dealers will require some sort of mandatory regular service on something so the car will be handicapped somehow, anyone have any ideas how they could force you into the dealer a couple times a year with an EV? Maybe they could require a "battery rotation", which would involve exactly nothing and cost $300.

It most definitely is incumbent upon dealers to make sure their customers come in once yearly or every 5,000 miles for a full electron flush and re-fill. Oh yes.

As far as the Model 3 - TM might have to have come up with another means for order & delivery. First, because of the expected order-of-magnitude increase in same, and second, because of margins: I don't think anyone has put forth an analysis of what it costs TM to effect each Model S - or Model X - order/configuration/delivery, but I need suppose it is a number that would be quite significant if the denominator is a Model 3-sized $35K (etc.)

 

[ibcs]

OK, so, what just happened... ? $270

Is that the aforementioned short squeeze happening?

:biggrin:

 

[ggies07]

Anyone care to guess what the first day/week of reservations is going to be on the Model 3? I know I will try to be first in line along with thousands of others assuming I haven't bought an S/X before then. As far as the bolt, i'm happy to see other options that will be on the market but I have no interest in anything that ford/GM produces. Someone up thread made a good point, the dealers will require some sort of mandatory regular service on something so the car will be handicapped somehow, anyone have any ideas how they could force you into the dealer a couple times a year with an EV? Maybe they could require a "battery rotation", which would involve exactly nothing and cost $300.

Have no clue, but as the months get closer to whatever expect month we are given the online process will open, you better believe I will be checking every day, multiple times a day. hahaha

 

[atang]

Have no clue, but as the months get closer to whatever expect month we are given the online process will open, you better believe I will be checking every day, multiple times a day. hahaha

I am buying a minimum of three, sad to say so long to a few shares!

 

[Johan]

Wrt short term action it's always very encouraging to see the sharp jumps in price with every burst of volume (like the two instances just now before noon). This signals few weak longs willing to let go of their shares. The buying could in part be shorts covering, but it must be kind of scary being short right now and seeing how much buying pressure there is.

 

[eepic]

yeah there will be some table at some event you need to hang around with a checkbook. I assume a full on model 3 Beta unveiling. There will be some tesla people milling around being vague about why they are there. Hang around them

Wondering if anyone knows if this is applicable to Canadians. If I can somehow get an invite to the Model 3 unveil, would I be able to write a cheque there for a Canadian reservation? (Of course, it would be a Canadian cheque)

 

[ggr]

Confirmed Bolt testing could hit the stock if the FUD teams hype it up http://www.cnet.com/news/chevy-confirms-chevy-bolt-ev-in-testing/

This is proof that Tesla's secret master plan is working... if anything it validates Tesla. So if the market reacts negatively, I think of it as (yet another in a long line of) buying opportunities.

 

[eepic]

Relevant to the Musk Empire, SpaceX just blogged about the "Why and How Of Landing Rockets" ahead of this Sunday's CRS-7 mission to the ISS, with another attempt at landing the rocket afterwards.

The why and how of landing rockets | SpaceX

And some keen redditor's on /r/spacex have noticed a crane next to the ASDS dock this time around, spotted from the live cam of our favourite cruise ship.
Carnival Fascination Webcams - Carnival Fascination Bridge (Forward) Webcam / Camera - Carnival Cruise Lines - CRUISIN

Could be front page of all publications Monday morning if they make it and have halo effect on Tesla.

 

[ZenMan]

Didn't see this posted anywhere:

Model X to be able to tow >10,000lbs.

Tesla Model X Towing Capacity Revealed, Its Close to What Pickups Can Deliver - autoevolution

 

[ibcs]

Relevant to the Musk Empire, SpaceX just blogged about the "Why and How Of Landing Rockets" ahead of this Sunday's CRS-7 mission to the ISS, with another attempt at landing the rocket afterwards.

The why and how of landing rockets | SpaceX

And some keen redditor's on /r/spacex have noticed a crane next to the ASDS dock this time around, spotted from the live cam of our favourite cruise ship.
Carnival Fascination Webcams - Carnival Fascination Bridge (Forward) Webcam / Camera - Carnival Cruise Lines - CRUISIN

Could be front page of all publications Monday morning if they make it and have halo effect on Tesla.

Your spy work is absolutely amazing. Beautiful picture of the landing pad. Thank you for sharing!

 

[Papafox]

I think it means we'll see a lot of people who would otherwise only spend $21,875 for a car happy to spend $35,000 for a Tesla. This would put the Model 3 within reach of the majority of US new car buyers.

Try to beat this one: prior to buying a Tesla I owned a 2002 Honda Civic (bought used in 2006) and a 1971 Datsun 240Z (bought used in 1977). I now own a 2013 Model S and a 2015 Model S, both bought new.

 

[hobbes]

I managed to make a histogram simultaneously showing Owners and Non-Owners:

Cool, good work . Can see well how the people with a Model S are more likely to own many shares.

Must say it is really fun to read this thread right now with many different contributions, not all perfectly on-topic but at the same time not one very specific thing being discussed forever.

- - - Updated - - -

Try to beat this one: prior to buying a Tesla I owned a 2002 Honda Civic (bought used in 2006) and a 1971 Datsun 240Z (bought used in 1977). I now own a 2013 Model S and a 2015 Model S, both bought new.

Not bad... I´ll try to beat it some day by going from no car to a Model S . Looks like cars appreciate the Hawaii climate as much as people do - had the pleasure once (my aunt and uncle live on Maui). Also the perfect place to own an EV as you never even have to think about range anxiety.

 

[ADP]

To the person who owns 32,800 shares, I congratulate you! If you bought in at ~$30, that's still a $1 Million investment and one hell of a risk!! You deserve to be rich!!!

 

[adiggs]

Try to beat this one: prior to buying a Tesla I owned a 2002 Honda Civic (bought used in 2006) and a 1971 Datsun 240Z (bought used in 1977). I now own a 2013 Model S and a 2015 Model S, both bought new.

I'm in the neighborhood @Papafox. My wife and I are on the Model X Signature list and have been driving a Roadster for a couple of years now. The other car that we still have is a Honda CRX from 91 or 93 (I forget which). We did buy new though on the CRX I guess the Model X will finally enable us to find a new home for the CRX.

At least for me, there isn't a car made by anybody else that I'd spend $30k for, much less $80-120k.

 

[SteveG3]

Didn't see this posted anywhere:

Model X to be able to tow >10,000lbs.

Tesla Model X Towing Capacity Revealed, Its Close to What Pickups Can Deliver - autoevolution

Good find ZenMan. As it happens, it occurred to me just earlier today there might be a pretty large but hidden motive behind GM's decision to do the Bolt... protecting their truck business. For GM and Ford (and I presume Chrysler) trucks have been cited as being the lion's share of profits (Adam Jonas has even suggested 90%, but that's Adam Jonas, so take it with a grain of salt). Perhaps the folks in Detroit aren't so much thinking 10K or 20K annual Bolt volumes are going to change their bottom line (that's all the battery supply they have at this point), but, building several years of experience and market credibility with long range electric drivetrains could appeal to them as offering a far better capacity to defend their truck market share with their own BEV trucks in the timeframe a Tesla truck comes out, rather than practically starting from scratch with BEVs at that point. This bit about how much the X can tow vs. a big truck, highlights the greater possibilities of what a dedicated BEV truck could offer. The fact that Ford, who also makes their bread and butter with trucks, is reported to have jumped in to do a direct Bolt competitor is consistent with this theory about the role trucks may be playing in these incumbents going after BEVs... Ford has far more reason to be concerned about GM doing a BEV truck in the early 2020s, than selling a few Bolts in the next few years. fwiw, Elon has more than once suggested a truck would be the next big vehicle platform to follow the Model 3. It's not a commitment, and an all new Roadster might come first, but it's been suggested a truck is on deck. Just something to think about as we currently read about GM or Ford long range BEV plans.

 

[Causalien]

Good find ZenMan. As it happens, it occurred to me just earlier today there might be a pretty large but hidden motive behind GM's decision to do the Bolt... protecting their truck business. For GM and Ford (and I presume Chrysler) trucks have been cited as being the lion's share of profits (Adam Jonas has even suggested 90%, but that's Adam Jonas, so take it with a grain of salt). Perhaps the folks in Detroit aren't so much thinking 10K or 20K annual Bolt volumes are going to change their bottom line (that's all the battery supply they have at this point), but, building several years of experience and market credibility with long range electric drivetrains could appeal to them as offering a far better capacity to defend their truck market share with their own BEV trucks in the timeframe a Tesla truck comes out, rather than practically starting from scratch with BEVs at that point. This bit about how much the X can tow vs. a big truck, highlights the greater possibilities of what a dedicated BEV truck could offer. The fact that Ford, who also makes their bread and butter with trucks, is reported to have jumped in to do a direct Bolt competitor is consistent with this theory about the role trucks may be playing in these incumbents going after BEVs... Ford has far more reason to be concerned about GM doing a BEV truck in the early 2020s, than selling a few Bolts in the next few years. fwiw, Elon has more than once suggested a truck would be the next big vehicle platform to follow the Model 3. It's not a commitment, and an all new Roadster might come first, but it's been suggested a truck is on deck. Just something to think about as we currently read about GM or Ford long range BEV plans.

Borrow the play book from apple again. Let GM and Ford duke out the truck market till one dies. Then come in serving the consumer and non professional market By iffering something beautiful but with the tiwing capability of a truck. a.k.a how apple killed blackberry.